12-17-2020, 02:02 AM
** 16-Dec-2020 World View: We're all going to die anyway
You raise important questions that I've always had to deal with. All
I can do is tell how I've handled them.
"What do these predictions mean if we are dead in the long run?"
I've told many people just to ignore these predictions. Unless you're
psychopathically obsessed, like me, or unless you have specific plans,
like building an underground bunker to live in, then you might as well
just go on living your life and enjoying it, and just let people like
me worry about how it's going to end. If there's a war, then both of
us will probably die at the same time, but you'll have lived a happy,
optimistic life, and I'll have lived a sad, depressive life. We'll
both be just as dead, but you'll be better off, at least in the Karmic
sense, because you'll have been happier.
Another way of looking at it is that I can tell you that the camel's
back is going to break at some point, but I can't tell you which straw
will break the camel's back. But if you know that the camel's back
is going to break at some point, then you can take action, such
as getting another camel.
But I don't think it's right to say that just because we can't
predict a specific time for something that it might not occur for
centuries. As I said, there have been multiple massive wars in
the last century and in every century, so you can expect a world
war "soon," whatever that means, but certainly a lot sooner than
the next century.
What Generational Dynamics does is to at least provide a timeline
associated with dystopic predictions, via generational cycles (which
are fairly fixed). So we can look at the dates of the last few major
Western financial crises (1637, 1720, 1789, 1857, 1929), and you can
make probabilistic estimates of when the next crisis can occur. You
can start with generational trends to get an estimated date range, and
then you can can look at the list of previous crises and try to figure
out what they had in common that would predict another crisis, in
order to narrow the date range. That's what I've tried to do, without
attempting to set a specific date. So I can refer to exponential
growing interlocking global debt, or I can refer to the CCP's
increasing belligerence and delusional insanity, and I can quote the
saying, "If something can't go on forever, then it won't." And I can
talk about how "La Belle Époque" ended with WW I, or I can talk about
how the Roaring Twenties ended with the stock market crash, and that
can provide clues about when the crisis will occur, but no definite
time. As I said, I can tell you that the camel's back is going to
break at some point, and I can give you a probabilistic estimate of
when it will happen, but I can't tell you for sure which straw will
break the camel's back.
Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Regarding John's, it is an interesting post. I just wanted to say
> that I didn't predict anything (I actually believe a crisis of
> some sort financially is nearly guaranteed and with potential for
> war). But the larger point is, what do these predictions mean if
> we are dead in the long run, anyway? Or we just cycle to another
> bad run for our grandkids? Especially if these are supposed to be
> so dire, as many on here "predict."
> This is why in particular timing matter for predictions. Severity
> does too. Everyone "knows" financial issues will come and that
> wars will come. If you can't even name a time period, though, it
> does little. I think only a small minority of people believe
> foolishly that wars won't happen again or economic crashes won't,
> to some degree. Yes, those are religious thinkers. Shit, most
> religious thinkers these days are the lefty progressives with
> their climate change as eschatology and "progress" with
> scientism. Basically, the underpinnings of murderous ideologies
> repackaged as communism 2.0
You raise important questions that I've always had to deal with. All
I can do is tell how I've handled them.
"What do these predictions mean if we are dead in the long run?"
I've told many people just to ignore these predictions. Unless you're
psychopathically obsessed, like me, or unless you have specific plans,
like building an underground bunker to live in, then you might as well
just go on living your life and enjoying it, and just let people like
me worry about how it's going to end. If there's a war, then both of
us will probably die at the same time, but you'll have lived a happy,
optimistic life, and I'll have lived a sad, depressive life. We'll
both be just as dead, but you'll be better off, at least in the Karmic
sense, because you'll have been happier.
Another way of looking at it is that I can tell you that the camel's
back is going to break at some point, but I can't tell you which straw
will break the camel's back. But if you know that the camel's back
is going to break at some point, then you can take action, such
as getting another camel.
But I don't think it's right to say that just because we can't
predict a specific time for something that it might not occur for
centuries. As I said, there have been multiple massive wars in
the last century and in every century, so you can expect a world
war "soon," whatever that means, but certainly a lot sooner than
the next century.
What Generational Dynamics does is to at least provide a timeline
associated with dystopic predictions, via generational cycles (which
are fairly fixed). So we can look at the dates of the last few major
Western financial crises (1637, 1720, 1789, 1857, 1929), and you can
make probabilistic estimates of when the next crisis can occur. You
can start with generational trends to get an estimated date range, and
then you can can look at the list of previous crises and try to figure
out what they had in common that would predict another crisis, in
order to narrow the date range. That's what I've tried to do, without
attempting to set a specific date. So I can refer to exponential
growing interlocking global debt, or I can refer to the CCP's
increasing belligerence and delusional insanity, and I can quote the
saying, "If something can't go on forever, then it won't." And I can
talk about how "La Belle Époque" ended with WW I, or I can talk about
how the Roaring Twenties ended with the stock market crash, and that
can provide clues about when the crisis will occur, but no definite
time. As I said, I can tell you that the camel's back is going to
break at some point, and I can give you a probabilistic estimate of
when it will happen, but I can't tell you for sure which straw will
break the camel's back.
