01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
(01-13-2021, 03:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Either the system is wrong, the polling is wrong a week before the election, or the 2020 election is not normal.
Can I go with all of the above?
A) The system of polling is broken and has been for awhile. It has to do with failures of traditional polling models in a tight race to create an accurate representative model of the electorate and reach enough representative members of it to take an accurate survey. Also, the way the media uses polls to craft a narrative means that a pollster is less likely to get paid in future if it doesn't return results the people footing the bills want to see. Almost anyone working in polling was aware something was seriously off with the Biden landslide narrative from the start.
B) The election of 2020 was not normal. Process changes were made in most states and one side was quick to take advantage of the new rules while the other kept playing the game the old way. A bit of the inverse of the 2016 election where Hilary went for an overwhelming majority popular vote and neglected to pay attention to the electoral wins she needed. The process changes meant that any previous models of the probable election were wildly off since voter turnout was insane.
A+B = C) the polling was bound to be wrong a week before the election.
