02-18-2021, 11:15 PM
*** 19-Feb-21 World View -- Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
****
![[Image: g210218b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210218b.jpg)
Feb 29 2020 signing ceremony for US-Taliban peace agreement (Tolo News)
On Thursday, Nato defense ministers met in Brussels and decided to
postpone the planned withdrawal of Nato troops, previously scheduled
for May 1. The Taliban have threatened that unless the troops are
withdrawn, then there will be a major escalation in the Taliban's
spring fighting season, and indeed the violence is already increasing.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are poised to return to power in
Afghanistan, either through negotiations or through a renewed civil
war, after they had been removed from power by the United States in
2001, after the 9/11 attacks.
In 2009 I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis summarized
below, that peace was impossible in Afghanistan, no matter how many
troops the US and Nato sent there, which means that the Taliban would
return to power if American troops withdrew. That prediction is being
proven true once again, and we now appear close to a historic
dénouement.
In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration reached a delusional
agreement with the Taliban to bring a new era of peace to Afghanistan.
America and Nato would remove all its troops by May of this year and,
in return, the Taliban would stop funding al-Qaeda and would sever
all its ties to al-Qaeda. The Taliban didn't promise to stop violence
altogether, but did promise to "tone down" the violence.
As part of the agreement, peace talks took place between America
and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. These peace talks were also completely
delusional. The Afghan government weren't in the talks. And NATO,
which also has troops in Afghanistan, weren't in the talks. In fact,
the entire "peace process" has always been delusional.
Trump removed all but 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, and had every
intention of removing all troops by May 1, but Joe Biden has promised
to review that decision. But what happens now is now a Brussels
decision rather than a Washington decision.
****
**** Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
****
Nato still has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, and they were
scheduled to leave by May 1 as well. It's clear that's not
happening, simply from the fact that they haven't yet
"started packing."
BBC's Lyse Doucet interviewed Nato's Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday.
Parts of what he said were hopeful but delusional, but in other parts
he conceded that the hopeful parts were not going to happen.
The Taliban are claiming that they've met their commitments to reduce
violence and end ties with international terrorists. However,
violence has been increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, a UN panel
headed by Edmund Fitton-Brown has found that "There is still clearly a
close relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We believe that
the top leadership of Al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection."
The Taliban are promising a major escalation of violence unless
the US and Nato troops withdraw by May 1. Since it's clear
that the troops will not withdraw by May 1, it's clear that a
major escalation in fighting will begin in the new spring
fighting season.
Here is what Stoltenberg said in the interview (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"So we really believe that this not the time to make a
final decision, because we'd like to give every chance to the
peace process, the peace talks, to succeed.
Those talks are fragile and difficult, there is no easy option in
Afghanistan, but there is still a possibility to reach a lasting
political agreement, and all parties should engage in those talks,
and the Taliban must reduce violence and must negotiate in good
faith, and they must stop cooperating with the international
terrorists.
And by doing that, they will also provide the platform to find a
political solution.
[Question: So you may be in Afghanistan for many years go come?]
Absolutely, as I said, there are no easy options in Afghanistan,
and we face many difficult dilemmas. If we decide to stay beyond
May 1, then we risk more violence against our troops, and of
course we risk continued long-term involvement in a very difficult
operation in Afghanistan. But if we leave, we risk that
Afghanistan once again becomes a safe haven for international
terrorists, planning attacks against our own countries as we saw
on 9/11 and also losing all the gains we made on human rights,
especially for women over last years.
So this is difficult. That's the reason at this stage why we
believe this is not the right time to make a final decision on
whether we leave or stay, but continue to support the efforts to
re-energize the peace talks.
[Question: The Taliban say they have kept their commitments. Do
you believe you have solid evidence that they have not cut there
ties with al-Qaeda, that there is still a risk that Afghanistan
could once again be a safe haven to launch attacks against Europe
and the United States?]
What we have seen is an increase in violence, not a decrease in
violence. We have seen that the peace talks are almost stopped,
there is hardly any progress at all.
And the Taliban has to do more and they have to live up to their
commitments especially related to counterterrorism, break ties
with terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>
According to Doucet, this is so far the worst Taliban fighting season
ever, and it will get worse when the snow melts. In fact there's been
so little snow this winter, the doctors in the National Police
Hospital said that they had never seen so many casualties from so many
provinces at this time of year.
