Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-07-2020, 08:26 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy.  It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.

The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance.  Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when you win wars with large numbers of minimally armed troops that you only trust because they have a stake in your government.

That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to nuclear weapons.

Training time was also a factor, as well as the amount of effort you had to put into agriculture to survive.  Eventually, you could free up a larger part of the population to serve in your army.  At that point, armed citizens started to develop rights.  The more the roundheads promised to the people, the more the cavaliers got in trouble.  Before that effect started developing, we were stuck for a long time in the Agricultural Age.

China...  They had quite a time of troubles from the Opium Wars through Mao's death.  Life was ugly.  Everybody who has a cultural memory of that time frame is going to be reluctant to embrace violence and revolution.  That is why the CCP remains in power.  The people have not tried to gain the power of democracy.  I have a feeling that it is a matter of time, but that time is still a ways off.

Not clear that anyone sees profit in nukes.  If you believe xenophobia and ideology alone drive wars, maybe a nuke war may start.  With the elites trying to make a profit it seems less likely.  Somewhere between the machine gun and the nukes, war became not cost effective for the leaders or the elites.  At that point wars among major powers became more rare, and when they did take place a defensive proxy insurgent conflict blocked colonial imperialism.  The dynamic has changed.