Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-15-2020, 10:28 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: This might have led to a full-scale generational crisis war, but there was a major development: In 1977, the USSR allied with the Ethiopian government, took control of Eritrea's Red Sea ports, and provided Ethiopia's government with huge supplies of arms, enough to suppress the EPLF guerrillas.

The guerrilla war fought by Marxist rebels against the well-armed Ethiopian government climaxed in May 1991 with the collapse of Ethiopia's government, coincident with the collapse of the USSR.  Eritrea finally declared  independence.  By that time, there were 500,000 refugees that had fled to refugee camps in Sudan, and they had
to be resettled in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The Marxists were fighting the Soviets?  Nice irony.

This is an analysis of part of the world which deals mostly with tribal thinking, where nukes and proxy wars have not yet reshaped things.  Still, you have groups like ISIS and the old Soviet Union which pull at the no proxy war environment.  Asia?  Things get more complicated.  Ignoring the leader's and elites interests makes sticking with an age old perspective difficult.

The bottom line is tribal thinking has people always hating their neighbors and initiating a crisis war whenever the last one has faded from living memory. This was pretty accurate in the old days, when tribal thinking was cost effective if you had the military advantage. Tribal thinking was cost effective then. After machine guns, nukes and proxy wars violence is not cost effective. It just guarantees poverty and strife with a potential for total destruction. It is not in the interests of the leaders and elites.

Thus, constant predictions of violence when there is a dominance of tribal thinking, no crisis wars in areas where the WIERD have come to dominate. No apologies for hoping that tribal thinking will continue to fade.