04-10-2021, 09:09 PM
*** 11-Apr-21 World View -- Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military
****
![[Image: g210410b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210410b.jpg)
Burmese soldiers in Shan State after an attack by ethnic groups in 2019 (AFP)
An alliance of ethnic armies in Myanmar / Burma on Saturday attacked a
military police station in Shan State, killing at least 10 policemen.
The attackers were from an alliance that includes the Arakan Army, the
Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army. Normally, these ethnic groups oppose each other, and
occasionally fight each other, but this is the first time that they've
allied, in the face of the army coup, which makes this very
significant.
As we've been expecting, the Myanmar / Burma military crackdown on
peaceful civilian protesters, following the coup that replaced the
democratically elected government with a dictatorial military junta,
is rapidly turning into a full scale civil war, involving multiple
ethnic groups.
This situation is growing into a repeat of Burma's last generational
crisis war, an extremely bloody civil war (1948-1958) following
independence, and involving multiple ethnic groups, along with
intervention by the Chinese.
This attack on the police station outpost in Shan State seems to me to
have special significance, in view of the genocide and ethnic
cleansing of the ethnic Rohingyas in previous years.
****
**** Repeating the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas
****
Starting in 2011, Buddhists began attacking Muslim Rohingyas in
villages across Burma, particularly the 1.1 million ethnic Rohingyas
in Rakhine State. Mobs of Buddhists attacked Muslims, conducting
atrocities including torture and rape, killing hundreds and forcing
hundreds of thousands to leave their homes to flee from the attacks.
In some cases, the Buddhists burned down entire Rohingya villages to
the ground.
However, the most horrific Buddhist violence against the Rohingyas
began after August 25, 2017, when Rohingya insurgents carried out a
series of coordinated attacks against 30 Burma police outposts and an
army base. Using knives, some guns and homemade explosives they
killed at least a dozen Burmese security force members.
The army responded with a sweep of violence against Rohingyas, causing
thousands of them to flee their villages and head for the Bangladesh
border, where they hoped to cross and reach a refugee camp. The
Burmese army shot them as they were fleeing, including women and
children, killing dozens. The attack on the police posts was the
beginning of mass genocide and ethnic cleansing.
This is a standard pattern used by genocidal autocrats. I've
described how this works in detail in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook"
. Autocratic regimes use an isolated terrorist
incident as an excuse to conduct a massive overreaction against an
entire group. In America, the Democrats are using the January 6
incident to declare that all 74 million Trump supporters are racists,
white supremacists and terrorists, and are using that as an excuse for
massive censorship and extrajucicial arrests.
So in Myanmar, we now have a situation similar to the one on August
25, 2017, when Rohingyas attacked police outposts. Saturday's attack
by ethnic groups -- the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation
Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army -- could
well bring about a repeat of what happened to the Rohingyas.
We should know within the next few days.
The unifying of different ethnic groups is being described as highly
significant by analysts. Over the decades, since the last crisis war,
the Burmese military has been able to deal with the different ethnic
groups separately, and after the February 1 coup, the military
negotiated with each one to keep them out of the fighting. But now
it's clear that has failed, and we can expect all out war with the
ethnic groups.
These groups are on the border with China, and there are many
people of Chinese ancestry living in Shan State. So this may be
the trigger that leads to intervention by the Chinese, although
the Chinese will not intervene unless events force them to.
****
**** War with the Karen ethnic group on the Myanmar / Thailand border
****
As a separate issue, Burmese regime fighter jets have been dropping
bombs on ethnic Karens in territory controlled by the Karen National
Union (KNU), as we reported last week. The Karens are the largest
ethnic group in Burma. The bombing began on March 27 and has
continued almost every day. It was triggered by an attack by the KNU
on a military barracks outpost, killing 20.
Some 10,000 Karens have fled across the border into Thailand to escape
the violence. This is not new. In the 1990s, a war between the
preceding Burmese military junta and the Karens led to some 100,000
refugees in camps along the border between the two countries. This has
caused a political problem for the Thai government, which is also led
by a military junta that overthrew a democratically elected government
in 2014. (See the following: "23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites"
)
Thailand's last generational crisis war (the Cambodian Killing Fields
war) climaxed in 1979, so Thailand is in a generational Unraveling
era, with little chance of a new ethnic civil war at this time.
(Burma, of course, is well into a generational Crisis era.)
Therefore, Thailand's coup did not lead to civil war, but Burma's coup
is doing so.
