10-02-2020, 01:36 PM
** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Russian and Ottoman empires
I think that this analysis is correct. However, when I said that the
conflict would probably fizzle, I certainly didn't mean within four
days. I mean that it's likely to fizzle over the next few weeks or
months, or even over a couple of years. The point is that it won't
escalate into a full-scale crisis war -- unless it turns into a major
war between Russia and Turkey.
I'm trying to think what you mean by this, since I don't recall
making that assertion in exactly that way. In fact, since both
empires consist of multiple nations, even all the nations within
the same empire would not have the same timeline.
What I think you're referring to is theoretical discussions of
how timelines merge over a period of centuries, and how most
timelines have merged into what I call a WW I timeline and a
WW II timeline. However, these are generalizations, and each nation
must be analyzed separately. For example Iran and Turkey are on
the "WW I timeline," but Iran's crisis war climaxed in 1909, and
Turkey's in 1922.
The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their
crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred
in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia
are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another
crisis war, and are overdue for one.
DaKardii Wrote:> John, in my opinion the only reason this conflict has escalated
> (rather than died down as you previously predicted) is because of
> Turkey's meddling. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Awakening eras,
> but Turkey is in a Crisis era. Armenia and Azerbaijan don't want
> war, but Turkey does. And what's a better way to escalate things
> than deploying al-Qaeda-affiliated militants from Syria who have
> no business to even be there?
I think that this analysis is correct. However, when I said that the
conflict would probably fizzle, I certainly didn't mean within four
days. I mean that it's likely to fizzle over the next few weeks or
months, or even over a couple of years. The point is that it won't
escalate into a full-scale crisis war -- unless it turns into a major
war between Russia and Turkey.
DaKardii Wrote:> You have previously asserted that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire should all be on the same timeline. But
> based on my personal observations, that does not appear to be the
> case.
> Turkey, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, did not have an
> existential crisis in the '90s. It is having such a crisis only
> now, 25 years later. This means that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire, if they were ever on the on the same
> timeline to begin with, went in separate directions at some point,
> probably due to the ways they were affected by the Cold War.
> Either the former Russian Empire's timeline was accelerated by
> Communist policies, or the former Ottoman Empire's timeline was
> slowed down due to incessant interventions by both sides of the
> Cold War (and by the West alone after 1991).
I'm trying to think what you mean by this, since I don't recall
making that assertion in exactly that way. In fact, since both
empires consist of multiple nations, even all the nations within
the same empire would not have the same timeline.
What I think you're referring to is theoretical discussions of
how timelines merge over a period of centuries, and how most
timelines have merged into what I call a WW I timeline and a
WW II timeline. However, these are generalizations, and each nation
must be analyzed separately. For example Iran and Turkey are on
the "WW I timeline," but Iran's crisis war climaxed in 1909, and
Turkey's in 1922.
The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their
crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred
in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia
are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another
crisis war, and are overdue for one.
