10-02-2020, 01:38 PM
** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires
This is very inspirational, almost poetic. You ought to turn it into
a book.
This is Arnold J. Toynbee's view of history, of the rise and fall of
empires. I've been developing Generational Dynamics for almost 20
years now. 20 years ago, I would have agreed with Toynbee's view.
But now I look at things quite differently. Instead of looking at
entire nation empires -- Roman Empire, British Empire, etc. -- look at
civilizations. You can start the Western civilization from Athens and
Crete in ancient Greece, see it move to the Roman Empire, move to
various European empires, to the British empire, and to the American
empire. When you look at it that way, there's been only one empire --
the Western Civilization Empire -- and it's survived for many
millennia, but has only suffered minor changes in terms of internal
national boundaries, capital cities, and so forth.
Whatever happens in WW III, I would expect the Western Civilization
Empire to continue to exist and to lead the world.
But you're suggesting something different, that a new Empire will lead
the world, what we might call the "Asian Civilization Empire." I
believe that this was Toynbee's view, and 20 years ago I think I
probably agreed with it. But not today.
I've now spent 20 years developing Generational Dynamics, and I've
written thousands of articles analyzing China and other Asian
countries. I've also spent many thousands of hours of research to
write my book on "War between China and Japan," and also the book that
I'm currently writing on Vietnam.
And my conclusion is unequivocal: Asian countries are incompetent to
govern themselves, and couldn't hope to come close to governing an
empire.
China is the obvious choice, but China has a chronic, corrosive core
illness that makes it impossible for China ever to do anything but go
insane and self-destruct. That core illness has a name: Confucianism.
Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from
heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader
has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government
rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is
barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as
donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian
Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.
It's common to identify Confucianism as a religion, as opposed to
Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. But the Chinese make it clear that
they do not view it that way. The opposite of Confucianism is not
Christianity. It's Democracy. The Chinese Communists, who are the
current incarnation of Confucianism, view Democracy as an evil
ideology whose purpose is to destroy Confucianism.
Western religions like Christianity are evil to Confucians because
they encourage the evil of Democracy.
Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy. It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.
Guest Wrote:> The rise and fall of nations and empires, an endless procession
> throughout 5,000 years of human civilisation. What were the
> chances of the US being the first nation to maintain this position
> in the history of human civilisation? Almost zero.
> A new nation becomes an old nation. The pie has been carved and
> an established elite look to pull up the drawbridge to keep
> themselves in the very comfortable position they are in
> now. Social mobility is at the same atrocious level as the UK and
> they use the same mechanisms for social stratification, private
> schools and universities (they take no chances in the US).
> Can you think of anyone at the top in the US that didn’t go to an
> Ivy League University? The generations that made fortunes fade
> into the past to be replaced by generations that inherit
> fortunes. Capitalist dynamism is replaced by rent seeking, as the
> idea now is to conserve fortunes rather than make fortunes; the
> world of finance dominates to meet this goal.
> Finance allows the wealthy to use their money to make more money.
> Where can they get the best return on their investments? In the
> new dynamic nations of Asia, not in their own country.
> To conserve fortunes they move taxes off themselves and onto
> labour making their own nation internationally uncompetitive. They
> don’t like paying taxes and preside over a decline in the
> infrastructure that was built when the nation was young and
> dynamic.
> They even look on the existing businesses, that are now on the
> stock market, as a revenue stream and these businesses are there
> for them to cannibalise for personal gain. The activist
> shareholders try and rip the heart out of the real economy until
> it collapses and dies.
> Those old US industrialists who made their fortunes from the real
> economy, making useful things and providing useful services will
> be spinning in their graves.
> It is the cycle of nations and empires: Dynamism, success,
> complacency and decay. Adios America. Hello China (not that China
> will be any different, it is the endless procession).
> We (the UK) were the global superpower before the US, look at us
> now!
This is very inspirational, almost poetic. You ought to turn it into
a book.
This is Arnold J. Toynbee's view of history, of the rise and fall of
empires. I've been developing Generational Dynamics for almost 20
years now. 20 years ago, I would have agreed with Toynbee's view.
But now I look at things quite differently. Instead of looking at
entire nation empires -- Roman Empire, British Empire, etc. -- look at
civilizations. You can start the Western civilization from Athens and
Crete in ancient Greece, see it move to the Roman Empire, move to
various European empires, to the British empire, and to the American
empire. When you look at it that way, there's been only one empire --
the Western Civilization Empire -- and it's survived for many
millennia, but has only suffered minor changes in terms of internal
national boundaries, capital cities, and so forth.
Whatever happens in WW III, I would expect the Western Civilization
Empire to continue to exist and to lead the world.
But you're suggesting something different, that a new Empire will lead
the world, what we might call the "Asian Civilization Empire." I
believe that this was Toynbee's view, and 20 years ago I think I
probably agreed with it. But not today.
I've now spent 20 years developing Generational Dynamics, and I've
written thousands of articles analyzing China and other Asian
countries. I've also spent many thousands of hours of research to
write my book on "War between China and Japan," and also the book that
I'm currently writing on Vietnam.
And my conclusion is unequivocal: Asian countries are incompetent to
govern themselves, and couldn't hope to come close to governing an
empire.
China is the obvious choice, but China has a chronic, corrosive core
illness that makes it impossible for China ever to do anything but go
insane and self-destruct. That core illness has a name: Confucianism.
Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from
heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader
has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government
rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is
barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as
donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian
Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.
It's common to identify Confucianism as a religion, as opposed to
Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. But the Chinese make it clear that
they do not view it that way. The opposite of Confucianism is not
Christianity. It's Democracy. The Chinese Communists, who are the
current incarnation of Confucianism, view Democracy as an evil
ideology whose purpose is to destroy Confucianism.
Western religions like Christianity are evil to Confucians because
they encourage the evil of Democracy.
Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy. It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.
