11-28-2020, 08:27 AM
** 28-Nov-2020 World View: Israel and Iran
The basics haven't changed since I began writing about them almost 20
years ago: There will be a war between Jews and Palestinians,
refighting the 1948-49 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
partitioning of Palestine, creating the state of Israel. However, the
Arab world is far from monolithic, as illustrated by the Yemen war,
the Syria war, and the four-year-old Saudi blockade of Qatar. Turkey
will try again to revive the Ottoman empire, and the ancient war
between Sunnis and Shias will be fought again.
There are some political changes in the last 20 years that are worthy
of note.
Iran is basically a pro-Western country that was split into two
separate countries by the 1979 civil war (Great Islamic Revolution).
The war survivors are the increasingly ancient geezers who form the
hardline government of Iran. They are dying off, and are being
replaced by younger generations that are pro-American, pro-Western,
and have no desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. They are deeply
angered by the corruption, greed, brutality and incompetence of the
hardliners, as the general population suffers. The fact that a top
scientist was assassinated yesterday is just seen as more proof of the
government's corruption and incompetence. It is inevitable that there
will at some point be a "regime change," an Awakening climax where the
younger generations take control. Iran will still be at war with the
Saudis, and possibly aligned with Qatar and Turkey (as far as I can
tell).
As for Israel, the most surprising political change occurred 15 years
ago when Israel completely reversed its foreign policy:
** 6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200206
In the new "pragmatic" foreign policy, adopted around 2004, Israel no
longer considers itself to be a Mideast country, so much as a European
country. It no longer pretends to try to integrate itself into the
Mideast. Instead, the Arabs and Israelis continue to hate each other,
but Israel would use money and trade incentives to "buy" peace with
its Arab neighbors. The recent Trump-mediated peace agreements with
UAE, Bahrain and Sudan appear to be the implementation of this
pragmatic strategy.
Still, there are over 300 million Arabs living in the Mideast, and
Israel's population is around 9 million. Israel has existed for only
74 years, making it a tiny blip in Mideast history. It's likely that
some kind of Jewish community will survive the next war, but there is
absolutely no guarantee that Israel will survive the next war.
The following is a brief summary that I've used many times during the
last 15 years: Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Japan, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new
war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. Although the exact scenario can't be predicted, the war
between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting
Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups
against each other.
Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, where do you see Israel as a player or agitator in the next
> crisis war? You seem to indicate that they are a side player in
> your former analyses, since China is your public enemy #1 (which I
> agree with).
> What is your take on Iran (since you said they'd join the allied
> powers) moving ahead? Do you think Israel likely was the genesis
> of the assassination?
The basics haven't changed since I began writing about them almost 20
years ago: There will be a war between Jews and Palestinians,
refighting the 1948-49 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
partitioning of Palestine, creating the state of Israel. However, the
Arab world is far from monolithic, as illustrated by the Yemen war,
the Syria war, and the four-year-old Saudi blockade of Qatar. Turkey
will try again to revive the Ottoman empire, and the ancient war
between Sunnis and Shias will be fought again.
There are some political changes in the last 20 years that are worthy
of note.
Iran is basically a pro-Western country that was split into two
separate countries by the 1979 civil war (Great Islamic Revolution).
The war survivors are the increasingly ancient geezers who form the
hardline government of Iran. They are dying off, and are being
replaced by younger generations that are pro-American, pro-Western,
and have no desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. They are deeply
angered by the corruption, greed, brutality and incompetence of the
hardliners, as the general population suffers. The fact that a top
scientist was assassinated yesterday is just seen as more proof of the
government's corruption and incompetence. It is inevitable that there
will at some point be a "regime change," an Awakening climax where the
younger generations take control. Iran will still be at war with the
Saudis, and possibly aligned with Qatar and Turkey (as far as I can
tell).
As for Israel, the most surprising political change occurred 15 years
ago when Israel completely reversed its foreign policy:
** 6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200206
In the new "pragmatic" foreign policy, adopted around 2004, Israel no
longer considers itself to be a Mideast country, so much as a European
country. It no longer pretends to try to integrate itself into the
Mideast. Instead, the Arabs and Israelis continue to hate each other,
but Israel would use money and trade incentives to "buy" peace with
its Arab neighbors. The recent Trump-mediated peace agreements with
UAE, Bahrain and Sudan appear to be the implementation of this
pragmatic strategy.
Still, there are over 300 million Arabs living in the Mideast, and
Israel's population is around 9 million. Israel has existed for only
74 years, making it a tiny blip in Mideast history. It's likely that
some kind of Jewish community will survive the next war, but there is
absolutely no guarantee that Israel will survive the next war.
The following is a brief summary that I've used many times during the
last 15 years: Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Japan, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new
war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. Although the exact scenario can't be predicted, the war
between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting
Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups
against each other.
