04-18-2021, 09:59 PM
*** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
****
![[Image: kerch2.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/kerch2.gif)
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.
Britain is reported to be sending two warships to the Black Sea, as
Russia continues its military buildup on the Ukraine border, and a
naval buildup in the Black Sea. Britain's announcement came when the
US backed out of plans to send ships to the Black Sea after being
warned by Russia to stay out.
Russia appears to be taking the next step in a plan that began with
its invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014, following a military buildup
on the border of Ukraine similar to the military buildup going on at
the current time. The invasion took place after Vladimir Putin
promised not to invade Ukraine.
During the course of that invasion, Russians in eastern Ukraine in
July 2014 shot down a passenger plane, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile. The Russians claimed that the US
shot down the plane to embarrass Putin. Russia lied about not
invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea. Putin lied about not
annexing Crimea, and then annexed Crimea.
In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the
Kerch Strait (see map above), said to be the longest bridge in Europe.
Russia used the bridge to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of
Mariupol and Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to
Ukraine. In November 2018, Russia completed the bridge, and opened
live fire for no reason on three Ukrainian vessels, wounding six
sailors, boarding and seizing the vessels. The sailors were
transferred indefinitely to a jail in Moscow.
The point of reviewing this history is to set the framework for
Russia's latest actions, and to show that pretty much everything
Russia claims is garbage. The typical Russian playbook is to commit
some atrocity and then blame the United States or Nato, such as when
the Russians shot down the MH17 passenger plane.
In the current scene, Russian analysts are claiming that the military
buildup is because the United States wants Ukraine to join Nato,
and because Ukraine is planning to invade Russia. Over the years,
I've dealt with dozens of Russian trolls excusing Russia atrocities
with some of the most ridiculous excuses, and this is typical.
The problem is that we have absolutely no idea what the Russians
are planning.
Whatever military action Russia is planning will probably take place
in early or mid-May, after the snows have melted and the fields have
dried and are able to hold tanks. We'll have to wait until then to
see which of these options Russia will pursue.
****
**** Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea
****
Coinciding with the huge build-up of over 100,000 Russian troops near
the border with Ukraine, Russia is bolstering its naval fleet in the
Black Sea.
Two Russian warships from Russia's Baltic fleet, accompanied by 15
smaller vessels, transited from the Mediterranean Sea through the
Bosphorus to the Black Sea on Saturday. The Bosphorus is the
waterway, controlled by Turkey, connecting the Mediterranean Sea with
the Black Sea.
This comes after Russia announced that Russia is sending 15 naval
vessels from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. These vessels
must travel up the Volga River, through a canal built in 1952 with 13
locks, to the Don River, and then to the Sea of Azov and the Black
Sea.
So Russia's naval buildup is large and expensive, just like its
ground buildup.
****
**** Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down
****
![[Image: g210418b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210418b.jpg)
Map of Russian deployment around Ukraine (RFE/RL)
There are a number of news stories from multiple international sources
describing this situation, and they seem to boil down to the
following:
The US was planning to send two warships into the Black Sea, for a
long-scheduled routine mission. However, Russia warned the
United States on Tuesday (4/13) against sending the warships, "for
their own good." Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov
was quoted by Russian news agencies as follows:
<QUOTE>"There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be
doing near our shores. We warn the United States that it will be
better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea
coast. It will be for their own good."<END QUOTE>
Also on Tuesday, president Joe Biden phoned Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, after which the US backed down on the plans to send
warships to the Black Sea. US officials described the reason was to
avoid needlessly escalating the situation, and a desire not to provoke
Moscow during a delicate time.
However on Sunday, British media is reporting that a flotilla of ships
from the Royal Navy's carrier task group in the Mediterranean,
including a Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an
anti-submarine Type 23 frigate, will travel to the Black Sea in May.
The deployment is aimed at showing solidarity with Ukraine and
Britain's NATO allies.
I heard one analyst make the following speculation about what
happened: Perhaps Biden fears a coordinated attack next month on
Ukraine by Russia simultaneously with a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and
so Biden did not want American warships to be trapped in the Black
Sea.
****
**** Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border
****
If major hostilities break out again in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine),
then the situation will have changed a lot since the last war in 2014,
since both Ukraine's and Russia's militaries are better prepared.
Ukraine has significantly boosted defense spending since 2014, has
U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles in its arsenal, and has troop
numbers of nearly 250,000 compared to 168,000 in 2013.
In recent weeks, Russia has unexpectedly boosted its troop presence
near the conflict zone in Ukraine. Analysis of open-source material
has identified tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, long-range
artillery, rocket launchers, and Iskander short-range ballistic
missile systems among the materiel that has been moved to the area
since mid-March. U.S. and NATO officials have called it the largest
military buildup in the region since Russia’s surprise occupation of
Crimea and the start of fighting in the Donbas, which has killed more
than 13,000 combatants and civilians since April 2014.
So what are Russia's plans? We probably won't know until early to
mid-May.
****
**** Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic
****
This is a (probably) unrelated story, but it's being described as a
major diplomatic development between Russia and Europe.
The Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats on Saturday. On
Sunday, Russia retaliated by announcing that 20 diplomats from the
Czech Republic will be expelled. At the time of the explosion, it was
assumed to be an accident, but through detective work, Czech officials
now says that it was Russian sabotage.
Czech Police have identified two suspects in connection with the blast
- Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepigov - who are also accused of
using the chemical nerve agent weapon Novichok to murder Sergei
Skripal, a former double Russian agent, and his daughter Yulia. The
murder took place in the UK in Salisbury in 2018.
Sources:
Related Sources:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea,
Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Vladimir Putin, Kerch Strait,
Mariupol, Berdyansk, Moldova, Transnistria,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
Turkey, Bosphorus, Baltic Fleet,
Caspian Sea, Volga River, Don River,
Sergei Ryabkov, Royal Navy,
Czech Republic, Alexander Mishkin, Anatoly Chepigov,
Novichok, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
- Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea
- Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down
- Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border
- Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic
****
**** Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
****
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.
Britain is reported to be sending two warships to the Black Sea, as
Russia continues its military buildup on the Ukraine border, and a
naval buildup in the Black Sea. Britain's announcement came when the
US backed out of plans to send ships to the Black Sea after being
warned by Russia to stay out.
Russia appears to be taking the next step in a plan that began with
its invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014, following a military buildup
on the border of Ukraine similar to the military buildup going on at
the current time. The invasion took place after Vladimir Putin
promised not to invade Ukraine.
During the course of that invasion, Russians in eastern Ukraine in
July 2014 shot down a passenger plane, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile. The Russians claimed that the US
shot down the plane to embarrass Putin. Russia lied about not
invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea. Putin lied about not
annexing Crimea, and then annexed Crimea.
In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the
Kerch Strait (see map above), said to be the longest bridge in Europe.
Russia used the bridge to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of
Mariupol and Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to
Ukraine. In November 2018, Russia completed the bridge, and opened
live fire for no reason on three Ukrainian vessels, wounding six
sailors, boarding and seizing the vessels. The sailors were
transferred indefinitely to a jail in Moscow.
The point of reviewing this history is to set the framework for
Russia's latest actions, and to show that pretty much everything
Russia claims is garbage. The typical Russian playbook is to commit
some atrocity and then blame the United States or Nato, such as when
the Russians shot down the MH17 passenger plane.
In the current scene, Russian analysts are claiming that the military
buildup is because the United States wants Ukraine to join Nato,
and because Ukraine is planning to invade Russia. Over the years,
I've dealt with dozens of Russian trolls excusing Russia atrocities
with some of the most ridiculous excuses, and this is typical.
The problem is that we have absolutely no idea what the Russians
are planning.
- The super-optimistic Pollyannaish view is that
Putin is just trying to send a message to the west, and has no
plans for military engagement.
- A more cynical view is that Russia has no military plans,
but intends to use the invasion threat to blackmail Ukraine, Nato
and the West to gain some diplomatic advantage.
- At the other end of the spectrum is the view that the Russians
plan a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, possibly extending as far as
Moldova and its pro-Russian breakaway Transnistria, which lies along
Ukraine's southwest border.
- The intermediate view is that the Russians are planning to attack
and occupy the seaports at Mariupol and Berdyansk, and then continue
to move west in order to create a land bridge between Russia and
occupied Crimea, and take control of the entire Sea of Azov.
Whatever military action Russia is planning will probably take place
in early or mid-May, after the snows have melted and the fields have
dried and are able to hold tanks. We'll have to wait until then to
see which of these options Russia will pursue.
****
**** Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea
****
Coinciding with the huge build-up of over 100,000 Russian troops near
the border with Ukraine, Russia is bolstering its naval fleet in the
Black Sea.
Two Russian warships from Russia's Baltic fleet, accompanied by 15
smaller vessels, transited from the Mediterranean Sea through the
Bosphorus to the Black Sea on Saturday. The Bosphorus is the
waterway, controlled by Turkey, connecting the Mediterranean Sea with
the Black Sea.
This comes after Russia announced that Russia is sending 15 naval
vessels from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. These vessels
must travel up the Volga River, through a canal built in 1952 with 13
locks, to the Don River, and then to the Sea of Azov and the Black
Sea.
So Russia's naval buildup is large and expensive, just like its
ground buildup.
****
**** Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down
****
Map of Russian deployment around Ukraine (RFE/RL)
There are a number of news stories from multiple international sources
describing this situation, and they seem to boil down to the
following:
The US was planning to send two warships into the Black Sea, for a
long-scheduled routine mission. However, Russia warned the
United States on Tuesday (4/13) against sending the warships, "for
their own good." Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov
was quoted by Russian news agencies as follows:
<QUOTE>"There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be
doing near our shores. We warn the United States that it will be
better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea
coast. It will be for their own good."<END QUOTE>
Also on Tuesday, president Joe Biden phoned Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, after which the US backed down on the plans to send
warships to the Black Sea. US officials described the reason was to
avoid needlessly escalating the situation, and a desire not to provoke
Moscow during a delicate time.
