Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Oct-2020 World View: Azerbaijan-Armenia escalation brings calls for US to intervene

• Map of Nagorno-Karabakh battlefield (Al-Jazeera)

A week ago, Russia mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia in
the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions. These areas are
officially part of Azerbaijan, but they are occupied and governed by
Armenians, since the 1991-1994 war.

That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.

During the last week, Azerbaijan, aided by Turkey, has made progress
on the ground, capturing regions outside of and adjacent to
Nagorno-Karabakh that have been populated and controlled by ethnic
Armenians since the 1994 truce.

Yesterday, on Saturday, France mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and
Armenia in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions.

That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.

It's now widely believed that without some sort of international
intervention, the war will continue to escalate.

I've heard several different journalists on BBC and al-Jazeera
opine as follows (paraphrasing):

Quote:> "Some kind of international intervention is required.
> Russia has failed to bring about a ceasefire. France has failed
> to bring about a ceasefire. There's only one major actor in the
> international community that we haven't heard from, and that's the
> United States. Many analysts are calling on the United States to
> intervene, lest this become a major war."

There are all kinds of ironies in statements like this.

First, if the US did intervene somehow, these same journalists and
analysts would be whining about US imperialism. That's the way it's
always been in the decades following WW II, since the 1947
announcement of the Truman Doctrine, later reaffirmed by president
Kennedy in his "ask not" speech, that said that it's better to fight a
small war now to prevent WW III later, making the United States into
Policeman of the World.

Second, the US is in the middle of an election circus, and no one
outside of Secretary of State James Pompeo is even paying attention to
what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he did say on Thursday
that he hoped Armenia could "defend" itself against Azerbaijan in the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, adding that Turkey’s role had
increased the risk of further violence.

Third, those calling for US intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh don't
specify what form that intervention would take, beyond Pompeo's
statement. SURELY they don't mean some sort of military action by the
US. Maybe they mean sanctions on Turkey, but there already are
sanctions on Turkey, and further sanctions would only infuriate them.
So it seems very unlikely that the US will get involved, despite the
wishes of some in the "international community."

The following is my guess as to how the war will proceed: Azerbaijan,
aided and encouraged by Turkey, will continue to gain territory. The
fighting may pause due to some international agreement for a few weeks
or months, but eventually Azerbaijan will take control of Karabakh and
adjacent regions. At that point, the Azeris who lost their homes in
the 1994 ceasefire will demand the right to return, and will demand
revenge for what they view as Armenian atrocities. This will lead to
the issue of revenge atrocities and ethnic cleansing.

That's my guess as to the most likely path of the Nagorno-Karabakh
war, unless the war is overtaken by other events -- such as World War
III with China.

---- Sources:

-- Pompeo hopes Armenia can 'defend' itself from Azerbaijan
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...abakh.html
(AlMonitor, 16-Oct-2020)

-- Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating truce
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1...o-karabakh
(A-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)

-- Azerbaijan says it shot down another Armenian fighter jet: Live
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1...o-karabakh
(Al-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)

-- Armenia, Azerbaijan blame each other for truce violations
https://apnews.com/article/international...9511bfdba0
(AP, 18-Oct-2020)

---- Related articles:

*** 11-Oct-2020 World View: Response to Azerbaijan-Armenia article
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=54944#p54944

** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e201011