08-12-2016, 09:19 PM
*** 13-Aug-16 World View -- Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
****
![[Image: g160812b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160812b.jpg)
A supporter of former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra holds a rose as she arrives at a polling station during the constitutional referendum in Bangkok. (Getty)
Thailand is on high alert following a total of 13 bombing incidents
that killed four people and injured 35 others in five southern
provinces between Wednesday and Friday morning. The bombings occurred
at beach resorts in southern Thailand. Four people were killed and 35
others, including foreign tourists, were injured.
The characteristics of the bombings were significant different from
those usually perpetrated by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Instead of being suicide bombings, they were improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) triggered remotely by a mobile phone signal. Some
analysts are saying that they were low-explosive devices detonated in
times and places so that they would cause the enormous casualties that
typical ISIS bombings do.
Thus, it's believed that the bombings were perpetrated by a domestic
group with the objective of damaging Thailand's tourist industry,
which accounts for about 10% of the country's GDP. Bangkok Post and CNN
****
**** Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
****
![[Image: g160812c.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160812c.jpg)
Map of southern Thailand showing sites of the bombings (CNN)
There are three major demographic groups in Thailand, and any one of
the three could be responsible for the bombings.
The two we've been writing about most in the last few years are
competing for political power.
The "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite
minority live mostly in central Thailand around Bangkok. They're a
"market-dominant minority," meaning that even though they're a
minority, they control most of the money and businesses in the
country, especially in wealthy Bangkok.
The "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai live in rural areas in northern
and northeastern Thailand. Many are farmers, but they also do most of
the menial labor that the elites don't want to do, while they vastly
outnumber the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese elite. The Thai-Thai are
represented by the Pheu Thai political party, which has won the last
five elections because of their majority. The yellow shirts used a
variety of techniques, from violent protests to army coups, to
overturn these elections. The Thai-Thai hero Thaksin Shinawatra was
prime minister until 2006, when an army coup forced him out of office,
and he now lives in exile in Dubai. His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra,
then took his place and became prime minister in 2011, until the
Constitutional Court forced her to step down by finding her guilty of
abusing her power.
Incidentally, my favorite story in this saga occurred in December
2008. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.) A Thaksin
ally, Samak Sundaravej, had been elected prime minister. After
violent protests by the yellow shirts, he was forced to step down,
because a court removed him from office because he had had a cooking
show on tv, and that was somehow considered a conflict of interest.
You just can't make this stuff up.
Thailand's army seized power in May 2014,
presumably in a victory for the yellow shirts, to prevent
another Thai-Thai political victory. Then, just last week, a
referendum in Thailand approved a new constitution put forth by the
military, in a campaign in which it was against the law to campaign
against the referendum, and one could be jailed for doing so. So, not
surprisingly, the referendum passed. According to analysts, the new
constitution is designed to keep the Thai-Thai political party from
winning the next election, so that the elites will remain in power.
So a group of red shirt or yellow shirt activists could be the
perpetrators of the bombings of the last three days. Both groups have
expressed opposition to the constitution that was just approved, and
both groups have used protests to shut down Bangkok's business and
retail district, in order to damage the Thai economy.
The third possible perpetrators are the separatist Malay insurgents,
living in southern Thailand, in the geographic region where the
bombings actually took place. Thailand is primarily Buddhist, but the
southern portion of the country, bordering Malaysia, is Muslim. An Islamist insurgency began in the south in 2004,
and repeated terrorist attacks have killed thousands.
According to one analyst, one of the towns chosen for the bombings Hua
Hin may have been chosen because there's a large community of retirees
from Europe living there, giving the bombings a maximum international
significance. Hua Hin is also the Thai king's favorite residence
outside of Bangkok.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was the 1970s "killing fields"
war of Cambodia, the country next door, putting both countries into a
generational Awakening-Unraveling era. All three of these groups --
the Buddhist Thai-Chinese and Thai-Thai, and the Muslim Malays -- are
displaying typical behaviors for these eras, including peaceful
protests that turn violent. The army is also using typical behaviors
that we've seen in other countries, including Bangladesh, Burundi,
Syria, Zimbabwe, and others, by using both political means and
violence. The pattern will continue with increasing protests, riots
and violence by protest groups, with the army will respond with
increasing political repression and violence, with a continuing cycle
of violence that can last for decades before another ethnic war breaks
out. Chatham House and BBC
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra,
yellow shirt, Thai-Chinese, red shirt, Thai-Thai, Pheu Thai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
al-Qaeda, Samak Sundaravej, Hua Hin, Cambodia, killing fields
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
- Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
****
**** Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
****
A supporter of former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra holds a rose as she arrives at a polling station during the constitutional referendum in Bangkok. (Getty)
Thailand is on high alert following a total of 13 bombing incidents
that killed four people and injured 35 others in five southern
provinces between Wednesday and Friday morning. The bombings occurred
at beach resorts in southern Thailand. Four people were killed and 35
others, including foreign tourists, were injured.