However on Sunday, British media is reporting that a flotilla of ships
from the Royal Navy's carrier task group in the Mediterranean,
including a Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an
anti-submarine Type 23 frigate, will travel to the Black Sea in May.
The deployment is aimed at showing solidarity with Ukraine and
Britain's NATO allies.
I heard one analyst make the following speculation about what
happened: Perhaps Biden fears a coordinated attack next month on
Ukraine by Russia simultaneously with a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and
so Biden did not want American warships to be trapped in the Black
Sea.
****
**** Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border
****
If major hostilities break out again in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine),
then the situation will have changed a lot since the last war in 2014,
since both Ukraine's and Russia's militaries are better prepared.
Ukraine has significantly boosted defense spending since 2014, has
U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles in its arsenal, and has troop
numbers of nearly 250,000 compared to 168,000 in 2013.
In recent weeks, Russia has unexpectedly boosted its troop presence
near the conflict zone in Ukraine. Analysis of open-source material
has identified tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, long-range
artillery, rocket launchers, and Iskander short-range ballistic
missile systems among the materiel that has been moved to the area
since mid-March. U.S. and NATO officials have called it the largest
military buildup in the region since Russia’s surprise occupation of
Crimea and the start of fighting in the Donbas, which has killed more
than 13,000 combatants and civilians since April 2014.
So what are Russia's plans? We probably won't know until early to
mid-May.
****
**** Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic
****
This is a (probably) unrelated story, but it's being described as a
major diplomatic development between Russia and Europe.
The Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats on Saturday. On
Sunday, Russia retaliated by announcing that 20 diplomats from the
Czech Republic will be expelled. At the time of the explosion, it was
assumed to be an accident, but through detective work, Czech officials
now says that it was Russian sabotage.
Czech Police have identified two suspects in connection with the blast
- Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepigov - who are also accused of
using the chemical nerve agent weapon Novichok to murder Sergei
Skripal, a former double Russian agent, and his daughter Yulia. The
murder took place in the UK in Salisbury in 2018.
Sources:
- Russian Military Buildup Raises Tensions, Increases Risk Of Broader Conflict Over Ukraine – Analysis (RFE/RL, 18-Apr-2021)
- Germany, France, Ukraine urge Russia to withdraw troops (Deutsche-Welle, 16-Apr-2021)
- Macron urges 'clear red lines' on Russia amid tension at Ukraine border (Radio France International, 17-Apr-2021)
- Russia warns U.S. to stay away for its 'own good' as Ukraine standoff intensifies (CBS News, 13-Apr-2021)
- U.S. drops plans to send destroyers into the Black Sea due to concerns over Russia (Politico, 15-Apr-2021)
- UK warships to sail for Black Sea in May as Ukraine-Russia tensions rise- Sunday Times (Reuters, 18-Apr-2021)
- Russia beefs up warship presence in Black Sea as Ukraine tensions simmer (Reuters, 17-Apr-2021)
- Ukraine Accuses Russia of Shutting Off Black Sea Access, Harassing Ships (Moscow Times, 16-Apr-2021)
- Growing Russia-Ukraine Tensions: A Timeline (AFP, 13-Apr-2021)
- Russian Warships Stage Black Sea Drills Ahead of U.S. Arrivals (Moscow Times, 14-Apr-2021)
- Ukraine Reinforces Moldova Border As Tensions With Russia Continue (Balkan Insight, 16-Apr-2021)
- Over 103,000 Russian troops currently stationed near border with Ukraine (Ukrinform, Ukraine, 17-Apr-2021)
- Russia Ukraine conflict: Fact-checking Russian TV's Ukraine claims (BBC, 18-Apr-2021)
- Biden's blinking red lights: Taiwan, Ukraine and Iran (Axios, 18-Apr-2021)
- Ukraine-Turkey cooperation has its limits - Turkey cannot extend the same support to Ukraine it has given to Azerbaijan. (Al-Jazeera, 18-Apr-2021)
- Felgenhauer / Moscow Angered and Bewildered by Biden’s Summit Proposal Followed by Sanctions (Jamestown, 15-Apr-2021)
- Goble / Moscow Moving 15 Warships From Caspian Sea to Waters off Ukraine (Jamestown, 13-Apr-2021)
- Russia expels Czech diplomats over explosion row (BBC, 18-Apr-2021)
Related Sources:
- Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov (18-Oct-2018)
- Russia's actions in Sea of Azov raise fears of another invasion of Ukraine (07-Jul-2018)
- Ukraine seizes Russian ship in Sea of Azov in retaliation for Kerch Strait blockade (06-Apr-2018)
- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
- BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion (19-Sep-2014)
- Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine (15-Aug-2014)
- UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea,
Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Vladimir Putin, Kerch Strait,
Mariupol, Berdyansk, Moldova, Transnistria,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
Turkey, Bosphorus, Baltic Fleet,
Caspian Sea, Volga River, Don River,
Sergei Ryabkov, Royal Navy,
Czech Republic, Alexander Mishkin, Anatoly Chepigov,
Novichok, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
