03-15-2021, 09:45 PM
*** 16-Mar-21 World View -- After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
****
![[Image: g210315b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210315b.jpg)
Map of Syria showing areas of control, as of February 2021 (BBC)
On Thursday of last week, a three-way conference was held in Doha,
Qatar's capital, to lay the groundwork for a political solution to war
in Syria that began in 2011. Qatar has suffered some foreign policy
defeats in recent years, and is looking for a new role to play, and
apparently sees this as a way of gaining increased influence in the
Mideast.
The conference was attended by ministers form Qatar, Russia and
Turkey. They were Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Russia's Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.
According to Cavusoglu: "Today we launched a new trilateral
consultation process. Our goal is to discuss how we can contribute to
efforts towards a lasting political solution in Syria."
This is laughable. The United Nations has appointed several envoys --
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura -- to mediate a
political solution, and in the end they all resigned in disgust after
being made useful idiots by Bashar al-Assad. In neach case they
provided cover for al-Assad to continue his war crimes and genocide
targeting innocent Arab Sunnis, and also provided cover for al-Assad's
supporters in Russia and Iran, allowing them to make sanctimonious
statements while they support al-Assad's bloody slaughter. The UN has
recently appointed a new envoy, Geir Pedersen, who sounds to me like
all the others, and speaks the same nonsense.
All of these envoys say the same thing: "A military solution is
impossible. There has to be a political solution." The problem is
that Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have joined together, and have
brought about a military holocaust in Syria. Bashar al-Assad believes
that he is close to a total victory, and will never agree to any
political solution.
So now Qatar wants to take on the role of mediator. Qatar is a little
different from the envoys because it openly supports tne anti-Assad
Arab political opposition, while the UN envoys are supposedly neutral.
But Qatari officials apparently believe that they can use their
existing relationship with Russia to bring something about.
Russia's Vladimir Putin, of course, doesn't care how many Sunni Arabs
Bashar al-Assad beats, tortures, rapes or kills. Russia is supporting
al-Assad because it wants to retain control of its two military bases
in Syria, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase. When
al-Assad begged Putin for military help in 2015, Putin agreed to help,
and received control of the two military bases in return.
****
**** Ten years of war have turned an affluent Syria into a country in ruins
****
Ten years ago, Syria used to be a beautiful, affluent middle-class
country. Today, the entire country looks like a war zone, with
buildings destroyed everywhere, particularly schools, hospitals and
markets.
Of the 22 million people that lived in Syria before the war, about
half a million have been killed, and more than 12 million people have
been forced to flee their homes, either becoming refugees or displaced
people in their own country.
Today, Syria is an economic basket case, with massive poverty among
people who still live there, and among Syrians who live in refugee
camps in Lebanon and Turkey.
The Syrian currency, the Lira, has crashed. $10 used to give you 500
Syrian Lira. Now $10 is 40,000 Syrian Lira. Money-changers need carts
to carry their currency, in a scene reminiscent of the wheelbarrows of
money in Germany in the hyperinflation of the early 1920s.
Post-war discontent with corruption, spiralling food prices, a
collapsed currency, worsening power cuts and gasoline shortages have
aggravated hardships for the remaining citizens.
****
**** The remaining battleground in Idlib province
****
The war in Syria has become more or less static in the last year.
There are about 2.5 million Sunni Arabs in Idlib province, which is in
northwest Syria along the border with Turkey, and I had expected that
Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, would by this time
have found a way to exterminate many of the 2.5 million people, who
are mostly women and children. But Turkey has sent its own troops and
tanks into Idlib, and al-Assad's extermination process has been
slowed.
Al-Assad himself has been shown by defectors to be someone who gets
obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their
fingernails, or other forms of torture. (See "8-Feb-17 World View -- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad"
)
Most of the civilians in Idlib are women and children refugees from
other provinces, including Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa and Quneitra. In
each of the other provinces, al-Assad sent missiles into school
dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden with
metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.
Al-Assad's barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons have
specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill
as many women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier
than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking
women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by
missiles and gunfire. As if that wasn't enough, al-Assad was
supported by Russian warplanes.
In each case, international pressure forced al-Assad to allow hundreds
of thousands of civilians, mostly women and children, to escape to
Idlib province. The result is that about half the population in Idlib
is refugees from other provinces.
Bashar al-Assad repeatedly vowed to attack Idlib next, with Russian
support, and to exterminate all the Sunni Arab civilians. This threat
actually presented a huge threat to Turkey and even to Europe, as
those attacks would drive millions of refugees across the border into
Turkey, and possibly into Europe from there.
To block this, Turkey sent its own troops into Idlib, so that an
attack on Idlib would be an attack on Turkey. This has prevented the
expected extermination of Sunni Arabs in Idlib. But it has also
raised pressure on Turkey to end its "occupation" of Syrian territory.