The characteristics of the bombings were significant different from
those usually perpetrated by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Instead of being suicide bombings, they were improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) triggered remotely by a mobile phone signal. Some
analysts are saying that they were low-explosive devices detonated in
times and places so that they would cause the enormous casualties that
typical ISIS bombings do.
Thus, it's believed that the bombings were perpetrated by a domestic
group with the objective of damaging Thailand's tourist industry,
which accounts for about 10% of the country's GDP. Bangkok Post and CNN
****
**** Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
****
Map of southern Thailand showing sites of the bombings (CNN)
There are three major demographic groups in Thailand, and any one of
the three could be responsible for the bombings.
The two we've been writing about most in the last few years are
competing for political power.
The "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite
minority live mostly in central Thailand around Bangkok. They're a
"market-dominant minority," meaning that even though they're a
minority, they control most of the money and businesses in the
country, especially in wealthy Bangkok.
The "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai live in rural areas in northern
and northeastern Thailand. Many are farmers, but they also do most of
the menial labor that the elites don't want to do, while they vastly
outnumber the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese elite. The Thai-Thai are
represented by the Pheu Thai political party, which has won the last
five elections because of their majority. The yellow shirts used a
variety of techniques, from violent protests to army coups, to
overturn these elections. The Thai-Thai hero Thaksin Shinawatra was
prime minister until 2006, when an army coup forced him out of office,
and he now lives in exile in Dubai. His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra,
then took his place and became prime minister in 2011, until the
Constitutional Court forced her to step down by finding her guilty of
abusing her power.
Incidentally, my favorite story in this saga occurred in December
2008. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.) A Thaksin
ally, Samak Sundaravej, had been elected prime minister. After
violent protests by the yellow shirts, he was forced to step down,
because a court removed him from office because he had had a cooking
show on tv, and that was somehow considered a conflict of interest.
You just can't make this stuff up.
Thailand's army seized power in May 2014,
presumably in a victory for the yellow shirts, to prevent
another Thai-Thai political victory. Then, just last week, a
referendum in Thailand approved a new constitution put forth by the
military, in a campaign in which it was against the law to campaign
against the referendum, and one could be jailed for doing so. So, not
surprisingly, the referendum passed. According to analysts, the new
constitution is designed to keep the Thai-Thai political party from
winning the next election, so that the elites will remain in power.
So a group of red shirt or yellow shirt activists could be the
perpetrators of the bombings of the last three days. Both groups have
expressed opposition to the constitution that was just approved, and
both groups have used protests to shut down Bangkok's business and
retail district, in order to damage the Thai economy.
The third possible perpetrators are the separatist Malay insurgents,
living in southern Thailand, in the geographic region where the
bombings actually took place. Thailand is primarily Buddhist, but the
southern portion of the country, bordering Malaysia, is Muslim. An Islamist insurgency began in the south in 2004,
and repeated terrorist attacks have killed thousands.
According to one analyst, one of the towns chosen for the bombings Hua
Hin may have been chosen because there's a large community of retirees
from Europe living there, giving the bombings a maximum international
significance. Hua Hin is also the Thai king's favorite residence
outside of Bangkok.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was the 1970s "killing fields"
war of Cambodia, the country next door, putting both countries into a
generational Awakening-Unraveling era. All three of these groups --
the Buddhist Thai-Chinese and Thai-Thai, and the Muslim Malays -- are
displaying typical behaviors for these eras, including peaceful
protests that turn violent. The army is also using typical behaviors
that we've seen in other countries, including Bangladesh, Burundi,
Syria, Zimbabwe, and others, by using both political means and
violence. The pattern will continue with increasing protests, riots
and violence by protest groups, with the army will respond with
increasing political repression and violence, with a continuing cycle
of violence that can last for decades before another ethnic war breaks
out. Chatham House and BBC
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra,
yellow shirt, Thai-Chinese, red shirt, Thai-Thai, Pheu Thai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
al-Qaeda, Samak Sundaravej, Hua Hin, Cambodia, killing fields
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
