03-05-2021, 11:45 PM
*** 6-Mar-21 World View -- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
****
![[Image: g210305b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210305b.jpg)
Protesters set up a street blockade in Mandalay, Myanmar (AP)
Last Sunday (February 28) was a major turning point in the violence in
Myanmar / Burma, when the army security forces began using lethal
force and adopted a shoot-to-kill policy, killing peaceful protesters
for the first time. The protests were the largest that Myanmar has
seen since 2007. They began when the iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi
was arrested on Jan 28, along with her government ministers. (See
"2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials"
)
Up till last Sunday, the army had been using non-lethal tactics,
including tear gas and rubber bullets. But on Sunday they began using
live ammunition, and the level of violence has been increasing every
day since then. Dozens of protesters have been killed so far, and
thousands have been arrested, including 29 journalists.
Several analysts have said that the army is purposely increasing the
level of violence each day in order to break the back of the protests.
This tactic worked in 2007. Hundreds of activists and citizens were
shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of
Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were gathered up
and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. The
protests finally fizzled when the violence became lethal enough.
However, there's a big difference in public mood between now and 2007.
Unlike then, the country today is in a generational Crisis era, and
so, unlike then, the mood of both the army and the protesters is not
to compromise. This means that it's unlikely the violence will
fizzle, and more likely that it will continue to escalate. The next
step for the army would be machine guns and assault rifles.
The fact that young, innocent people are being killed is infuriating
the protesters. There have been complaints of cruelty, even sadism,
by the security forces. There have been brutal attacks on innocent
medics, and all hospitals are closed in many cities.
The increase in lethal violence so far has not deterred the protesters
who remain defiant and, if anything, have been growing in numbers.
The protesters are wearing whatever protective equipment they can
find, like makeshift shields. Some are using satellite dishes as
shields, or are wearing helmets. They've tasted freedom in the last
few years, and they cannot tolerate a new dictatorship by military
junta.
Protesters are heavily using their mobile phones to publicize the
violence. Although it's dangerous to do so, they're filming the
violence and then loading the video onto twitter or live streaming it
onto facebook.
Probably the military junta has been most hurt by civil disobedience
and the national strikes by the banks, and even in the civil service,
by workers in health, education, labor, and immigration.
The army has used videos on Tiktok to threaten the protesters. A
typical video shows a soldier pointing a big gun at the camera and
saying that protesters will be shot dead. Tiktok claims that it has
removed most of those videos.
****
**** International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
****
The UN Security Council met on Friday and, not surprisingly,
accomplished nothing. Any condemnation of the violence in Myanmar
will be vetoed by China and Russia, rather than risk having violence
in their own countries be condemned.
The US and UK are planning their own sanctions. There are planned
sanctions targeting the assets of the members of the military council
and imposing travel restrictions, as well as an arms embargo.
There is no chance that these sanctions will stop the military junta.
****
**** Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
****
Both BBC and al-Jazeera have been interviewing people in Myanmar, and
they're describing a different situation than is portrayed by the
so-called "international community," as represented by the UN and
NGOs.
The international community has provided verbal condemnation that the
violence is unacceptable and must stop immediately, that peaceful
protests much be permitted, and that Aung San Suu Kyi must be released
from jail and returned as leader of the government. And if the
violence doesn't stop, the international community is threatening even
worse verbal condemnations, and possibly even to hold more meetings.
However, some reports have pointed out that although the Burmese mobs
support that solution, the ethnic minorities in Myanmar are opposed to
it. This opposition point of view was discussed at length by Khin Zaw
Win, a Burmese anti-government activist and journalist who was
imprisoned by the army from 1994-2005 for "seditious writings," and
who was interviewed on the BBC.
According to Khin, the ethnic minorities are opposed to Aung San Suu
Kyi because she was part of the government that discriminated against
minorities. Furthermore, she damaged herself deeply by becoming a
useful idiot and siding with the army when the army was conducting
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingys in Rakhine State,
even going so far as traveling to the Hague in December 2019 to defend
the Burmese army against charges of war crimes. It is an irony that
the army that she defended turned around and threw her under the bus,
arresting her and her entire government when she was no longer useful
to the army.