****
**** Qatar's strategy in offering to mediate the Syrian war
****
From the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, Qatar, provided huge
financial, political and media support for opposition groups,
especially armed ones. However, this aid stopped in 2015 when Russia
intervened.
Qatar has for years had sharp differences with the other members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from
Qatar after a stormy meeting. One issue was Qatar's friendly
relationship with Iran,as well as Qatari support for two organizations
that Saudi Arabia and UAE consider to be terrorist organizations --
the Muslim Brotherhood and the Union of Muslim Scholars.
They papered over their differences in 2014, but the diffeences
exploded in June 2016, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations and imposed a sea, air
and land blockade on Qatar. Qatar is a very wealthy country and was
able to weather this blockade, but it lost influence in the Mideast.
There has been some softening of the blockade in recent months. That
change, combined with the presence of a new admiistration in the
United States, has led Qatar to change direction and reactivate its
diplomatic posture.
Having ended its aid to Syrian opposition groups in 2014, Qatar is now
returning to mediation in the Syria war, taking advantage of what it
hopes are its existing good relations with Russia and Iran.
****
**** Syrian war timeline
****
The following timeline lists the major events in the ten-year Syrian
war?
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qatar,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, Vladimir Putin,
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Geir Pedersen,
Idlib province, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Quneitra.
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Muslim Brotherhood, Union of Muslim Scholars.
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad, Aleppo University,
Sarin gas, chlorine, barrel bombs,
al-Ramel Palestinian refugee camp, Latakia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
- Ten years of war have turned an affluent Syria into a country in ruins
- The remaining battleground in Idlib province
- Qatar's strategy in offering to mediate the Syrian war
- Syrian war timeline
****
**** After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
****
Map of Syria showing areas of control, as of February 2021 (BBC)
On Thursday of last week, a three-way conference was held in Doha,
Qatar's capital, to lay the groundwork for a political solution to war
in Syria that began in 2011. Qatar has suffered some foreign policy
defeats in recent years, and is looking for a new role to play, and
apparently sees this as a way of gaining increased influence in the
Mideast.
The conference was attended by ministers form Qatar, Russia and
Turkey. They were Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Russia's Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.
According to Cavusoglu: "Today we launched a new trilateral
consultation process. Our goal is to discuss how we can contribute to
efforts towards a lasting political solution in Syria."
This is laughable. The United Nations has appointed several envoys --
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura -- to mediate a
political solution, and in the end they all resigned in disgust after
being made useful idiots by Bashar al-Assad. In neach case they
provided cover for al-Assad to continue his war crimes and genocide
targeting innocent Arab Sunnis, and also provided cover for al-Assad's
supporters in Russia and Iran, allowing them to make sanctimonious
statements while they support al-Assad's bloody slaughter. The UN has
recently appointed a new envoy, Geir Pedersen, who sounds to me like
all the others, and speaks the same nonsense.
All of these envoys say the same thing: "A military solution is
impossible. There has to be a political solution." The problem is
that Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have joined together, and have
brought about a military holocaust in Syria. Bashar al-Assad believes
that he is close to a total victory, and will never agree to any
political solution.
So now Qatar wants to take on the role of mediator. Qatar is a little
different from the envoys because it openly supports tne anti-Assad
Arab political opposition, while the UN envoys are supposedly neutral.
But Qatari officials apparently believe that they can use their
existing relationship with Russia to bring something about.
Russia's Vladimir Putin, of course, doesn't care how many Sunni Arabs
Bashar al-Assad beats, tortures, rapes or kills. Russia is supporting
al-Assad because it wants to retain control of its two military bases
in Syria, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase. When
al-Assad begged Putin for military help in 2015, Putin agreed to help,
and received control of the two military bases in return.
****
**** Ten years of war have turned an affluent Syria into a country in ruins
****
Ten years ago, Syria used to be a beautiful, affluent middle-class
country. Today, the entire country looks like a war zone, with
buildings destroyed everywhere, particularly schools, hospitals and
markets.
Of the 22 million people that lived in Syria before the war, about
half a million have been killed, and more than 12 million people have
been forced to flee their homes, either becoming refugees or displaced
people in their own country.
Today, Syria is an economic basket case, with massive poverty among
people who still live there, and among Syrians who live in refugee
camps in Lebanon and Turkey.
The Syrian currency, the Lira, has crashed. $10 used to give you 500
Syrian Lira. Now $10 is 40,000 Syrian Lira. Money-changers need carts
to carry their currency, in a scene reminiscent of the wheelbarrows of
money in Germany in the hyperinflation of the early 1920s.
Post-war discontent with corruption, spiralling food prices, a
collapsed currency, worsening power cuts and gasoline shortages have
aggravated hardships for the remaining citizens.
****
**** The remaining battleground in Idlib province
****
The war in Syria has become more or less static in the last year.