So the delusional parts of Stoltenberg's interview are when he says,
"we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks,
to succeed." That's delusional because there is zero probability that
the peace talks will succeed, since the Taliban are committed to them
not succeeding, and are using the peace talks as a ploy to get the
Nato forces to withdraw, so that the Taliban can overrun Kabul and
resume the control they had before they were ejected by American
forces after 9/11/2001.
According to a European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato
cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully." That's the choice facing
Nato right now.
And so the war will go on and be substantially escalated again
when the Taliban's spring fighting season begins in earnest.
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.
The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
So when Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato wants to give the peace
process a chance, he knows that statement is delusional, and the only
relevant statement is the one by the unnamed European diplomat: "This
war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it
pitifully."
****
**** Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
****
As regular readers know, I have been writing a book on the history of
Vietnam, to complement my previous books on the histories of Iran and
China. The book is nearing publication, and I now expect it to be
published on Amazon in March.
Here are the front and back book covers:
![[Image: vnbk620bb.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/vnbk620bb.jpg)
Front and back covers of forthcoming book on history of Vietnam
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition
- Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Nato, Brussels, Parliamentary Assembly,
Lyce Doucet, Jens Stoltenberg, Edmund Fitton-Brown,
Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
- Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
- Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
- Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
****
**** Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
****
Feb 29 2020 signing ceremony for US-Taliban peace agreement (Tolo News)
On Thursday, Nato defense ministers met in Brussels and decided to
postpone the planned withdrawal of Nato troops, previously scheduled
for May 1. The Taliban have threatened that unless the troops are
withdrawn, then there will be a major escalation in the Taliban's
spring fighting season, and indeed the violence is already increasing.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are poised to return to power in
Afghanistan, either through negotiations or through a renewed civil
war, after they had been removed from power by the United States in
2001, after the 9/11 attacks.
In 2009 I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis summarized
below, that peace was impossible in Afghanistan, no matter how many
troops the US and Nato sent there, which means that the Taliban would
return to power if American troops withdrew. That prediction is being
proven true once again, and we now appear close to a historic
dénouement.
In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration reached a delusional
agreement with the Taliban to bring a new era of peace to Afghanistan.
America and Nato would remove all its troops by May of this year and,
in return, the Taliban would stop funding al-Qaeda and would sever
all its ties to al-Qaeda. The Taliban didn't promise to stop violence
altogether, but did promise to "tone down" the violence.
As part of the agreement, peace talks took place between America
and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. These peace talks were also completely
delusional. The Afghan government weren't in the talks. And NATO,
which also has troops in Afghanistan, weren't in the talks. In fact,
the entire "peace process" has always been delusional.
Trump removed all but 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, and had every
intention of removing all troops by May 1, but Joe Biden has promised
to review that decision. But what happens now is now a Brussels
decision rather than a Washington decision.
****
**** Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
****
Nato still has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, and they were
scheduled to leave by May 1 as well. It's clear that's not
happening, simply from the fact that they haven't yet
"started packing."
BBC's Lyse Doucet interviewed Nato's Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday.
Parts of what he said were hopeful but delusional, but in other parts
he conceded that the hopeful parts were not going to happen.
The Taliban are claiming that they've met their commitments to reduce
violence and end ties with international terrorists. However,
violence has been increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, a UN panel
headed by Edmund Fitton-Brown has found that "There is still clearly a
close relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We believe that
the top leadership of Al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection."
The Taliban are promising a major escalation of violence unless
the US and Nato troops withdraw by May 1. Since it's clear
that the troops will not withdraw by May 1, it's clear that a
major escalation in fighting will begin in the new spring
fighting season.
Here is what Stoltenberg said in the interview (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"So we really believe that this not the time to make a
final decision, because we'd like to give every chance to the
peace process, the peace talks, to succeed.
Those talks are fragile and difficult, there is no easy option in
Afghanistan, but there is still a possibility to reach a lasting
political agreement, and all parties should engage in those talks,
and the Taliban must reduce violence and must negotiate in good
faith, and they must stop cooperating with the international
terrorists.
And by doing that, they will also provide the platform to find a
political solution.
[Question: So you may be in Afghanistan for many years go come?]