So the thousands of refugees pouring into Thailand present a problem
for the Thai military junta, who basically are aligned with the
Burmese military junta. So even though Thai prime minister Prayuth
Chan-o-cha has assured that "human rights will be respected," the
result is that many of the Karen civilians fleeing violence by
crossing the border into Thailand are being pushed back into Myanmar
by the Thai police.
There are also refugees pouring into India and China.
****
**** Peaceful protests continue in cities across Myanmar, heading for catastrophe
****
There were peaceful protests in multiple cities across Myanmar on
Saturday, with large marches in Yangon and Mandalay.
This despite the fact that on Friday, 80 peaceful protesters were
killed by the army in random gunfire in the city of Bago, near Yangon.
The army had thought that escalating violence would cause the protests
to fizzle out, as they did in 2007, during Burma's generational
Unraveling era. But they're not going to fizzle out now.
News reports from Myanmar these days are just filled with more details
about the army slaughtering innocent unarmed civiians. Analysts say
that the solution is for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution,
which is hilariously laughable. Others say that the Association of
Southeast Nations (ASEAN) should hold a meeting, which is also
laughable. I heard one analyst say that the United States has to
intervene militarily to stop the carnage. That guy must have been
hopped up on some of the drugs currently pouring into the USA through
the open southern border.
Both Russia and China are supplying weapons to the Burmese junta, and
neither country would be willing to take any step to end the carnage.
So the bottom line is this: I cannot think of a scenario, nor have I
read or heard of a scenario, that will stop the violence in Myanmar /
Burma from escalating into a full-scale multi-ethnic civil war in the
next few days, weeks and months. Like a Greek tragedy, the characters
in this play are heading unstoppably into catastrophe. After that,
the only question is whether it will spread to other countries, and
whether it will be the trigger that leads to a new world war.
Sources:
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma,
Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, China, Russia,
Karen ethnic group, Karen National Union, KNU,
Shan State, Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army,
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
Aung Sang Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Rakhine State,
Bago, Yangon, Mandalay,
Association of Southeast Nations, ASEAN, Greek Tragedy
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military
- Repeating the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas
- War with the Karen ethnic group on the Myanmar / Thailand border
- Peaceful protests continue in cities across Myanmar, heading for catastrophe
****
**** Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military
****
Burmese soldiers in Shan State after an attack by ethnic groups in 2019 (AFP)
An alliance of ethnic armies in Myanmar / Burma on Saturday attacked a
military police station in Shan State, killing at least 10 policemen.
The attackers were from an alliance that includes the Arakan Army, the
Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army. Normally, these ethnic groups oppose each other, and
occasionally fight each other, but this is the first time that they've
allied, in the face of the army coup, which makes this very
significant.
As we've been expecting, the Myanmar / Burma military crackdown on
peaceful civilian protesters, following the coup that replaced the
democratically elected government with a dictatorial military junta,
is rapidly turning into a full scale civil war, involving multiple
ethnic groups.
This situation is growing into a repeat of Burma's last generational
crisis war, an extremely bloody civil war (1948-1958) following
independence, and involving multiple ethnic groups, along with
intervention by the Chinese.
This attack on the police station outpost in Shan State seems to me to
have special significance, in view of the genocide and ethnic
cleansing of the ethnic Rohingyas in previous years.
****
**** Repeating the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas
****
Starting in 2011, Buddhists began attacking Muslim Rohingyas in
villages across Burma, particularly the 1.1 million ethnic Rohingyas
in Rakhine State. Mobs of Buddhists attacked Muslims, conducting
atrocities including torture and rape, killing hundreds and forcing
hundreds of thousands to leave their homes to flee from the attacks.
In some cases, the Buddhists burned down entire Rohingya villages to
the ground.
However, the most horrific Buddhist violence against the Rohingyas
began after August 25, 2017, when Rohingya insurgents carried out a
series of coordinated attacks against 30 Burma police outposts and an
army base. Using knives, some guns and homemade explosives they
killed at least a dozen Burmese security force members.
The army responded with a sweep of violence against Rohingyas, causing
thousands of them to flee their villages and head for the Bangladesh
border, where they hoped to cross and reach a refugee camp. The
Burmese army shot them as they were fleeing, including women and
children, killing dozens. The attack on the police posts was the
beginning of mass genocide and ethnic cleansing.
This is a standard pattern used by genocidal autocrats. I've
described how this works in detail in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook"
. Autocratic regimes use an isolated terrorist
incident as an excuse to conduct a massive overreaction against an
entire group. In America, the Democrats are using the January 6
incident to declare that all 74 million Trump supporters are racists,
white supremacists and terrorists, and are using that as an excuse for
massive censorship and extrajucicial arrests.
