10-10-2020, 08:57 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2020, 06:09 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
****
![[Image: g201010b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g201010b.jpg)
Topographical map of the Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (Al-Jazeera)
A temporary truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mostly successful
on Saturday, although each side accused the other of violating the
ceasefire.
The ceasefire was mediated by Russia, which applied heavy pressure to
both sides to accept the agreement. It's being described as a
humanitarian ceasefire, to permit the two sides to exchange prisoners,
and for the Red Cross to remove dead bodies. Also, it will give both
sides time to reload and resupply their weapons in preparation for the
next round of fighting.
The two countries are fighting over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh
("highland Karabakh") province and seven adjacent regions within
Azerbaijan territory that are populated and governed by Armenians.
The two countries used to be member states of the Soviet Union, which
collapsed in 1991. A major war was fought between the two countries,
and it ended in stalemate in 1994, under pressure from Russia.
There have been occasional outbursts of fighting since then, but the
fighting that began on September 27 of this year is the worst so far
since 1994.
Armenia says that its objective is that Nagorno-Karabakh should be
recognized internationally as an independent state, Artsakh. That
isn't going to happen.
****
**** Azerbaijan's objectives
****
Azerbaijan says that its objective is to gain full control of the
enclave, as it is Azerbaijan territory. According to a number of tv
analysts, Azerbaijan officials feel that this objective is within its
grasp. Several of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh have already
been captured by the Azeri army.
In 1994, when Russia mediated a ceasefire, Armenia was much more
militarily powerful than Azerbaijan, and was able to take over
Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the situations are reversed today, and
Azerbaijan is more powerful militarily, according to these analysts.
Furthermore, the international community is supportive of Azerbaijan
since Nagorno-Karabakh is officially Azeri territory.
Turkey is supporting its Turkic brother Azerbaijan, and has promised
to provide military aid if necessary. Furthermore, Turkey has little
concern about good relations with Armenia, having been accused of
genocide against the Armenian people in 1915.
Russia is close to its Eastern Orthodox Christian sister Armenia, and
has a military base in Armenia, but wants to maintain good relations
with both countries. Russia is applying maximum pressure to both
sides to keep the ceasefire going, but it seems unlikely that the
ceasefire will continue much longer.
One analyst suggested that there's "horse-trading" going on. For
example, Russia may convince Armenia to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in
return for Turkey pulling its forces out of Syria. That's an
interesting idea -- then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in
Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in
the 1990s, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could continue with
its genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Syria's Idlib
province. That would be an explosive development, so I do not believe
that this particular version of "horse-trading" is likely.
Meanwhile, there are other things going on in the world. I'm working
every spare minute to finish up my book on Vietnam. Kyrgyzstan's
government has collapsed, and people are rioting, because of alleged
election fraud. China is stepping up warplane flights threatening
Taiwan, is demanding that US ships stop entering international waters
in the South China Sea illegally claimed by China, and is arresting
anyone in Hong Kong who dares to criticize Beijing. The United States
is locked into an election campaign circus, and Americans are
generally completely oblivious to anything going on in the world. And
many countries are trying to avoid more lockdowns, as cases of Wuhan
Coronavirus have been surging in many countries, especially in Europe.
And that's the way it is.
Sources:
Related Articles:
[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria
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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Azerbaijan's objectives
****
**** Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
****
Topographical map of the Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (Al-Jazeera)
A temporary truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mostly successful
on Saturday, although each side accused the other of violating the
ceasefire.
The ceasefire was mediated by Russia, which applied heavy pressure to
both sides to accept the agreement. It's being described as a
humanitarian ceasefire, to permit the two sides to exchange prisoners,
and for the Red Cross to remove dead bodies. Also, it will give both
sides time to reload and resupply their weapons in preparation for the
next round of fighting.
The two countries are fighting over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh
("highland Karabakh") province and seven adjacent regions within
Azerbaijan territory that are populated and governed by Armenians.
The two countries used to be member states of the Soviet Union, which
collapsed in 1991. A major war was fought between the two countries,
and it ended in stalemate in 1994, under pressure from Russia.
There have been occasional outbursts of fighting since then, but the
fighting that began on September 27 of this year is the worst so far
since 1994.
Armenia says that its objective is that Nagorno-Karabakh should be
recognized internationally as an independent state, Artsakh. That
isn't going to happen.
****
**** Azerbaijan's objectives
****
Azerbaijan says that its objective is to gain full control of the
enclave, as it is Azerbaijan territory. According to a number of tv
analysts, Azerbaijan officials feel that this objective is within its
grasp. Several of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh have already
been captured by the Azeri army.
In 1994, when Russia mediated a ceasefire, Armenia was much more
militarily powerful than Azerbaijan, and was able to take over
Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the situations are reversed today, and
Azerbaijan is more powerful militarily, according to these analysts.
Furthermore, the international community is supportive of Azerbaijan
since Nagorno-Karabakh is officially Azeri territory.
Turkey is supporting its Turkic brother Azerbaijan, and has promised
to provide military aid if necessary. Furthermore, Turkey has little
concern about good relations with Armenia, having been accused of
genocide against the Armenian people in 1915.
Russia is close to its Eastern Orthodox Christian sister Armenia, and
has a military base in Armenia, but wants to maintain good relations
with both countries. Russia is applying maximum pressure to both
sides to keep the ceasefire going, but it seems unlikely that the
ceasefire will continue much longer.
One analyst suggested that there's "horse-trading" going on. For
example, Russia may convince Armenia to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in
return for Turkey pulling its forces out of Syria. That's an
interesting idea -- then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in
Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in
the 1990s, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could continue with
its genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Syria's Idlib
province. That would be an explosive development, so I do not believe
that this particular version of "horse-trading" is likely.
Meanwhile, there are other things going on in the world. I'm working
every spare minute to finish up my book on Vietnam. Kyrgyzstan's
government has collapsed, and people are rioting, because of alleged
election fraud. China is stepping up warplane flights threatening
Taiwan, is demanding that US ships stop entering international waters
in the South China Sea illegally claimed by China, and is arresting
anyone in Hong Kong who dares to criticize Beijing. The United States
is locked into an election campaign circus, and Americans are
generally completely oblivious to anything going on in the world. And
many countries are trying to avoid more lockdowns, as cases of Wuhan
Coronavirus have been surging in many countries, especially in Europe.
And that's the way it is.
Sources:
- Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan shaky ceasefire in force (BBC, 10-Oct-2020)
- Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating ceasefire (Al-Jazeera, 10-Oct-2020)
- Fresh Azerbaijani shelling shatters peace after fragile ceasefire agreed (Guardian, London, 10-Oct-2020)
- Live Updates: Two Blasts Heard in Nagorno-Karabakh Capital Despite Ceasefire Agreement (Sputnik News, Moscow, 10-Oct-2020)
- Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Accusations Over Karabakh Ceasefire (Moscow Times, 10-Oct-2020)
Related Articles:
- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (28-Sep-2020)
- Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (17-Jul-2020)
- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave (11-Jul-2018)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