There are about 2.5 million Sunni Arabs in Idlib province, which is in
northwest Syria along the border with Turkey, and I had expected that
Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, would by this time
have found a way to exterminate many of the 2.5 million people, who
are mostly women and children. But Turkey has sent its own troops and
tanks into Idlib, and al-Assad's extermination process has been
slowed.
Al-Assad himself has been shown by defectors to be someone who gets
obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their
fingernails, or other forms of torture. (See "8-Feb-17 World View -- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad"
)
Most of the civilians in Idlib are women and children refugees from
other provinces, including Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa and Quneitra. In
each of the other provinces, al-Assad sent missiles into school
dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden with
metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.
Al-Assad's barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons have
specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill
as many women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier
than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking
women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by
missiles and gunfire. As if that wasn't enough, al-Assad was
supported by Russian warplanes.
In each case, international pressure forced al-Assad to allow hundreds
of thousands of civilians, mostly women and children, to escape to
Idlib province. The result is that about half the population in Idlib
is refugees from other provinces.
Bashar al-Assad repeatedly vowed to attack Idlib next, with Russian
support, and to exterminate all the Sunni Arab civilians. This threat
actually presented a huge threat to Turkey and even to Europe, as
those attacks would drive millions of refugees across the border into
Turkey, and possibly into Europe from there.
To block this, Turkey sent its own troops into Idlib, so that an
attack on Idlib would be an attack on Turkey. This has prevented the
expected extermination of Sunni Arabs in Idlib. But it has also
raised pressure on Turkey to end its "occupation" of Syrian territory.
****
**** Qatar's strategy in offering to mediate the Syrian war
****
From the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, Qatar, provided huge
financial, political and media support for opposition groups,
especially armed ones. However, this aid stopped in 2015 when Russia
intervened.
Qatar has for years had sharp differences with the other members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from
Qatar after a stormy meeting. One issue was Qatar's friendly
relationship with Iran,as well as Qatari support for two organizations
that Saudi Arabia and UAE consider to be terrorist organizations --
the Muslim Brotherhood and the Union of Muslim Scholars.
They papered over their differences in 2014, but the diffeences
exploded in June 2016, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations and imposed a sea, air
and land blockade on Qatar. Qatar is a very wealthy country and was
able to weather this blockade, but it lost influence in the Mideast.
There has been some softening of the blockade in recent months. That
change, combined with the presence of a new admiistration in the
United States, has led Qatar to change direction and reactivate its
diplomatic posture.
Having ended its aid to Syrian opposition groups in 2014, Qatar is now
returning to mediation in the Syria war, taking advantage of what it
hopes are its existing good relations with Russia and Iran.
****
**** Syrian war timeline
****
The following timeline lists the major events in the ten-year Syrian
war?
- March 2011 -- The first big protests against Assad’s rule that
began in Deraa in southern Syria spread across the country. Security
forces respond with arrests and shootings.
- August 2011 -- Al-Assad began his policy of ethnic cleansing and
genocide by attacking and cleansing the al-Ramel Palestinian refugee
camp in Latakia, forcing 10,000 people to flee for their lives.
Later, that region was repopulated by Iranian and Hezbollah Shias.
This was the launch of genocidal attacks on many Syrian cities. The
attack on the Palestinian camp was signficant because it
internationalized the war, and eventually caused thousands of young
Sunni males in 80 countries to travel to Syria to fight al-Assad,
eventually forming ISIS.
- April 30, 2012 -- Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a
televised speech committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and
fight on the side of al-Assad's army.
- May 2012 -- Syrian security forces stormed Aleppo University,
breaking down doors and using machine guns and rifles against
students. Al-Assad launched air raids on many cities and towns,
killing thousands. This began a policy of targeting schools,
hospitals, markets and residential neighborhoods, particularly
targeting women and children.
- December 2012 -- US officials confirm that Syria has the precursor
chemicals for deadly Sarin gas, and loaded the gas into bombs. Iraq's
president Saddam Hussein's forces killed 5,000 Kurds with a single
Sarin gas attack on Halabja in 1988. Barack Obama declared that use
of chemical weapons would be a "red line" that would provoke a
military response from the US.
- March 19, 2013 -- A Sarin gas attack killed 26.
- June 2013 -- Syria launched a Sarin gas attack on a densely
populated rebel-held Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus
killing hundreds of civilians, without triggering a U.S. military
response.
- August 21, 2013 -- A Sarin gas attack on the densely populated
Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus. Washington declares it
to be use of chemical weapons violating its red line, without
triggering a U.S. military response.
- January 2014 -- A jihadist group, later to be called ISIS, seized
territory across Syria and Iraq, and declared a caliphate.
- April 13, 2014 -- First reported use of chlorine gas by al-Assad
in barrel bombs targeting women and children in markets and
residential neighborhoods.
