03-15-2021, 09:39 PM
** 15-Mar-2021 World View: Syria vs Burma/Myanmar
There are significant differences.
The Syria civil war began during a generational Awakening era. The
war would have fizzled, and in fact al-Assad was losing the war in
2015, but Russia, Iran and Hezbollah moved in to support al-Assad. So
the war was internationalized when other countries entered to support
al-Assad, and also when young Sunnis from some 80 countries traveled
to Syria to fight against al-Assad, eventually forming ISIS.
Myanmar/Burma is well into a generational Crisis era, so there is no
chance of the civil war fizzling. Other countries may get involved,
but not because they need to support junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.
China may get drawn in because the protesters are blaming China for
supporting the junta. Over the weekend, two China-owned factories in
Yangon were burned down.
India may get drawn because Burma refugees may flee across the border
into India. Already, about a dozen Burmese policemen have crossed
into India seeking asylum because they don't want to kill civilians,
and Burma is demanding that they be extradited. If India gets
involved, it may be on the side of the junta, since India also has a
lot of Rohingya refugees.
DaKardii Wrote:> Exactly ten years after the civil war in Syria began under similar
> circumstances. Could history repeat [in Burma]? And if it does,
> could it drag in the US, China, and India into a proxy
> war?
There are significant differences.
The Syria civil war began during a generational Awakening era. The
war would have fizzled, and in fact al-Assad was losing the war in
2015, but Russia, Iran and Hezbollah moved in to support al-Assad. So
the war was internationalized when other countries entered to support
al-Assad, and also when young Sunnis from some 80 countries traveled
to Syria to fight against al-Assad, eventually forming ISIS.
Myanmar/Burma is well into a generational Crisis era, so there is no
chance of the civil war fizzling. Other countries may get involved,
but not because they need to support junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.
China may get drawn in because the protesters are blaming China for
supporting the junta. Over the weekend, two China-owned factories in
Yangon were burned down.
India may get drawn because Burma refugees may flee across the border
into India. Already, about a dozen Burmese policemen have crossed
into India seeking asylum because they don't want to kill civilians,
and Burma is demanding that they be extradited. If India gets
involved, it may be on the side of the junta, since India also has a
lot of Rohingya refugees.
