03-22-2021, 09:36 PM
** 22-Mar-2021 World View: Everything is a bubble?
I don't think that you actually care, but the following article
describes the analytical method for determining a bubble:
** WSJ's page one story on Bernanke's Princeton 'Bubble Laboratory' is almost incoherent
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e080518
The problem with Bitcoin is that it has no history. The 1929 crash
was entirely predictable because it had many decades of history. The
1987 false panic was not a crash, as could be proven by applying the
analytical method to decades of data.
But in the case of Bitcoin, all we can do is compare it to other
values that had no history, and Tulipomania and the South Sea Bubble
are the obvious choices. Without historical data, and with a
parabolically increasing value, the burden of proof is on the side of
proving that it isn't a bubble, but it obviously is.
Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Here's your problem, and why you can't think straight about this
> topic: everything is a bubble to you. You can't even differentiate
> value from a bubble, because your whimsical approach doesn't
> define what either is. Sorry, you don't get to just declare
> something is a bubble without any reasoning. Tell me something
> that ISN'T a bubble (for example, something that is increasing in
> price, just to make it a comparison) and why?
> I hope everyone notices the response to this, will yet again, be a
> nothing answer.
I don't think that you actually care, but the following article
describes the analytical method for determining a bubble:
** WSJ's page one story on Bernanke's Princeton 'Bubble Laboratory' is almost incoherent
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e080518
The problem with Bitcoin is that it has no history. The 1929 crash
was entirely predictable because it had many decades of history. The
1987 false panic was not a crash, as could be proven by applying the
analytical method to decades of data.
But in the case of Bitcoin, all we can do is compare it to other
values that had no history, and Tulipomania and the South Sea Bubble
are the obvious choices. Without historical data, and with a
parabolically increasing value, the burden of proof is on the side of
proving that it isn't a bubble, but it obviously is.
