11-11-2020, 12:12 AM
*** 11-Nov-20 World View -- Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
****
![[Image: g201110b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g201110b.jpg)
Map of Azerbaijan and Armenia, showing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region (BBC)
Armenia has agreed to a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal with Azerbaijan,
mediated by Russia, rather than face a complete military debacle.
Azerbaijani military forces have achieved a string of victories in
capturing cities and villages around Nagorno-Karabakh. On Sunday,
Azerbaijani forces captured Shusha (Shushi), the region's
second-largest town, and were close to attacking the Nagorno-Karabakh
capital city Stepanakert, which is on the main road to Armenia.
Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly
painful both for both me and our people." He added, "The army said
that we had to stop, because there are problems for which there are no
solution, and the army was out of resources."
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said “This (ceasefire) agreement
has historic significance. This agreement constitutes Armenia’s
capitulation. This agreement puts an end to the years-long
occupation."
Vagram Pogosian, a spokesman for the Armenian government in
Nagorno-Karabakh, said "Unfortunately, we are forced to admit that a
series of failures still haunt us, and the city of Shushi is
completely out of our control. The enemy is on the outskirts of
Stepanakert.”
Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, "We will stand
alongside Azerbaijan. This is a great success, a victory for
Azerbaijan. Territories that were under occupation for 30 years are
being taken back."
This is the fourth mediated cease-fire agreement on the last three
months. The previous ones lasted only a day. There are two things
that make this one different. First, there is the lingering threat
the Azerbaijani military forces will continue on to Stepanakert and
take control of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. And second,
Russia is deploying its own military forces to separate the two sides
and prevent a resumption of fighting.
****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh's standard generational pattern
****
This is actually the next step in a standard generational pattern.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an
extremely bloody war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and
defeated the Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in
hundreds of thousands of people displaced or killed.
The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded according to a standard generational pattern, with
periods of peace alternating with periods of low-level violence that
grow worse with each iteration. In typical situations, this process
continues until at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the
survivors of the war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out.
In this case, a new full-scale war would not be anticipated until at
least 2052.
So it remains to be seen how long the new cease-fire will last. Maybe
it will last only a day like the last one. Or, maybe it will last a
couple of years like the cease-fire negotiated in 2016. But you can
be absolutely certain that it will not last.
****
**** Joyous celebrations in Baku, Azerbaijan
****
Al-Jazeera is showing video of the streets of Azerbaijan's capital
city Baku filled with overjoyed people, dancing, singing, and shouting
(without, incidentally, much sign of masks or social distancing).
Joyous, grinning young girls were launghinbly describing how they will
now return to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, where their parents
were displaced in 1994. They chuckled as they said that it won't be
long before all of Nagorno-Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijan, so that
they can all return to all of their former homes.
One 52-year-old Azeri is quoted as saying complained that the
government agreed to the cease-fire. "We were about to gain the whole
of Nagorno-Karabakh back. The agreement is very vague I don’t trust
Armenia and I don’t trust Russia even more.”
****
**** Furious rioting in Yerevan, Armenia
****
The video from Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia was considerably
grimmer. Furious citizens are demanding the resignation of Armenia's
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entire government, saying that
he betrayed the Armenian people, and asking why Pashinyan waited until
now to capitulate, after 1,300 Armenian soldiers have already been
killed in the fighting.
Rioting broke out in Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia, where
crowds stormed and ransacked government buildings.
****
**** Threat of Russia - Turkey clash
****
As "historic" as the cease-fire agreement is, there are a number of
issues remaining.
Russia is claiming to be the kingmaker that brought about the deal,
but Turkey was not part of the deal. Turkey was heavily committed to
backing Azerbaijan in the fighting, and have even provided hundreds of
Syrian jihadists to fight alongside the Azerbaijani forces, according
to a number of reports, paying the jihadists pay ranging from $1,200
to $2,000 per month.
Russia and Turkey are historic enemies that have fought massive wars
against each other in previous centuries, and are already supporting
opposing sides in conflicts in Syria and Libya. Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan would like to restore the former glory of the
ancient Ottoman Empire, and being shut out of the Nagorno-Karabakh
cease-fire deal in favor of Russia is contrary to those glorious
plans.
According to some reports, the Russians did not want to commit Russian
troops to enforce the ceasefire, but felt that they had to because if
the fighting continued, it was likely that Russia and Turkey would
soon be at war. Russia is supposed to be an ally of Armenia, and has
a military base in Armenia, so an increase in fighting could force
Russia to defend Armenia from the Turks.
