09-27-2020, 09:43 PM
*** 28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
****
![[Image: g200927b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200927b.jpg)
Baku, Ajerbaijan, in July 2020 -- demonstrators storm the national parliament, demanding war against Armemia (Getty)
Heavy fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting
early Sunday. There were brief clashes in July of this year, and a
larger clash in 2016, but this is the worst clash since the bloody
Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 1994. There are fears that this could
spiral into a larger regional war, especially if Turkey or Russia gets
involved. Turkey issued a statement that it would support Azerbaijan
in a conflict, and this led Armenia to issue a warning of "full-scale
war."
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia.
Even when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were member states of
the Soviet Union, there was tension over Nagorno-Karabakh. However,
when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an extremely bloody
war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and defeated the
Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in hundreds of thousands
of people displaced or killed.
The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded in a fairly typical way, with periods of peace
alternating with periods of low-level violence that grow worse with
each iteration. In typical situations, this process continues until
at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the survivors of the
war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out. In this case, a
new war would not be anticipated until at least 2052.
Sunday's clashes resulted in dozens of deaths, including civilians.
As is usual in these situations, each side is blaming the other
for firing the first shot. However, several analysts are pointing
out that Azerbaijan has been signaling this kind of attack since
July, while Armenia really has nothing to gain by launching
this clash.
****
**** Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia
****
The countries are in a generational Awakening era, and so there are
too many traumatized survivors of the last war still alive, and they
will do everything possible to keep the low-level clashes from
escalating into another full-scale war, despite demands for war from
younger people to recover Karabakh, as shown in the photo at the
beginning of this article.
However, that could change if other countries get involved. Russia,
Iran, France and the EU have offered to mediate. Russia has good
relations with both former Soviet countries, although it has closer
relations with its Orthodox Christian sister Armenia and has a
military base in Armenia. But Russia is expected to stay neutral
unless Turkey gets involved.
Turkey issued several statements on Sunday that Turkey was ready to
side with its Turkic brother, Azerbaijan, if war breaks out.
Turkey's Ministry of Defense said:
<QUOTE>"In the struggle to protect the territorial integrity,
we will remain in the ranks with our brothers, the Azerbaijani
Turks, to the end."<END QUOTE>
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on his Twitter page:
<QUOTE>"By carrying out another attack on Azerbaijan, Armenia
reaffirmed that it is a great obstacle on the way to peace and
stability. I call on the Armenian people to use their future
against the government, which is pulling them into the abyss of
disaster, and those who use them as puppets. At the same time, I
call on the whole world to support Azerbaijan, which is fighting
against despotism and injustice."<END QUOTE>
Armenia says that it will defend its "sacred homeland," the Republic
of Artsakh, because "we must defend our homeland and our families."
Armenia declared martial law and mobilized its male populations to
prepare for war.
A full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would destablize the
entire southern Caucasus region, and perhaps the Mideast as well.
The Generational Dynamics analysis is that this clash will fizzle
within a few days or weeks or maybe a few months, and will not
escalate into full-scale war. That could change if it turns into a
proxy war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are already at
war in Syria and Libya, and have been historical enemies in the
Caucasus for centuries.
---- Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Iran, France, Artsakh
Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
- Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia
****
**** Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
****
Baku, Ajerbaijan, in July 2020 -- demonstrators storm the national parliament, demanding war against Armemia (Getty)
Heavy fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting
early Sunday. There were brief clashes in July of this year, and a
larger clash in 2016, but this is the worst clash since the bloody
Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 1994. There are fears that this could
spiral into a larger regional war, especially if Turkey or Russia gets
involved. Turkey issued a statement that it would support Azerbaijan
in a conflict, and this led Armenia to issue a warning of "full-scale
war."
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia.
Even when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were member states of
the Soviet Union, there was tension over Nagorno-Karabakh. However,
when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an extremely bloody
war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and defeated the
Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in hundreds of thousands
of people displaced or killed.
The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded in a fairly typical way, with periods of peace
alternating with periods of low-level violence that grow worse with
each iteration. In typical situations, this process continues until
at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the survivors of the
war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out. In this case, a
new war would not be anticipated until at least 2052.
Sunday's clashes resulted in dozens of deaths, including civilians.
As is usual in these situations, each side is blaming the other
for firing the first shot. However, several analysts are pointing
out that Azerbaijan has been signaling this kind of attack since
July, while Armenia really has nothing to gain by launching
this clash.
****
**** Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia
****
The countries are in a generational Awakening era, and so there are
too many traumatized survivors of the last war still alive, and they
will do everything possible to keep the low-level clashes from
escalating into another full-scale war, despite demands for war from
younger people to recover Karabakh, as shown in the photo at the
beginning of this article.