The Burmese majority and the ethnic minorities have been temporarily
united by the military coup and the resulting violence against
peaceful street protesters. However, they do not share a common
objective. What the ethnic minorities want is a new constitution,
with greater political autonomy and greater rights for ethnic
minorities. And nobody believes that solution is even remotely
possible.
****
**** Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
****
Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic
groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)
The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 49 years after the climax of
the last crisis war, during a generational Unraveling era. At that
time, there were many people in the army who had lived through the
1958 slaughter, and stopped short of trying to repeat it. Similarly,
the young people who protested in 2007 had parents who had lived
through the 1958 slaughter, and who held back their children from
going too far in risking their lives.
But since 2016, Burma has been in a generational Crisis era. The
people who had lived through the 1958 slaughter are gone or retired,
and have lost their influence. The younger generation of protesters
have no memory of the 1958 slaughter, and do not fear what's coming.
The current generation of people in the army also have no memory of
the 1958 slaughter. What they remember is the 2007 protests, and they
remember that those protests fizzled when the army began escalating
the violence.
The current protesters also remember the 2007 protests, and they
remember how the protesters at that time simply surrendered when they
didn't have to.
This is how a generational Crisis era is different from a generational
Unraveling era. Today, the army has no inhibitions against escalating
its violence, and the protesters have no inhibitions against
continuing to protest, even if some of them get killed. That makes it
unlikely that the current situation will simply fizzle.
The situation is further complicated by the ethnic minorities. The
1948-1958 crisis war was a civil war involving all the ethnic groups,
especially the Burmese, the Kachin and the Shan. The latter three
groups are currently aligned in their opposition to the army, but what
we are seeing are the first signs of a massive new ethnic civil war.
****
**** Consequences of a new Burma civil war
****
According to the Generational Dynamics analysis, the current clashes
are fairly likely to escalate into a full scale civil war, although
that is not a certainty. However, the current situation is so febrile
that even if some temporary truce is worked out -- and this would have
to include freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and her government -- then the
violence will resume again before long.
Arguably, the civil war already began in 2012, when the army began its
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingyas. The army
referred to the Rohingyas as "enemies of the state," but now the
ordinary Burmese people have also become "enemies of the state."
If the violence escalates into a full-scale civil war, it could affect
the entire region. There are now almost a million Rohingyas living in
filthy refugee camps just across the border in Bangladesh, and they're
looking for revenge. If there is a general breakdown in law and order
in Myanmar, then those Rohingya refugees may well cross back into
Myanmar and join the fighting. This could also bring Bangladesh
itself into the fighting.
The separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has joined together with
the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along
the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's
army. These groups have had occasional clashes with China's army
along the border inside China, and those clashes would probably
escalate if there is a civil war in Burma. In fact, China was heavily
involved in the crisis war that climaxed in 1958, and history will
certainly repeat itself, with China heavily involved in a new civil
war in Burma.
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a new
world war between the US and China, but does not predict the scenario
that will lead to that war. We've speculated that it may begin with a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan, or it may begin with a war
between India and Pakistan, or it may begin in the Mideast and spread
from there.
But here we see another possibility. If a massive civil war occurs in
Burma, and it spreads to involve China and Bangladesh, then it may
spread further to other countries in Central Asia, bringing in India
and Russia.
And so, Dear Reader, keep your eye on Myanmar / Burma. Even if you're
totally addicted to watching the political sewer in Washington, try to
avert you eyes every once in a while, if only for a few moments, to
see something that may affect the lives of you and your family more
than the latest lockdown.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Burmans, Shan,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
- International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
- Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
- Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
- Consequences of a new Burma civil war
****
**** Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
****
Protesters set up a street blockade in Mandalay, Myanmar (AP)
Last Sunday (February 28) was a major turning point in the violence in
Myanmar / Burma, when the army security forces began using lethal
force and adopted a shoot-to-kill policy, killing peaceful protesters
for the first time. The protests were the largest that Myanmar has
seen since 2007. They began when the iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi
was arrested on Jan 28, along with her government ministers. (See
"2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials"
)
Up till last Sunday, the army had been using non-lethal tactics,
including tear gas and rubber bullets. But on Sunday they began using
live ammunition, and the level of violence has been increasing every
day since then. Dozens of protesters have been killed so far, and
thousands have been arrested, including 29 journalists.
Several analysts have said that the army is purposely increasing the
level of violence each day in order to break the back of the protests.