Russian forces are scheduled to remain for at least five years.
Almost 2,000 servicemen, 90 armured personnel carriers, and 380
vehicles and pieces of other hardware were being deployed. Russian
media said 20 military planes had taken off for the region and had
started arriving in Armenia en route to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia says that there had been no agreement on deploying any Turkish
peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Turkish military will help
staff a joint monitoring center with Russian forces.
****
**** The Khojaly Massacre, February 26, 1992
****
According to Azerbaijan, on February 26, 1992, 613 Azeri civilians
were massacred by Armenian soldiers in the town of Khojaly in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Some 487 people, including 76 children, were
critically injured. According to Azerbaijan, this was genocide.
According to Armenia, Khojaly had been used as an Azeri firebase from
which to use multi-rocket launches on residential areas of
Stepanakert, purposely killing as many Armenian civilians as possible.
Everyone knew that an Armenian military attack on Khojaly was coming,
but according to Armenia, the Azeri military purposely blocked
civilians from leaving Khojaly, so that the attack would result in a
massacre of civilians, which they would call a genocide.
Whichever side is telling the truth, it remains clear that the Azeri
people are demanding revenge for the Khojaly massacre.
****
**** The future of the Nagorno-Karabakh
****
This is a standard generational pattern, the next step in a string of
alternating periods of war and ceasefire. The last ceasefires each
lasted one day, Russia hopes this one will last at least five years.
As is always the case, it will be the people, rather than the
politicians, who will decide how long the ceasefire will last.
The people of Azerbaijan, as far as I can tell, want the fighting to
resume and continue. They want revenge for the Khojaly Massacre, they
want to recapture the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh and drive out all the
Armenians, and those whose parents were displaced in the 1991-94 war
are demanding to return to those homes.
All of these steps are inevitable, if not right away then in
the next few years, and the result will be genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Armenians.
****
**** Ethiopia civil war threatens to destabilize horn of Africa
****
This is a completely separate subject, for those who are interested in
more than the subject of voter fraud in Pennsylvania. I've written
several times in the past about the ethnic situation in Ethiopia, but
it's been peaceful for a couple of years, and now new clashes are
creating a refugee crisis that can threaten the entire horn of Africa.
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who comes from the Oromo tribe,
the largest Ethiopia ethnic group, has ordered hundreds of air strikes
and an army offensive against the Tigray minority in northern
Ethiopia. Already 2,500 Ethiopians have fled into Sudan, and the fear
is that a wider civil war would bring hundreds of thousands of
refugees into Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. Even worse, the
border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea may be renewed The African
Union called for a ceasefire, but we know how those things go.
I've written about the civil war between the Tigrays and the Oromos
several times in the past, and how Abiy Ahmed got a Nobel "Peace"
Price by ending the civil war. But, as in the case of
Nagorno-Karabakh, there is a generational pattern that's always
followed, with alternating periods of peace and conflict, with the
conflict worsening with each iteration. I'm still spending a lot of
time on my Vietnam book, but I'll try to write something soon to bring
the Ethiopian civil war up to day.
Sources:
Related Articles - Nagorno-Karabakh:
Related Articles-Ethiopia:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria,
Shusha, Shushi, Stepanakert,
Nikol Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev, Vagram Pogosian,
Mevlut Cavusoglu, Khojaly Massacre
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
- Nagorno-Karabakh's standard generational pattern
- Joyous celebrations in Baku, Azerbaijan
- Furious rioting in Yerevan, Armenia
- Threat of Russia - Turkey clash
- The Khojaly Massacre, February 26, 1992
- The future of the Nagorno-Karabakh
- Ethiopia civil war threatens to destabilize horn of Africa
****
**** Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
****
Map of Azerbaijan and Armenia, showing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region (BBC)
Armenia has agreed to a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal with Azerbaijan,
mediated by Russia, rather than face a complete military debacle.
Azerbaijani military forces have achieved a string of victories in
capturing cities and villages around Nagorno-Karabakh. On Sunday,
Azerbaijani forces captured Shusha (Shushi), the region's
second-largest town, and were close to attacking the Nagorno-Karabakh
capital city Stepanakert, which is on the main road to Armenia.
Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly
painful both for both me and our people." He added, "The army said
that we had to stop, because there are problems for which there are no
solution, and the army was out of resources."
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said “This (ceasefire) agreement
has historic significance. This agreement constitutes Armenia’s
capitulation. This agreement puts an end to the years-long
occupation."