Absolutely, as I said, there are no easy options in Afghanistan,
and we face many difficult dilemmas. If we decide to stay beyond
May 1, then we risk more violence against our troops, and of
course we risk continued long-term involvement in a very difficult
operation in Afghanistan. But if we leave, we risk that
Afghanistan once again becomes a safe haven for international
terrorists, planning attacks against our own countries as we saw
on 9/11 and also losing all the gains we made on human rights,
especially for women over last years.
So this is difficult. That's the reason at this stage why we
believe this is not the right time to make a final decision on
whether we leave or stay, but continue to support the efforts to
re-energize the peace talks.
[Question: The Taliban say they have kept their commitments. Do
you believe you have solid evidence that they have not cut there
ties with al-Qaeda, that there is still a risk that Afghanistan
could once again be a safe haven to launch attacks against Europe
and the United States?]
What we have seen is an increase in violence, not a decrease in
violence. We have seen that the peace talks are almost stopped,
there is hardly any progress at all.
And the Taliban has to do more and they have to live up to their
commitments especially related to counterterrorism, break ties
with terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>
According to Doucet, this is so far the worst Taliban fighting season
ever, and it will get worse when the snow melts. In fact there's been
so little snow this winter, the doctors in the National Police
Hospital said that they had never seen so many casualties from so many
provinces at this time of year.
So the delusional parts of Stoltenberg's interview are when he says,
"we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks,
to succeed." That's delusional because there is zero probability that
the peace talks will succeed, since the Taliban are committed to them
not succeeding, and are using the peace talks as a ploy to get the
Nato forces to withdraw, so that the Taliban can overrun Kabul and
resume the control they had before they were ejected by American
forces after 9/11/2001.
According to a European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato
cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully." That's the choice facing
Nato right now.
And so the war will go on and be substantially escalated again
when the Taliban's spring fighting season begins in earnest.
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.
The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
So when Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato wants to give the peace
process a chance, he knows that statement is delusional, and the only
relevant statement is the one by the unnamed European diplomat: "This
war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it
pitifully."
****
**** Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
****
As regular readers know, I have been writing a book on the history of
Vietnam, to complement my previous books on the histories of Iran and
China. The book is nearing publication, and I now expect it to be
published on Amazon in March.
Here are the front and back book covers:
Front and back covers of forthcoming book on history of Vietnam
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition
- Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/
Sources:
- NATO Chief: No Final Decision on Afghanistan Pullout (Tolo News, Kabul, 18-Feb-2021)
- Taliban Insists on US Pullout in Open Letter to American People (Tolo News, Kabul, 16-Feb-2021)
- Thousands of Anonymous Tweets Call for US Troop Pullout (Tolo News, Kabul, 15-Feb-2021)
- Int’l Troops in Afghanistan Favor No One: Taliban (Tolo News, Kabul, 14-Feb-2021)
- Kandahar Officials Silent Over Reports of Growing Unrest (Tolo News, Kabul, 18-Feb-2021)
- NATO Faces Conundrum as It Mulls Afghan Pullout (Diplomat/AP, 17-Feb-2021)
- Taliban Urges US Public to Demand Early Pullout From Afghanistan (VOA, 16-Feb-2021)
- Taliban Warns NATO to Push Ahead With Troop Withdrawal in Afghanistan (AFP, 13-Feb-2021)
- Germany warns against swift withdrawal from Afghanistan (Reuters, 17-Feb-2021)
- Taliban keep close ties with Al Qaeda despite promise to U.S. (NBC News, 17-Feb-2021)
- New Zealand to End Military Deployment in Afghanistan (AFP, 17-Feb-2021)
- NATO eyes post-Trump reset as Afghanistan call looms (AFP, 17-Feb-2021)
- Biden administration takes more cooperative approach to its first high-level NATO meeting (Washington Post, 17-Feb-2021)
- Afghanistan (Nato Parliamentary Assembly, 17-Feb-2021)
- NATO Chief: No Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan ‘Before the Time Is Right’ (VOA, 15-Feb-2021)
- NATO will leave Afghanistan when ‘time is right’: Stoltenberg (Al-Jazeera, 15-Feb-2021)
Related Articles:
- Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan (18-Jan-2021)
- Afghan 'peace talks' threatened by terrorist rocket attack on Kabul (22-Nov-2020)
- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan (16-Dec-2019)
- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan (16-Feb-2020)
- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable (06-Dec-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Nato, Brussels, Parliamentary Assembly,
Lyce Doucet, Jens Stoltenberg, Edmund Fitton-Brown,
Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
