10-02-2020, 01:34 PM
** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Effect on markets
The chances of Trump surviving are very high, much higher than
they were even three months ago, thanks to all the therapeutic
treatments that are now available. The most likely worst scenario
is Trump being isolated or convalescing for 2-4 weeks.
I do not expect this illness to cause a panic. This kind of event is
easily handled by Wall Street.
If Trump does die, before or after the election, then Pence will take
his place. The election will take place as scheduled. People don't
vote for the president. They vote for electors who vote for the
president.
If both Trump and Pence die, then Pelosi becomes president. That's
what the Democrats want.
richard5za Wrote:> always like to think through possible outcomes before they happen
> even if the probability is very low. The issue is Trump testing
> positive for Covid It could change the election dramatically? What
> does American election law say? Would the election be delayed?
> What if Trump dies? Say death is before the election will it be
> Pence versus Biden? After the election if Trump wins then
> presumably Pence is President? Of course my primary interest is
> the effects upon the markets? The uncertainty could hasten the
> impending crash, and no doubt this would become political
> too.
The chances of Trump surviving are very high, much higher than
they were even three months ago, thanks to all the therapeutic
treatments that are now available. The most likely worst scenario
is Trump being isolated or convalescing for 2-4 weeks.
I do not expect this illness to cause a panic. This kind of event is
easily handled by Wall Street.
If Trump does die, before or after the election, then Pence will take
his place. The election will take place as scheduled. People don't
vote for the president. They vote for electors who vote for the
president.
If both Trump and Pence die, then Pelosi becomes president. That's
what the Democrats want.
