09-20-2020, 11:31 AM
** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Brexit and BRI in Europe
This is a very sophisticated analysis of European politics.
My personal view for some time has been that there will be a "hard
Brexit," and although that seemed unlikely only few months ago, it
seems almost inevitable today. Still, I don't see a hard Brexit as
leading to a European war, although your suggestion that it could
result in border wars seems plausible.
Still, I'd have to wait and see how likely it is that disputes over
Northern Ireland tariffs or English Channel fishing grounds would lead
to full-scale war. If the neo-Nazis won control of Germany's
government then my opinion might change, but right now, sitting here
in Boston and watching Europe from a distance, I don't see enough
animus to escalate into a full war, as happened when the Nazis came to
power in the 1930s.
I believe that there's a big piece missing from your analysis, a
piece much more important than Brexit. That piece would be
China's activities in using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
to split European countries from each other.
For example, here's an interesting article from Chinese Communist
state media describing how the BRI is saving Europe from the
coronavirus:
*** Spotlight: China-Europe anti-pandemic ties set stage for economic recovery (Xinhua, 8-Sep-2020)
*** http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09...351185.htm
This article lists several European countries where BRI is playing "a
critical role in the continent's combat against the COVID-19
pandemic." Another example is China's majority investment in Greece's
strategic Piraeus port.
As usual, China is buying loyalty with BRI, but it remains to be seen
how deep that loyalty goes, when each individual country has to make
existential decisions related to war.
DaKardii Wrote:> John, how do you think Brexit will affect the WWIII alignments in
> Europe?
> I personally believe that Germany and the UK will be on opposing
> sides, and France could go either way.
> Since the end of the Franco-Prussian war in 1871, France and the
> UK have worked closely together to prevent a unified Germany from
> dominating the European continent. This common goal was the
> central reason why they were allies in both World Wars, despite
> being historic enemies. It was also the central reason why they
> both opposed German re-unification in 1990, despite the US
> supporting it. Since 1990, they have been trying to accommodate
> Germany while also serving as soft counterbalances against it.
> However, France hasn't always been so committed to
> counterbalancing Germany. Many French sympathize with Germany
> because they would prefer Europe to be dominated by a continental
> power (such as France and Germany), as opposed to a
> non-continental power (such as Russia, the UK, and the US). This
> sentiment may have been the central reason why many French
> willingly collaborated with Germany during WWII, and it was
> definitely the central reason why France was initially strongly
> opposed to the UK joining the EU in the first place.
> With Brexit completed, tensions are starting to rise between the
> EU and the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements. These
> disagreements have the potential to escalate into territorial
> disputes between the UK and the EU members bordering it,
> especially Ireland. Should that happen, Germany could use these
> disputes as a pretext to promote both further European integration
> and the creation of a "European Army" that would effectively serve
> as a way around the post-WWII restrictions on German
> rearmament. Because both the UK and most of Western Europe are in
> a crisis era, odds are such escalations will indeed occur.
> At this point, France will face a serious dilemma. On one hand, it
> supports further European integration and the formation of a
> "European Army" just as much, if not more than Germany does. But
> on the other hand, such developments would significantly increase
> the stakes of a future unbalancing of the current continental
> co-hegemony existing between the two countries. France probably
> recalls that the last time Germany was forced to share hegemony
> with another continental power (Austria) in a confederate union
> (the German Confederation), the unbalancing of that co-hegemony
> led to war. Germany decisively won that war within six weeks, and
> Austria's loss of that war caused it to undergo a slow decline
> that led to the complete collapse of its empire within three
> generations. France obviously does not want to meet the same fate
> as Austria. So, what does it do in this situation?
This is a very sophisticated analysis of European politics.
My personal view for some time has been that there will be a "hard
Brexit," and although that seemed unlikely only few months ago, it
seems almost inevitable today. Still, I don't see a hard Brexit as
leading to a European war, although your suggestion that it could
result in border wars seems plausible.
Still, I'd have to wait and see how likely it is that disputes over
Northern Ireland tariffs or English Channel fishing grounds would lead
to full-scale war. If the neo-Nazis won control of Germany's
government then my opinion might change, but right now, sitting here
in Boston and watching Europe from a distance, I don't see enough
animus to escalate into a full war, as happened when the Nazis came to
power in the 1930s.
I believe that there's a big piece missing from your analysis, a
piece much more important than Brexit. That piece would be
China's activities in using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
to split European countries from each other.
For example, here's an interesting article from Chinese Communist
state media describing how the BRI is saving Europe from the
coronavirus:
*** Spotlight: China-Europe anti-pandemic ties set stage for economic recovery (Xinhua, 8-Sep-2020)
*** http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09...351185.htm
This article lists several European countries where BRI is playing "a
critical role in the continent's combat against the COVID-19
pandemic." Another example is China's majority investment in Greece's
strategic Piraeus port.
As usual, China is buying loyalty with BRI, but it remains to be seen
how deep that loyalty goes, when each individual country has to make
existential decisions related to war.