So in Myanmar, we now have a situation similar to the one on August
25, 2017, when Rohingyas attacked police outposts. Saturday's attack
by ethnic groups -- the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation
Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army -- could
well bring about a repeat of what happened to the Rohingyas.
We should know within the next few days.
The unifying of different ethnic groups is being described as highly
significant by analysts. Over the decades, since the last crisis war,
the Burmese military has been able to deal with the different ethnic
groups separately, and after the February 1 coup, the military
negotiated with each one to keep them out of the fighting. But now
it's clear that has failed, and we can expect all out war with the
ethnic groups.
These groups are on the border with China, and there are many
people of Chinese ancestry living in Shan State. So this may be
the trigger that leads to intervention by the Chinese, although
the Chinese will not intervene unless events force them to.
****
**** War with the Karen ethnic group on the Myanmar / Thailand border
****
As a separate issue, Burmese regime fighter jets have been dropping
bombs on ethnic Karens in territory controlled by the Karen National
Union (KNU), as we reported last week. The Karens are the largest
ethnic group in Burma. The bombing began on March 27 and has
continued almost every day. It was triggered by an attack by the KNU
on a military barracks outpost, killing 20.
Some 10,000 Karens have fled across the border into Thailand to escape
the violence. This is not new. In the 1990s, a war between the
preceding Burmese military junta and the Karens led to some 100,000
refugees in camps along the border between the two countries. This has
caused a political problem for the Thai government, which is also led
by a military junta that overthrew a democratically elected government
in 2014. (See the following: "23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites"
)
Thailand's last generational crisis war (the Cambodian Killing Fields
war) climaxed in 1979, so Thailand is in a generational Unraveling
era, with little chance of a new ethnic civil war at this time.
(Burma, of course, is well into a generational Crisis era.)
Therefore, Thailand's coup did not lead to civil war, but Burma's coup
is doing so.
So the thousands of refugees pouring into Thailand present a problem
for the Thai military junta, who basically are aligned with the
Burmese military junta. So even though Thai prime minister Prayuth
Chan-o-cha has assured that "human rights will be respected," the
result is that many of the Karen civilians fleeing violence by
crossing the border into Thailand are being pushed back into Myanmar
by the Thai police.
There are also refugees pouring into India and China.
****
**** Peaceful protests continue in cities across Myanmar, heading for catastrophe
****
There were peaceful protests in multiple cities across Myanmar on
Saturday, with large marches in Yangon and Mandalay.
This despite the fact that on Friday, 80 peaceful protesters were
killed by the army in random gunfire in the city of Bago, near Yangon.
The army had thought that escalating violence would cause the protests
to fizzle out, as they did in 2007, during Burma's generational
Unraveling era. But they're not going to fizzle out now.
News reports from Myanmar these days are just filled with more details
about the army slaughtering innocent unarmed civiians. Analysts say
that the solution is for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution,
which is hilariously laughable. Others say that the Association of
Southeast Nations (ASEAN) should hold a meeting, which is also
laughable. I heard one analyst say that the United States has to
intervene militarily to stop the carnage. That guy must have been
hopped up on some of the drugs currently pouring into the USA through
the open southern border.
Both Russia and China are supplying weapons to the Burmese junta, and
neither country would be willing to take any step to end the carnage.
So the bottom line is this: I cannot think of a scenario, nor have I
read or heard of a scenario, that will stop the violence in Myanmar /
Burma from escalating into a full-scale multi-ethnic civil war in the
next few days, weeks and months. Like a Greek tragedy, the characters
in this play are heading unstoppably into catastrophe. After that,
the only question is whether it will spread to other countries, and
whether it will be the trigger that leads to a new world war.
Sources:
- 10 Myanmar police killed in attack by ethnic armies: Reports (Al-Jazeera, 10-Apr-2021)
- An Old War Is Rekindled On The Myanmar-Thailand Border (World Crunch, Le Monde, 10-Apr-2021)
- Existing conflicts with ethnic groups add fuel to the fire. (Foreign Policy, 8-Apr-2021)
- Myanmar's security forces kill 82 in Bago: report (Deutsche Welle, 10-Apr-2021)
- Myanmar Junta Kills Scores of Protesters in Bago, Decrees Death Penalty for 19 in Yangon (RFA, 9-Apr-2021)
Related articles:
- Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
- America and the standard Genocide Playbook (12-Jan-2021)
- Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
- Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma,
Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, China, Russia,
Karen ethnic group, Karen National Union, KNU,
Shan State, Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army,
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
Aung Sang Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Rakhine State,
Bago, Yangon, Mandalay,
Association of Southeast Nations, ASEAN, Greek Tragedy
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
