04-29-2021, 08:57 AM
** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey's core national national identity
This is certainly convoluted logic. There is no principle in
Genertional Dynamics that supports the logic that "It's a crisis era,
and Turkey won't side with Russia, therefore the only possible outcome
is that Turkey sides with China." There are many other possible
outcomes that you haven't considered, including a civil war within
Turkey itself.
You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be
re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I
and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities,
such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or
a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast.
The Turkish people came from Central Asia, just as Americans came from
England. The Turkish people could never turn away from the Central
Asians, any more than Americans could turn away from the British. So
the Turks will never side with China against the Uighurs and Kazakhs.
It's much more than a "sensitive issue." It's the core of their
national identity. That stuff about hoping to "get a piece of Central
Asia" as a reward for siding with China is utter nonsense.
As for recognizing the Armenian genocide, that will generate domestic
turmoil, but it will be forgotten soon and won't have any effect on
the core issues for Turkey. The Turkish people have no core national
interests in a war with Western Europe or America.
DaKardii Wrote:> If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that
> Turkey will be siding with China in the upcoming war.
> The Turks have a near-genocidal hatred for the Armenians, as well
> as the Kurds. Both the Armenians and the Kurds are Russian
> allies. Meanwhile, Turkey is in a crisis era. This means that it
> won't be on the same side as Armenia, the Kurds, or Russia. And we
> already know that (again, assuming GD is correct) Russia will be
> siding with the US, because Russia is allied with India and India
> will be fighting China. At that point, the only possible outcome
> is that Turkey sides with China.
> This will happen despite China's genocidal policies towards
> the Uighurs and the Kazakhs. Sure, the Turks consider the genocide
> in Xinjiang to be a sensitive issue. But they won't be in any
> position to challenge China's ambitions in Central Asia once they
> end up in a crisis war against Russia. Instead they will have to
> focus on defeating Russia and its allies, while hoping that they
> get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with
> China.
This is certainly convoluted logic. There is no principle in
Genertional Dynamics that supports the logic that "It's a crisis era,
and Turkey won't side with Russia, therefore the only possible outcome
is that Turkey sides with China." There are many other possible
outcomes that you haven't considered, including a civil war within
Turkey itself.
You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be
re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I
and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities,
such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or
a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast.
The Turkish people came from Central Asia, just as Americans came from
England. The Turkish people could never turn away from the Central
Asians, any more than Americans could turn away from the British. So
the Turks will never side with China against the Uighurs and Kazakhs.
It's much more than a "sensitive issue." It's the core of their
national identity. That stuff about hoping to "get a piece of Central
Asia" as a reward for siding with China is utter nonsense.
As for recognizing the Armenian genocide, that will generate domestic
turmoil, but it will be forgotten soon and won't have any effect on
the core issues for Turkey. The Turkish people have no core national
interests in a war with Western Europe or America.