This tactic worked in 2007. Hundreds of activists and citizens were
shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of
Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were gathered up
and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. The
protests finally fizzled when the violence became lethal enough.
However, there's a big difference in public mood between now and 2007.
Unlike then, the country today is in a generational Crisis era, and
so, unlike then, the mood of both the army and the protesters is not
to compromise. This means that it's unlikely the violence will
fizzle, and more likely that it will continue to escalate. The next
step for the army would be machine guns and assault rifles.
The fact that young, innocent people are being killed is infuriating
the protesters. There have been complaints of cruelty, even sadism,
by the security forces. There have been brutal attacks on innocent
medics, and all hospitals are closed in many cities.
The increase in lethal violence so far has not deterred the protesters
who remain defiant and, if anything, have been growing in numbers.
The protesters are wearing whatever protective equipment they can
find, like makeshift shields. Some are using satellite dishes as
shields, or are wearing helmets. They've tasted freedom in the last
few years, and they cannot tolerate a new dictatorship by military
junta.
Protesters are heavily using their mobile phones to publicize the
violence. Although it's dangerous to do so, they're filming the
violence and then loading the video onto twitter or live streaming it
onto facebook.
Probably the military junta has been most hurt by civil disobedience
and the national strikes by the banks, and even in the civil service,
by workers in health, education, labor, and immigration.
The army has used videos on Tiktok to threaten the protesters. A
typical video shows a soldier pointing a big gun at the camera and
saying that protesters will be shot dead. Tiktok claims that it has
removed most of those videos.
****
**** International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
****
The UN Security Council met on Friday and, not surprisingly,
accomplished nothing. Any condemnation of the violence in Myanmar
will be vetoed by China and Russia, rather than risk having violence
in their own countries be condemned.
The US and UK are planning their own sanctions. There are planned
sanctions targeting the assets of the members of the military council
and imposing travel restrictions, as well as an arms embargo.
There is no chance that these sanctions will stop the military junta.
****
**** Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
****
Both BBC and al-Jazeera have been interviewing people in Myanmar, and
they're describing a different situation than is portrayed by the
so-called "international community," as represented by the UN and
NGOs.
The international community has provided verbal condemnation that the
violence is unacceptable and must stop immediately, that peaceful
protests much be permitted, and that Aung San Suu Kyi must be released
from jail and returned as leader of the government. And if the
violence doesn't stop, the international community is threatening even
worse verbal condemnations, and possibly even to hold more meetings.
However, some reports have pointed out that although the Burmese mobs
support that solution, the ethnic minorities in Myanmar are opposed to
it. This opposition point of view was discussed at length by Khin Zaw
Win, a Burmese anti-government activist and journalist who was
imprisoned by the army from 1994-2005 for "seditious writings," and
who was interviewed on the BBC.
According to Khin, the ethnic minorities are opposed to Aung San Suu
Kyi because she was part of the government that discriminated against
minorities. Furthermore, she damaged herself deeply by becoming a
useful idiot and siding with the army when the army was conducting
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingys in Rakhine State,
even going so far as traveling to the Hague in December 2019 to defend
the Burmese army against charges of war crimes. It is an irony that
the army that she defended turned around and threw her under the bus,
arresting her and her entire government when she was no longer useful
to the army.
The Burmese majority and the ethnic minorities have been temporarily
united by the military coup and the resulting violence against
peaceful street protesters. However, they do not share a common
objective. What the ethnic minorities want is a new constitution,
with greater political autonomy and greater rights for ethnic
minorities. And nobody believes that solution is even remotely
possible.
****
**** Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
****
Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic
groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)
The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 49 years after the climax of
the last crisis war, during a generational Unraveling era. At that
time, there were many people in the army who had lived through the
1958 slaughter, and stopped short of trying to repeat it. Similarly,
the young people who protested in 2007 had parents who had lived
through the 1958 slaughter, and who held back their children from
going too far in risking their lives.
But since 2016, Burma has been in a generational Crisis era. The
people who had lived through the 1958 slaughter are gone or retired,
and have lost their influence. The younger generation of protesters
have no memory of the 1958 slaughter, and do not fear what's coming.
The current generation of people in the army also have no memory of
the 1958 slaughter. What they remember is the 2007 protests, and they
remember that those protests fizzled when the army began escalating
the violence.