- September 2014 -- US begins air strikes in support of the Kurds
against ISIS
- May 2015 -- After suffering several major military defeats, and
with his army near total collapse, al-Assad announces that he's losing
the war.
- June 2015 -- Iran announces plans to deploy tens of thousands of
troops to Syria in support of al-Assad.
- September 2015 -- Russia joins the war on al-Assad's side,
deploying warplanes and giving military aid that, with the help of
Iran, swiftly turns the course of conflict against the rebels.
- December 2016 -- After massive slaughter of residents of Aleppo by
Syrian and Russian forces, al-Assad scores a "historic victory" in
Aleppo.
- February 2018 -- Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass
extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta
- April 2018 -- Donald Trump administration, allied with France and
Britain, launch a missile attack on Syria in retaliation for crossing
"red line" on use of chemical weapons. However, al-Assad continued to
use chemical weapons anyway, with impunity.
- May 2018 -- Civilians in Eastern Ghouta and Douma are allowed to
flee to Idlib province
- June 2018 -- Al-Assads begins massive slaughter in Daraa and
Quneitra provinces.
- July 2018 -- Civilians in Daraa and Quneitra provinces are allowed
to flee to Idlib province.
- August 2018 -- Al-Assad promised to slaughter all the 2.5 million
people at that time.
- October 2019 -- Trump administration announced withdrawal of
American troops. Turkey announced plan to invade Turkey to protect
civilians in Idlib, and to keep Kurds under control in northeastern
Syria.
- February 2020 -- Turkey sent tanks across border into Syria to
confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
Sources:
- Why has the Syrian war lasted 10 years? (BBC, 12-Mar-2021)
- Turkey, Russia, Qatar to push for political resolution in Syria (Reuters, 11-Mar-2021)
- ‘Turkey will defend Syria's territorial integrity’ (Anadolu, Turkey, 11-Mar-2021)
- Syria: A fractured state and a people displaced - counting the cost of a decade of war (Sky News, Australia, 15-Mar-2021)
- Qatar reactivates role in Syria amid hopes of regional influence (Arab Weekly, 26-Feb-2021)
- Egypt holds first meeting with Qatar since reconciliation deal (Arab Weekly, 28-Feb-2021)
- Qatar launches conservative media platform in US in soft power pursuit (Arab Weekly, 25-Feb-2021)
- Bashar al-Assad / Syrian president, wife test positive for coronavirus (AP, 11-Mar-2021)
- Qatar / QFFD, QRCS build medical capacity in northern Syria (The Peninsula Qatar, 7-Mar-2021)
- Yemeni government restores ties with Qatar after four years of boycott (Reuters, 7-Mar-2021)
- Syria's Idlib: What future for the rebel holdout? (AFP, 8-Mar-2021)
- Turkish military convoy enters Syria's Idlib (Mehr News, Iran, 11-Mar-2021)
- Local residents clash with militants in Syria’s Idlib (Tass, Moscow, 9-Mar-2021)
- Erdogan warns of military action in Syria, decries Russian strike (Al-Jazeera, 28-Oct-2020)
- Viewpoint: Why Turkey is flexing its muscles abroad (BBC, 16-Oct-2020)
- Turkey, Russia, Qatar push for unlikely new Syria peace track (Al-Monitor, 11-Mar-2021)
- Qatar will continue efforts to restore peace in Syria: FM (Qatar Tribune, 11-Mar-2021)
- Qatar, Russia, and Turkey announce new Syria peace initiative (New Arab, 11-Mar-2021)
- Timeline: Ten years of Syria conflict, from protest to war to economic decline (Reuters, 12-Mar-2021)
- Syria accused of covering up damage at Palestinian refugee camp (LA Times, 22-Aug-2011)
- Sergey Lavrov / Iran Deal, Syria Sanctions Lead Subjects on Top Russia Diplomat's Mideast Tour (Newsweek, 9-Mar-2021)
- As Biden Faces New Iran Crisis in Iraq, Syria Warns of 'Consequences' to U.S. Attacks (Newsweek, 3-Mar-2021)
- Syria's British first lady Asma al-Assad who shopped for £4,000 shoes while her country tipped into bloody violence 'faces war crimes prosecution in UK' (Daily Mail, London, 14-Mar-2021)
Related Articles:
- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean (26-Dec-2019)
- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates (22-Dec-2019)
- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border (19-Dec-2019)
- Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire agreement (18-Oct-2019)
- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib (28-Oct-2018)
- Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp (16-Aug-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qatar,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, Vladimir Putin,
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Geir Pedersen,
Idlib province, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Quneitra.
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Muslim Brotherhood, Union of Muslim Scholars.
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad, Aleppo University,
Sarin gas, chlorine, barrel bombs,
al-Ramel Palestinian refugee camp, Latakia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
