07-28-2016, 09:57 PM
*** 29-Jul-16 World View -- Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
****
![[Image: g160728b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160728b.jpg)
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the smiling terrorist leader of Jabhat al-Nusra
Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), al-Qaeda's branch in Syria,
announced on Thursday that it is no longer affiliated with al-Qaeda,
and was no longer under the command of al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri.
The group's leader, Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, announced that the group
was changing its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest
of Syria):
[indent]<QUOTE>"We have stopped operating under the name of Nusra
Front and formed a new body ... This new formation has no ties
with any foreign party.
[The change is intended] to remove the excuse used by the
international community – spearheaded by America and Russia – to
bombard and displace Muslims in the Levant: that they are
targeting the Nusra Front, which is associated with
al-Qaida.
This new organization aims ... to serve the Muslims, attend to
their daily needs and ease the hardships in every possible way,
[and to] unite the people of [Syria and] ensure security,
stability, and a dignified life for the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, al-Jolani said he remained committed to implementing Islamic
law, and gave no indication that it was no longer a terrorist group.
Indeed, the U.S. immediately said that it would still consider the
group, under its new name, to be a terrorist group, with the
implication that targets associated with the group would still be
bombed.
The split with al-Qaeda was apparently friendly, suggesting that the
split may be part of a larger plan. In an audio message, al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri said:
[indent]<QUOTE>"You can sacrifice without hesitation these
organizational and party ties if they conflict with your unity and
working as one body.
"The brotherhood of Islam among us is stronger than any
organizational affiliation ... Your unity and unification is more
important to us than any organizational link."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Guardian (London)
****
**** Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
****
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, was defeated in the aftermath of the Iraq war, first by an
American drone strike that killed al-Zarqawi, and later by president
George Bush's "surge" strategy that turned Iraqi Sunnis against AQI.
(See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)
The genocidal campaign of extermination against Syrian Sunnis by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from all over the world for the fight against al-Assad,
leading to the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, and then its spectacular success in taking
control of large regions of both Syria and Iraq. But now, president
Barack Obama's bombing coalition strategy, in cooperation with Kurdish
and Shia Muslim fighters, has drastically reduced the regions under
ISIS control, and raised hope that ISIS is being defeated.
This is the context in which the al-Nusra - al-Qaeda split must be
viewed. Both AQI and ISIS imposed harsh Sharia law on the people that
they governed, and tortured, killed or raped anyone who didn't comply.
It should not be a surprise to anyone that no government of that sort
is going to be popular, and indeed both AQI and ISIS lost control when
their own constituents turned against them. In the end, even
dictators and terrorists must eventually have do what the people want.
Reports all along have indicated that al-Nusra was torn between
following a harsh Sharia model versus following a more moderate model
of governing. There was a big group of al-Nusra officials who wanted
to follow the harsh Sharia model, but there have also been a number of
"moderate" anti-Assad, anti-ISIS groups in Syria who have strongly
urged a split. The strongest opponent of a link to al-Qaeda was a key
ally, Ahrar al-Sham, and maintaining a good relation with this and
other allies was essential for the success of al-Nusra.
Thus, the break with al-Qaeda can be thought of in either of two ways.
First, it's a sign that al-Nusra has abandoned the harsh Sharia model
of governing, and so will be able to ally and possibly merge with
other anti-Assad opposition groups, and become the leader of all of
these groups, replacing ISIS as the largest and most powerful Salafist
anti-Assad opposition group in Syria.
The other way to look at it is that it's all a façade, that the
amicable split between al-Nusra and al-Qaeda had the purpose of
putting a more friendly face on al-Nusra, and that al-Nusra is still
allied with al-Qaeda, but not publicly.
It's possible that both of these are true, and that the new Jabhat
Fateh al-Sham will have the best of two worlds -- tacit support from
al-Qaeda, but with a more moderate face to the outside world and to
the other anti-Assad and anti-ISIS factions.
There's another advantage, according to Brookings analyst Charles
Lister:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Perhaps more significantly, this latest development
has also made it entirely feasible that regional states, notably
Qatar and Turkey, could now attempt to provide direct material
support to the group. Turkey in particular is likely to use the
argument that, having announced a severing of its ties to
al-Qaeda, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham is as legitimate a partner as
Washington’s preferred [anti-ISIS] ally, the Kurdish
YPG."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is a good time to recall the Generational Dynamics prediction for
where things are going and where the trend lines are, since there
seems to be a new event every week or two that moves us along that
trend line. As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India,
Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side.
( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
Once again, we have a major new event that moves us along this trend
line. Over the past few years, we've seen events that move the US
closer to Iran and Russia, and we've seen the increasing alienation of
relations between the US and countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Even in the last few days, we see a possible major split between the
US and Turkey, with Turkey claiming that exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen
worked with the CIA to launch the recent attempted coup d'état,
and claiming further that any further delay in extraditing Gulen to Turkey will be proof of American complicity.
Despite reports that ISIS was being funded by Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
ISIS has always been and will be too dangerous to the governments of
both those countries. But the new Jabhat Fateh al-Sham could very
well turn out to be the key that unites a wider group of Sunni Arabs
against al-Assad, Iran, Russia, and eventually against the United
States, moving the Mideast even further along the trend line.
