01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
(01-13-2021, 04:09 PM)David Horn Wrote: A bit off topic, but the art of prediction is getting rusty on many fronts. Economic models don't work any more either. The sainted Phillips Curve is all but totally worthless, yet is was the primary tool used by economists as recently as 10 years ago. Modernity has finally changed the rules ... all of them.
As we STEM graduates like to point out - social science is 90% the first and 10% the other. Many models are only as good as the assumptions put into them and the data set they are mining. What works in explaining past behavior can seem perfectly true and logical right up until you hit actual behavior. Yeah, I am aware there is an irony to saying that on this particular forum.
Thing is, about 2004ish I actually started thinking the Strauss-Howe model didn't work because the generations didn't look like what they were supposed to. I totally missed that the collective and increasingly intolerant nature of Millenials would be played out online because I never got involved in social media.
