04-29-2021, 08:53 AM
** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Signposts Of The End
99% of analyses from mainstream economists are total garbage, as
proven by the fact that they almost always turn out wrong or, at best,
made no forecasts that are more accurate than the ones you can get by
flipping a coin.
In particular, I've been listening to an unbelievable cacophony of
nonsense about inflation. In the last couple of days I've heard
warnings of the coming round of super-inflation that would match the
1970s. Where do they get these so-called "experts," who are more
idiots than experts. People in the 1970s were survivors of the Great
Depression, so they can't be compared to people today, but mainstream
economists are too stupid to grasp that.
So it was interesting today to read an article of economic analysis
that actually made sense:
"Lulled Into Complacency" - Signposts Of The End Are Everywhere
Authored by Eric Hickman, president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc.,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled...everywhere
This article analyzes several economic trends back to 1900. It even
gets the Law of Reversion of the Mean right for P/E ratios, although
the text deftly avoids scaring people by mentioning that the long-term
average is 14, but you can see it right from their graph:
![[Image: ba6eabab7dfb152210e144471ca8f854.png]](https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ba6eabab7dfb152210e144471ca8f854.png)
This article goes far beyond P/E ratios to numerous other economic
analyses. It's not a full-scale generational analysis, but it's the
closest I've seen.
99% of analyses from mainstream economists are total garbage, as
proven by the fact that they almost always turn out wrong or, at best,
made no forecasts that are more accurate than the ones you can get by
flipping a coin.
In particular, I've been listening to an unbelievable cacophony of
nonsense about inflation. In the last couple of days I've heard
warnings of the coming round of super-inflation that would match the
1970s. Where do they get these so-called "experts," who are more
idiots than experts. People in the 1970s were survivors of the Great
Depression, so they can't be compared to people today, but mainstream
economists are too stupid to grasp that.
So it was interesting today to read an article of economic analysis
that actually made sense:
"Lulled Into Complacency" - Signposts Of The End Are Everywhere
Authored by Eric Hickman, president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc.,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled...everywhere
This article analyzes several economic trends back to 1900. It even
gets the Law of Reversion of the Mean right for P/E ratios, although
the text deftly avoids scaring people by mentioning that the long-term
average is 14, but you can see it right from their graph:
- S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) - 150.2 years,
1/31/1871 - 04/16/2021, monthly data points
This article goes far beyond P/E ratios to numerous other economic
analyses. It's not a full-scale generational analysis, but it's the
closest I've seen.