Vagram Pogosian, a spokesman for the Armenian government in
Nagorno-Karabakh, said "Unfortunately, we are forced to admit that a
series of failures still haunt us, and the city of Shushi is
completely out of our control. The enemy is on the outskirts of
Stepanakert.”
Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, "We will stand
alongside Azerbaijan. This is a great success, a victory for
Azerbaijan. Territories that were under occupation for 30 years are
being taken back."
This is the fourth mediated cease-fire agreement on the last three
months. The previous ones lasted only a day. There are two things
that make this one different. First, there is the lingering threat
the Azerbaijani military forces will continue on to Stepanakert and
take control of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. And second,
Russia is deploying its own military forces to separate the two sides
and prevent a resumption of fighting.
****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh's standard generational pattern
****
This is actually the next step in a standard generational pattern.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an
extremely bloody war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and
defeated the Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in
hundreds of thousands of people displaced or killed.
The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded according to a standard generational pattern, with
periods of peace alternating with periods of low-level violence that
grow worse with each iteration. In typical situations, this process
continues until at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the
survivors of the war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out.
In this case, a new full-scale war would not be anticipated until at
least 2052.
So it remains to be seen how long the new cease-fire will last. Maybe
it will last only a day like the last one. Or, maybe it will last a
couple of years like the cease-fire negotiated in 2016. But you can
be absolutely certain that it will not last.
****
**** Joyous celebrations in Baku, Azerbaijan
****
Al-Jazeera is showing video of the streets of Azerbaijan's capital
city Baku filled with overjoyed people, dancing, singing, and shouting
(without, incidentally, much sign of masks or social distancing).
Joyous, grinning young girls were launghinbly describing how they will
now return to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, where their parents
were displaced in 1994. They chuckled as they said that it won't be
long before all of Nagorno-Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijan, so that
they can all return to all of their former homes.
One 52-year-old Azeri is quoted as saying complained that the
government agreed to the cease-fire. "We were about to gain the whole
of Nagorno-Karabakh back. The agreement is very vague I don’t trust
Armenia and I don’t trust Russia even more.”
****
**** Furious rioting in Yerevan, Armenia
****
The video from Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia was considerably
grimmer. Furious citizens are demanding the resignation of Armenia's
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entire government, saying that
he betrayed the Armenian people, and asking why Pashinyan waited until
now to capitulate, after 1,300 Armenian soldiers have already been
killed in the fighting.
Rioting broke out in Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia, where
crowds stormed and ransacked government buildings.
****
**** Threat of Russia - Turkey clash
****
As "historic" as the cease-fire agreement is, there are a number of
issues remaining.
Russia is claiming to be the kingmaker that brought about the deal,
but Turkey was not part of the deal. Turkey was heavily committed to
backing Azerbaijan in the fighting, and have even provided hundreds of
Syrian jihadists to fight alongside the Azerbaijani forces, according
to a number of reports, paying the jihadists pay ranging from $1,200
to $2,000 per month.
Russia and Turkey are historic enemies that have fought massive wars
against each other in previous centuries, and are already supporting
opposing sides in conflicts in Syria and Libya. Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan would like to restore the former glory of the
ancient Ottoman Empire, and being shut out of the Nagorno-Karabakh
cease-fire deal in favor of Russia is contrary to those glorious
plans.
According to some reports, the Russians did not want to commit Russian
troops to enforce the ceasefire, but felt that they had to because if
the fighting continued, it was likely that Russia and Turkey would
soon be at war. Russia is supposed to be an ally of Armenia, and has
a military base in Armenia, so an increase in fighting could force
Russia to defend Armenia from the Turks.
Russian forces are scheduled to remain for at least five years.
Almost 2,000 servicemen, 90 armured personnel carriers, and 380
vehicles and pieces of other hardware were being deployed. Russian
media said 20 military planes had taken off for the region and had
started arriving in Armenia en route to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia says that there had been no agreement on deploying any Turkish
peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Turkish military will help
staff a joint monitoring center with Russian forces.
****
**** The Khojaly Massacre, February 26, 1992
****
According to Azerbaijan, on February 26, 1992, 613 Azeri civilians
were massacred by Armenian soldiers in the town of Khojaly in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Some 487 people, including 76 children, were
critically injured. According to Azerbaijan, this was genocide.
According to Armenia, Khojaly had been used as an Azeri firebase from
which to use multi-rocket launches on residential areas of
Stepanakert, purposely killing as many Armenian civilians as possible.
