11-15-2020, 11:41 PM
** 15-Nov-2020 World View: South Korea
I wish I could answer this question for you, but there are too many
possible scenarios.
One scenario is an "accidental invasion." Some kind of unintended
military clash occurs between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels,
escalating into a war. This scenario is possible because the Chinese
Communists are thirsting for war, are nationalistic to the point of
insanity, and make one stupid mistake after another.
Another scenario is the "lightning invasion." In this case, the
Chinese launch a surprise attack and try to capture the island within
a day, hoping that the US won't have time to respond. In this forum,
Navigator has argued that China would never succeed at this, because
the advance preparation would be detected. Nonetheless, the Chinese
Communist hypernationalistic insanity makes it possible.
A variation of this scenario would be a lightning invasion of Taiwan
coordinated with a North Korean invasion of South Korea. The Chinese
Communists, in their hypernationalistic insanity, might see the Korean
situation as a distraction to the US to prevent a reaction to the
Taiwan invasion.
Other variations involve a massive missile attack on American cities
and on American warships in the South China Sea.
However, there is "good news" for South Korea. A variation involving
a North Korean invasion of the South would be a distraction to the US,
but it would also be a distraction for China, as the South would
retaliate on Pyongyang, creating a refugee crisis into northeastern
China. Therefore, the Chinese Communists may go ahead with an attack
on Taiwan, but order its North Korean vassal not to attack the South.
All of this is highly speculative. China has 21 border disputes with
neighboring countries, which shows how insane the Chinese Communists
are, and any one of those could start a war with a totally different
scenario.
This will be World War III, and the only real difference among these
scenarios is the timeline -- the ordering and timing of events.
In response to another comment, the country facing an existential
threat will put aside political differences and everyone will unite
behind the president. There's an issue with Joe Biden, who has been
hiding out in his basement for a year, doesn't seem to know what's
going on, and probably can't lead America through a major
international crisis. Hopefully, Biden will appoint an army general
who can take over as de facto president, and lead the country
through the crisis.
Burner Prime" Wrote:> If China invades Taiwan, very few Americans (but the usual
> warhawks) will push for a call to arms.
John Wrote:> ** 14-Nov-2020 World View: China invades Taiwan
> That's not true. We'll be at war within 24 hours.
Guest Wrote:> What do you think will happen to South Korea in this event?
> Immediate NK invasion?
I wish I could answer this question for you, but there are too many
possible scenarios.
One scenario is an "accidental invasion." Some kind of unintended
military clash occurs between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels,
escalating into a war. This scenario is possible because the Chinese
Communists are thirsting for war, are nationalistic to the point of
insanity, and make one stupid mistake after another.
Another scenario is the "lightning invasion." In this case, the
Chinese launch a surprise attack and try to capture the island within
a day, hoping that the US won't have time to respond. In this forum,
Navigator has argued that China would never succeed at this, because
the advance preparation would be detected. Nonetheless, the Chinese
Communist hypernationalistic insanity makes it possible.
A variation of this scenario would be a lightning invasion of Taiwan
coordinated with a North Korean invasion of South Korea. The Chinese
Communists, in their hypernationalistic insanity, might see the Korean
situation as a distraction to the US to prevent a reaction to the
Taiwan invasion.
Other variations involve a massive missile attack on American cities
and on American warships in the South China Sea.
However, there is "good news" for South Korea. A variation involving
a North Korean invasion of the South would be a distraction to the US,
but it would also be a distraction for China, as the South would
retaliate on Pyongyang, creating a refugee crisis into northeastern
China. Therefore, the Chinese Communists may go ahead with an attack
on Taiwan, but order its North Korean vassal not to attack the South.
All of this is highly speculative. China has 21 border disputes with
neighboring countries, which shows how insane the Chinese Communists
are, and any one of those could start a war with a totally different
scenario.
This will be World War III, and the only real difference among these
scenarios is the timeline -- the ordering and timing of events.
In response to another comment, the country facing an existential
threat will put aside political differences and everyone will unite
behind the president. There's an issue with Joe Biden, who has been
hiding out in his basement for a year, doesn't seem to know what's
going on, and probably can't lead America through a major
international crisis. Hopefully, Biden will appoint an army general
who can take over as de facto president, and lead the country
through the crisis.