However, that could change if other countries get involved. Russia,
Iran, France and the EU have offered to mediate. Russia has good
relations with both former Soviet countries, although it has closer
relations with its Orthodox Christian sister Armenia and has a
military base in Armenia. But Russia is expected to stay neutral
unless Turkey gets involved.
Turkey issued several statements on Sunday that Turkey was ready to
side with its Turkic brother, Azerbaijan, if war breaks out.
Turkey's Ministry of Defense said:
<QUOTE>"In the struggle to protect the territorial integrity,
we will remain in the ranks with our brothers, the Azerbaijani
Turks, to the end."<END QUOTE>
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on his Twitter page:
<QUOTE>"By carrying out another attack on Azerbaijan, Armenia
reaffirmed that it is a great obstacle on the way to peace and
stability. I call on the Armenian people to use their future
against the government, which is pulling them into the abyss of
disaster, and those who use them as puppets. At the same time, I
call on the whole world to support Azerbaijan, which is fighting
against despotism and injustice."<END QUOTE>
Armenia says that it will defend its "sacred homeland," the Republic
of Artsakh, because "we must defend our homeland and our families."
Armenia declared martial law and mobilized its male populations to
prepare for war.
A full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would destablize the
entire southern Caucasus region, and perhaps the Mideast as well.
The Generational Dynamics analysis is that this clash will fizzle
within a few days or weeks or maybe a few months, and will not
escalate into full-scale war. That could change if it turns into a
proxy war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are already at
war in Syria and Libya, and have been historical enemies in the
Caucasus for centuries.
---- Sources:
- Armenia and Azerbaijan erupt into fighting over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh (BBC, 27-Sep-2020)
- Security Alert – U.S. Embassy Yerevan, Armenia (US Embassy in Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Armenia / Azerbaijan / Nagorno-Karabakh declares martial law as violence erupts (Deutsche Welle, 27-Sep-2020)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes could affect wider Middle East - analysis (Jerusalem Post, 27-Sep-2020)
- Azerbaijan, Armenia on War Footing After Casualties in Heavy Fighting (AFP, 27-Sep-2020)
- Clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan threaten South Caucasus stability (Reuters, 27-Sep-2020)
- Azerbaijan protesters demand war after Armenia clashes (BBC, 15-Jul-2020)
- PKK’s involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict would jeopardize European security (EUReporter, 23-Sep-2020)
- Turkish MFA: We will remain with our brothers, Azerbaijani Turks, till end (Trend, Azerbaijan, 27-Sep-2020)
- President Erdogan: Turkey with all its capacities close to Azerbaijan (Trend, Azerbaijan, 27-Sep-2020)
- Turkish Parliament Speaker: Armenia - terrorist state that threatens not only Azerbaijan (Trend, Azerbaijan, 27-Sep-2020)
- Conflict Between Armenia And Azerbaijan Threatens Europe’s Energy Security (Oil Price, 7-Sep-2020)
- Clashes break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over disputed region (CNN, 27-Sep-2020)
- [Statement regarding Armenian Attacks on Azerbaijan Which Started This Morning] (MFA, Turkey, 27-Sep-2020)
- Azerbaijan, Armenia fight over disputed region as tanks destroyed, helicopters shot down (Fox News, 27-Sep-2020)
- Nagorno-Karabakh will be defending every single inch of their land – Armenia FM tells Al Jazeera (Armradio, Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Armenia / Azerbaijan / Artsakh declares martial law and general mobilization (Armradio, Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Armenia / Azerbaijan / Large-Scale Fighting Breaks Out Around Karabakh (Azatutyun, Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Greece urges to immediately stop military operations in Nagorno Karabakh (ArmenPress, 27-Sep-2020)
- Armenia / Nagorno-Karabakh shoots down Azerbaijani air vehicles (Tert, Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Sixteen soldiers of Karabakh Defense Army killed and another 100 wounded in fighting with Azerbaijani army (ArkaNewsAgency-am, 27-Sep-2020)
- European Friends of Armenia / EuFoA strongly condemns the attacks launched by Azerbaijan against the entire Line of Contact with Nagorno Karabakh (Lragir, Armenia, 27-Sep-2020)
- Nagorno-Karabakh: The Crisis in the Caucasus (CouncilOnForeignRelations, 3-Nov-2005)
- Nagorno-Karabakh: Timeline Of The Long Road To Peace (RFE/RL, 10-Feb-2006)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes: Live news (Al-Jazeera, 27-Sep-2020)
Related Articles:
- Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (17-Jul-2020)
- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave (11-Jul-2018)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Iran, France, Artsakh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