Everyone knew that an Armenian military attack on Khojaly was coming,
but according to Armenia, the Azeri military purposely blocked
civilians from leaving Khojaly, so that the attack would result in a
massacre of civilians, which they would call a genocide.
Whichever side is telling the truth, it remains clear that the Azeri
people are demanding revenge for the Khojaly massacre.
****
**** The future of the Nagorno-Karabakh
****
This is a standard generational pattern, the next step in a string of
alternating periods of war and ceasefire. The last ceasefires each
lasted one day, Russia hopes this one will last at least five years.
As is always the case, it will be the people, rather than the
politicians, who will decide how long the ceasefire will last.
The people of Azerbaijan, as far as I can tell, want the fighting to
resume and continue. They want revenge for the Khojaly Massacre, they
want to recapture the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh and drive out all the
Armenians, and those whose parents were displaced in the 1991-94 war
are demanding to return to those homes.
All of these steps are inevitable, if not right away then in
the next few years, and the result will be genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Armenians.
****
**** Ethiopia civil war threatens to destabilize horn of Africa
****
This is a completely separate subject, for those who are interested in
more than the subject of voter fraud in Pennsylvania. I've written
several times in the past about the ethnic situation in Ethiopia, but
it's been peaceful for a couple of years, and now new clashes are
creating a refugee crisis that can threaten the entire horn of Africa.
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who comes from the Oromo tribe,
the largest Ethiopia ethnic group, has ordered hundreds of air strikes
and an army offensive against the Tigray minority in northern
Ethiopia. Already 2,500 Ethiopians have fled into Sudan, and the fear
is that a wider civil war would bring hundreds of thousands of
refugees into Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. Even worse, the
border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea may be renewed The African
Union called for a ceasefire, but we know how those things go.
I've written about the civil war between the Tigrays and the Oromos
several times in the past, and how Abiy Ahmed got a Nobel "Peace"
Price by ending the civil war. But, as in the case of
Nagorno-Karabakh, there is a generational pattern that's always
followed, with alternating periods of peace and conflict, with the
conflict worsening with each iteration. I'm still spending a lot of
time on my Vietnam book, but I'll try to write something soon to bring
the Ethiopian civil war up to day.
Sources:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal (BBC, 9-Nov-2020)
- Latest Cease-Fire In Nagorno-Karabakh Leaves Armenians Feeling Betrayed By Government (NPR, 10-Nov-2020)
- Russian peacekeepers deploy to Nagorno-Karabakh after ceasefire deal (Reuters, 10-Nov-2020)
- Will a Russian-Brokered Deal End the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict? (Foreign Policy, 10-Nov-2020)
- Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to end weeks of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh (ArabNews, AFP, 10-Nov-2020)
- Russian peacekeepers go to Nagorno-Karabakh to bolster truce (AP, 10-Nov-2020)
- Angry Mob Assaults Armenian Lawmaker, Threatens RFE/RL Bureau Following Nagorno-Karabakh Truce (RFERL, 10-Nov-2020)
- Nagorno-Karabakh / Deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh was never discussed (Public Radio Of Armenia, 10-Nov-2020)
- Nagorno-Karabakh leader concedes military defeat: Blames Middle Eastern mercenaries, Covid-19 outbreak, fatigue & Turkish drones (Russia Today, 10-Nov-2020)
- Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to end fight in Nagorno-Karabakh (AP, 10-Nov-2020)
- France's Macron says Syrian jihadists active in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict (Radio France International, 1-Oct-2020)
- Are Syrian Mercenaries Helping Azerbaijan Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh? (RFERL, 15-Oct-2020)
- Horrors of Khojaly massacre still hamper peace in Azeri-Armenian conflict (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Nov-2020)
- Nagorno-Karabakh / The Truth About Khojaly (Massis Post, Armenia, 1-Mar-2020)
- Armenia / Azerbaijan / Syria / Russia / Erdogan's jihadist army (Dogrusu, Turkish language(10/2020):
- Ethiopia's Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan (Reuters, 10-Nov-2020)
Related Articles - Nagorno-Karabakh:
- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan (11-Oct-2020)
- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (28-Sep-2020)
- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
Related Articles-Ethiopia:
- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea (06-Jun-2018)
- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
- Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency (17-Feb-2018)
- Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally (24-Jun-2018)
- Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria,
Shusha, Shushi, Stepanakert,
Nikol Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev, Vagram Pogosian,
Mevlut Cavusoglu, Khojaly Massacre
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
