10-22-2020, 07:35 PM
** 21-Oct-2020 World View: Thailand and CCP
Gee, did I evade that question last time?
It's not clear what "side with the CCP" would even mean. We can
assume that Thailand will be pro-CCP based on the current government,
but we know that governments end, and that the course of great events
is determined not by the politicians, but by the generations of
people, the populations. So based on the fact that 3/4 of the
population are the Thai-Thai indigenous red shirt majority, I would
expect that Thailand would resist getting into fights on China's
behalf, especially since Thailand is currently not in a generational
Crisis era, but in a generational Unraveling era, when wars are
resisted.
So, first of all, Thailand will try to stay neutral. If they're
successful in that, then they'll stay out of the war entirely, just as
Switzerland did in WW II.
However, if Thailand is forced into war, it will most likely be with
its traditional enemies -- Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, and perhaps
Burma. In those cases, it's not clear which side China will be on, or
whether China will even care, given its wars with Japan and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has vowed to recover all of China's sacred historical
territory (just like Hitler wanted Austria and Poland), and that may
result in Chinese troops fighting with or against Thai troops,
depending on whose territory China is trying to illegally annex.
So I guess what I'm saying is that I really don't know, and that it
depends on how events unfold. In the case of countries like Russia
and Iran, there are centuries of historic trends to look at, but you
don't have anything like that in the Southeast Asian countries, which
are a jumble of Chinese, Indian and Muslim influences that have been
pasteurized and homogenized in different countries to produce
indigenous fault lines that are years or decades old, but not
centuries or millennia old, and could change very quickly, if the
country faces an existential threat.
DaKardii Wrote:> But do you believe that the current Thai government (and the
> factions behind it) will side with the CCP in the upcoming war?
Gee, did I evade that question last time?
It's not clear what "side with the CCP" would even mean. We can
assume that Thailand will be pro-CCP based on the current government,
but we know that governments end, and that the course of great events
is determined not by the politicians, but by the generations of
people, the populations. So based on the fact that 3/4 of the
population are the Thai-Thai indigenous red shirt majority, I would
expect that Thailand would resist getting into fights on China's
behalf, especially since Thailand is currently not in a generational
Crisis era, but in a generational Unraveling era, when wars are
resisted.
So, first of all, Thailand will try to stay neutral. If they're
successful in that, then they'll stay out of the war entirely, just as
Switzerland did in WW II.
However, if Thailand is forced into war, it will most likely be with
its traditional enemies -- Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, and perhaps
Burma. In those cases, it's not clear which side China will be on, or
whether China will even care, given its wars with Japan and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has vowed to recover all of China's sacred historical
territory (just like Hitler wanted Austria and Poland), and that may
result in Chinese troops fighting with or against Thai troops,
depending on whose territory China is trying to illegally annex.
So I guess what I'm saying is that I really don't know, and that it
depends on how events unfold. In the case of countries like Russia
and Iran, there are centuries of historic trends to look at, but you
don't have anything like that in the Southeast Asian countries, which
are a jumble of Chinese, Indian and Muslim influences that have been
pasteurized and homogenized in different countries to produce
indigenous fault lines that are years or decades old, but not
centuries or millennia old, and could change very quickly, if the
country faces an existential threat.