CS Monitor and Foreign Policy and Press TV (Tehran)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Ahrar al-Sham, Brookings Institution, Charles Lister,
Qatar, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen, Saudi Arabia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
- Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
****
**** Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
****
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the smiling terrorist leader of Jabhat al-Nusra
Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), al-Qaeda's branch in Syria,
announced on Thursday that it is no longer affiliated with al-Qaeda,
and was no longer under the command of al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri.
The group's leader, Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, announced that the group
was changing its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest
of Syria):
[indent]<QUOTE>"We have stopped operating under the name of Nusra
Front and formed a new body ... This new formation has no ties
with any foreign party.
[The change is intended] to remove the excuse used by the
international community – spearheaded by America and Russia – to
bombard and displace Muslims in the Levant: that they are
targeting the Nusra Front, which is associated with
al-Qaida.
This new organization aims ... to serve the Muslims, attend to
their daily needs and ease the hardships in every possible way,
[and to] unite the people of [Syria and] ensure security,
stability, and a dignified life for the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, al-Jolani said he remained committed to implementing Islamic
law, and gave no indication that it was no longer a terrorist group.
Indeed, the U.S. immediately said that it would still consider the
group, under its new name, to be a terrorist group, with the
implication that targets associated with the group would still be
bombed.
The split with al-Qaeda was apparently friendly, suggesting that the
split may be part of a larger plan. In an audio message, al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri said:
[indent]<QUOTE>"You can sacrifice without hesitation these
organizational and party ties if they conflict with your unity and
working as one body.
"The brotherhood of Islam among us is stronger than any
organizational affiliation ... Your unity and unification is more
important to us than any organizational link."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Guardian (London)
****
**** Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
****
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, was defeated in the aftermath of the Iraq war, first by an
American drone strike that killed al-Zarqawi, and later by president
George Bush's "surge" strategy that turned Iraqi Sunnis against AQI.
(See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)
The genocidal campaign of extermination against Syrian Sunnis by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from all over the world for the fight against al-Assad,
leading to the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, and then its spectacular success in taking
control of large regions of both Syria and Iraq. But now, president
Barack Obama's bombing coalition strategy, in cooperation with Kurdish
and Shia Muslim fighters, has drastically reduced the regions under
ISIS control, and raised hope that ISIS is being defeated.
This is the context in which the al-Nusra - al-Qaeda split must be
viewed. Both AQI and ISIS imposed harsh Sharia law on the people that
they governed, and tortured, killed or raped anyone who didn't comply.
It should not be a surprise to anyone that no government of that sort
is going to be popular, and indeed both AQI and ISIS lost control when
their own constituents turned against them. In the end, even
dictators and terrorists must eventually have do what the people want.
Reports all along have indicated that al-Nusra was torn between
following a harsh Sharia model versus following a more moderate model
of governing. There was a big group of al-Nusra officials who wanted
to follow the harsh Sharia model, but there have also been a number of
"moderate" anti-Assad, anti-ISIS groups in Syria who have strongly
urged a split. The strongest opponent of a link to al-Qaeda was a key
ally, Ahrar al-Sham, and maintaining a good relation with this and
other allies was essential for the success of al-Nusra.
Thus, the break with al-Qaeda can be thought of in either of two ways.
First, it's a sign that al-Nusra has abandoned the harsh Sharia model
of governing, and so will be able to ally and possibly merge with
other anti-Assad opposition groups, and become the leader of all of
these groups, replacing ISIS as the largest and most powerful Salafist
anti-Assad opposition group in Syria.
The other way to look at it is that it's all a façade, that the
amicable split between al-Nusra and al-Qaeda had the purpose of
putting a more friendly face on al-Nusra, and that al-Nusra is still
allied with al-Qaeda, but not publicly.
It's possible that both of these are true, and that the new Jabhat
Fateh al-Sham will have the best of two worlds -- tacit support from
al-Qaeda, but with a more moderate face to the outside world and to
the other anti-Assad and anti-ISIS factions.
There's another advantage, according to Brookings analyst Charles
Lister:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Perhaps more significantly, this latest development
has also made it entirely feasible that regional states, notably
Qatar and Turkey, could now attempt to provide direct material
support to the group. Turkey in particular is likely to use the
argument that, having announced a severing of its ties to
al-Qaeda, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham is as legitimate a partner as
Washington’s preferred [anti-ISIS] ally, the Kurdish
YPG."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is a good time to recall the Generational Dynamics prediction for
where things are going and where the trend lines are, since there
seems to be a new event every week or two that moves us along that
trend line. As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India,
Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side.
( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
Once again, we have a major new event that moves us along this trend
line. Over the past few years, we've seen events that move the US
closer to Iran and Russia, and we've seen the increasing alienation of
relations between the US and countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Even in the last few days, we see a possible major split between the
US and Turkey, with Turkey claiming that exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen
worked with the CIA to launch the recent attempted coup d'état,
and claiming further that any further delay in extraditing Gulen to Turkey will be proof of American complicity.
Despite reports that ISIS was being funded by Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
ISIS has always been and will be too dangerous to the governments of
both those countries. But the new Jabhat Fateh al-Sham could very
well turn out to be the key that unites a wider group of Sunni Arabs
against al-Assad, Iran, Russia, and eventually against the United
States, moving the Mideast even further along the trend line.
CS Monitor and Foreign Policy and Press TV (Tehran)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Ahrar al-Sham, Brookings Institution, Charles Lister,
Qatar, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen, Saudi Arabia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
