11-24-2020, 07:14 AM
** 24-Nov-2020 World View: China after the war
It's interesting that Kissinger is still living in the 1970s, at the
time of ping-pong diplomacy. At that time, China was flat on its back
from Mao's disastrous policies -- the Great Leap Forward and the
Cultural Revolution. These are some of the stupidest policies of any
country in the history of the world, and they so completely devastated
China that China's economy still hasn't recovered. But in the 1970s,
China was so desperate that at least it was possible to talk to them
sensibly. That hasn't been true for a long time now, with China's
contempt for international law and the rest of the world, whom they
consider to be barbarians. Kissinger doesn't realize how things have
changed since the Tiananmen Square bloodbath, and the question is
whether Biden's relationship with China is so completely compromised
that he'll adopt the Kissinger position. All the signs are that it is
compromised, but we'll see.
I believe that it was Toynbee a century ago who said that China
would be the dominant power in the 21st century. He made that
prediction based on the size and growth of China's population,
which seemed irrestible. I used to semi-believe that myself,
but as I've been writing about China for 20 years, I've gradually
believed it less and less, and after writing my book on China, I
now consider it to be impossible.
I've come to appreciate how thoroughly immersed the Chinese are in
Confucianism. Most Americans know Confucianism through Chinese
fortune cookies, and sayings like, "Confucius say: Man with one
chopstick go hungry." or "Confucius say: Man should not sleep with
woman with more troubles than he have." These fortune cookie
sayings give the impression that Confucianism is pleasant
and benign.
But I've come to understand how deadly and destructive Confucianism
has been for China. Domestically, it means that any leader is
automatically a dictator who cannot be contradicted, unless he makes a
mistake so egregious that he loses the "Mandate from Heaven," and then
a rebellion must ensue. Internationally, it means, as I said above,
contempt for international law and the view of the rest of the world
as barbarians whose only purpose is to serve the Chinese, in the same
way that donkeys serve farmers. The West tolerated this view for
decades, giving China the opportunity to take advantage of
organizations like the UN, the WTO and WHO, but resulting in
disastrous decisions like the annexation of the South China Sea, or
the enslavement of millions of Uighurs in concentration camps. Trump
has reversed some of China's most disastrous successes, but now we
have to watch and see whether Biden's relationship with China is so
thoroughly compromised that China will resume its contemptuous
treatment of America and the west with full force.
The point is that Confucianism is so disastrous for China that China
can't even govern itself. Consider China's recent history. For four
of the last eight centuries, China was actually ruled by other people
-- the Mongols and the Manchus. And as we've seen in the last 70
years, when the Chinese do control their own government, they become
extremely self-destructive. So I think that the CCP thugs do have an
erotic fantasy of China taking over the world role that America
currently holds, but I don't see any possibility of that, given the
destructive and self-destructive nature of Confucianism. You can't
lead a world of people that you think are donkeys.
Guest Wrote:> Navigator mentioned the world will end up being ruled by dictators
> in a past post. What countries does he see becoming the new
> superpowers (or regional powers)?
Navigator Wrote:> My belief is that after a major war, and after the collapse of the
> welfare states, the world is going to look something like a map of
> Germany after the 30 Years War (roughly mid 1600s).
> Who becomes a major power after that is anyone's guess, but many
> will try to become one. Leaders will arise in many areas. If
> they can unify their "tribe" or ethnicity, instill a warrior ethos
> in their people, and have access to enough resources, then they
> can embark on conquests. Their aim will be to end up in a
> position similar to Charlemange (or better).
Guest Wrote:> Kissinger is back at it; leading America down the road to hell.
> "I would think we need first of all a dialogue with the Chinese
> leadership in which we are defining what we're attempting to
> prevent and in which the two leaders agree that whatever other
> conflicts they have they will not resort to military conflict,"
> Henry Kissinger told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John
> Micklethwait on November 16 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum.
> "Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world
> will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I."
> https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16785...singer-war
Guest Wrote:> "Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the
> audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe
> allegiance to Beijing."
> An interesting quote from the above article by Gordon Chang. This
> is what John has been talking about for years.
> I refuse to kowtow to anyone.
It's interesting that Kissinger is still living in the 1970s, at the
time of ping-pong diplomacy. At that time, China was flat on its back
from Mao's disastrous policies -- the Great Leap Forward and the
Cultural Revolution. These are some of the stupidest policies of any
country in the history of the world, and they so completely devastated
China that China's economy still hasn't recovered. But in the 1970s,
China was so desperate that at least it was possible to talk to them
sensibly. That hasn't been true for a long time now, with China's
contempt for international law and the rest of the world, whom they
consider to be barbarians. Kissinger doesn't realize how things have
changed since the Tiananmen Square bloodbath, and the question is
whether Biden's relationship with China is so completely compromised
that he'll adopt the Kissinger position. All the signs are that it is
compromised, but we'll see.
I believe that it was Toynbee a century ago who said that China
would be the dominant power in the 21st century. He made that
prediction based on the size and growth of China's population,
which seemed irrestible. I used to semi-believe that myself,
but as I've been writing about China for 20 years, I've gradually
believed it less and less, and after writing my book on China, I
now consider it to be impossible.
I've come to appreciate how thoroughly immersed the Chinese are in
Confucianism. Most Americans know Confucianism through Chinese
fortune cookies, and sayings like, "Confucius say: Man with one
chopstick go hungry." or "Confucius say: Man should not sleep with
woman with more troubles than he have." These fortune cookie
sayings give the impression that Confucianism is pleasant
and benign.
But I've come to understand how deadly and destructive Confucianism
has been for China. Domestically, it means that any leader is
automatically a dictator who cannot be contradicted, unless he makes a
mistake so egregious that he loses the "Mandate from Heaven," and then
a rebellion must ensue. Internationally, it means, as I said above,
contempt for international law and the view of the rest of the world
as barbarians whose only purpose is to serve the Chinese, in the same
way that donkeys serve farmers. The West tolerated this view for
decades, giving China the opportunity to take advantage of
organizations like the UN, the WTO and WHO, but resulting in
disastrous decisions like the annexation of the South China Sea, or
the enslavement of millions of Uighurs in concentration camps. Trump
has reversed some of China's most disastrous successes, but now we
have to watch and see whether Biden's relationship with China is so
thoroughly compromised that China will resume its contemptuous
treatment of America and the west with full force.
The point is that Confucianism is so disastrous for China that China
can't even govern itself. Consider China's recent history. For four
of the last eight centuries, China was actually ruled by other people
-- the Mongols and the Manchus. And as we've seen in the last 70
years, when the Chinese do control their own government, they become
extremely self-destructive. So I think that the CCP thugs do have an
erotic fantasy of China taking over the world role that America
currently holds, but I don't see any possibility of that, given the
destructive and self-destructive nature of Confucianism. You can't
lead a world of people that you think are donkeys.