The current protesters also remember the 2007 protests, and they
remember how the protesters at that time simply surrendered when they
didn't have to.
This is how a generational Crisis era is different from a generational
Unraveling era. Today, the army has no inhibitions against escalating
its violence, and the protesters have no inhibitions against
continuing to protest, even if some of them get killed. That makes it
unlikely that the current situation will simply fizzle.
The situation is further complicated by the ethnic minorities. The
1948-1958 crisis war was a civil war involving all the ethnic groups,
especially the Burmese, the Kachin and the Shan. The latter three
groups are currently aligned in their opposition to the army, but what
we are seeing are the first signs of a massive new ethnic civil war.
****
**** Consequences of a new Burma civil war
****
According to the Generational Dynamics analysis, the current clashes
are fairly likely to escalate into a full scale civil war, although
that is not a certainty. However, the current situation is so febrile
that even if some temporary truce is worked out -- and this would have
to include freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and her government -- then the
violence will resume again before long.
Arguably, the civil war already began in 2012, when the army began its
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingyas. The army
referred to the Rohingyas as "enemies of the state," but now the
ordinary Burmese people have also become "enemies of the state."
If the violence escalates into a full-scale civil war, it could affect
the entire region. There are now almost a million Rohingyas living in
filthy refugee camps just across the border in Bangladesh, and they're
looking for revenge. If there is a general breakdown in law and order
in Myanmar, then those Rohingya refugees may well cross back into
Myanmar and join the fighting. This could also bring Bangladesh
itself into the fighting.
The separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has joined together with
the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along
the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's
army. These groups have had occasional clashes with China's army
along the border inside China, and those clashes would probably
escalate if there is a civil war in Burma. In fact, China was heavily
involved in the crisis war that climaxed in 1958, and history will
certainly repeat itself, with China heavily involved in a new civil
war in Burma.
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a new
world war between the US and China, but does not predict the scenario
that will lead to that war. We've speculated that it may begin with a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan, or it may begin with a war
between India and Pakistan, or it may begin in the Mideast and spread
from there.
But here we see another possibility. If a massive civil war occurs in
Burma, and it spreads to involve China and Bangladesh, then it may
spread further to other countries in Central Asia, bringing in India
and Russia.
And so, Dear Reader, keep your eye on Myanmar / Burma. Even if you're
totally addicted to watching the political sewer in Washington, try to
avert you eyes every once in a while, if only for a few moments, to
see something that may affect the lives of you and your family more
than the latest lockdown.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
- Protesters defy Myanmar security forces as UN action urged (AP, 6-Mar-2021)
- Myanmar coup sparks unprecedented unity of ethnic groups (Nikkei, 2-Mar-2021)
- Myanmar suffers more deaths than in 2007 crackdown (Nikkei, 4-Mar-2021)
- Three police officers from coup-hit Myanmar seek refuge in India (Al-Jazeera, 4-Mar-2021)
- Khin Zaw Win: Protests in Myanmar (BBC Hardtalk, 4-Mar-2021)
- Khin Zaw Win: How populism directed against minorities is used to prop up Myanmar’s ‘Democratic’ revival (Open Democracy, 12-Mar-2018)
- Burma / Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar (Crisis Group, 28-Aug-2020)
- More Than 600 Police Join Myanmar’s Anti-Regime Protest Movement (Irrawaddy, Myanmar, 5-Mar-2021)
- For Myanmar Military, Rule No. 1 in Riot Control Is Shoot to Kill (Irrawaddy, Myanmar, 2-Mar-2021)
- Protests, mourning as world condemns Myanmar crackdown (Al-Jazeera, 4-Mar-2021)
- Clash over Myanmar U.N. seat averted as diplomatic revolt against junta widens (Reuters, 4-Mar-2021)
- Myanmar crackdown on protests, widely filmed, sparks outrage (AP, 4-Mar-2021)
Related Articles:
- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow (08-Feb-2021)
- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials (02-Feb-2021)
- Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter (26-Sep-2007)
- Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response (02-Oct-2007)
- Pompeo bashes China over genocide, virus, Taiwan on last days of Trump administration (20-Jan-2021)
- America and the standard Genocide Playbook (12-Jan-2021)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Burmans, Shan,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
