05-02-2021, 09:46 PM
*** 3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
****
![[Image: g210502b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210502b.jpg)
Ironically, some crockery survives an enormous blast that reduced homes to rubble near the Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border (BBC)
For years since the end of the bloody Tajikistan civil war (1992-97),
there have been border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but
they've all been isolated incidents. But in the last few weeks, the
Tajik army has been mobilizing along a long section of the border, for
the first time. The border is 971 kilometers long, of which 471 km
are disputed.
At least 31 people have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been
evacuated from their homes due to the worst violence in decades
between Kyrgyz and Tajik army forces. Entire villages on both sides
have been burned down. On Sunday, the two governments agreed to a
ceasefire, but it's not clear that the people on the ground agree.
Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan belong to Russia's Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Russia has military bases in both
countries, so Russia would like to see the conflict settled
peacefully.
The borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were set up in the 1920s
by Josef Stalin, making them part of the Soviet Union. Stalin had no
concern for ethnic, demographic, and tribal considerations when he set
up those boundaries. He was only interested in commericial benefits.
And the boundaries didn't matter, since both countries were part of
the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991,
suddenly the boundaries mattered.
The boundaries were never clearly defined, and there have been calls
over the years to officially mark the boundaries. Of course, this
would bring any border disagreements into sharp focus, so this project
hasn't been pursued. But recently, the government of Kyrgyzstan
announced that it would like to complete border demarcations between
the countries, and to build a reservoir along the river that supplies
water to both countries. These announcements caused the Tajiks
to panic, and led to the current border clashes.
****
**** Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal
****
The US and Nato began withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan on May
1, with the withdrawal to be completed on September 11, on the 20th
anniversary of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks. The Taliban had promised
to coexist peacefully with the Afghan government provided that the US
withdrawal was fully completed by May 1, as agreed with the Donald
Trump administration early last year. But the Taliban now say that
the US has violated the agreement, so they're free to attack anyone
they want. Joe Biden has said that the the September 11 completion
date for the withdrawal is absolute, not conditions based, so the
Taliban know that they can just go ahead and attack.
On Friday, 30 people were killed when a car bomb exploded near a guest
house where high school students were staying, in preparation for
university entrance exams. Dozens of people were hurt. Witnesses
described roofs collapsing and victims being trapped under the debris.
In the last two days alone, there have been dozens of new
casualties, from clashes between Afghan forces and the Taliban.
Once the Americans leave, there will be nothing preventing the
clashes from escalating.
Reports indicate that the people of Kabul are feeling increasingly
anxious, particularly about girls' education, which the Taliban have
promised to abolish. Friday's car bombing may have been designed to
target girls' education.
****
**** US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability
****
The withdrawal of US and Nato troops from Afghanistan threatens more
than just the stability of Afghanistan. It threatens new kinds of
instability in the entire Central Asia region. The countries in the
region are concerned that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan
will create the same regional instability that the American withdrawal
from Iraq did in 2010.
The heads of the countries in Russia's Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) have been meeting to discuss this precise concern.
In fact, villagers in Tajikistan, along the Afghanistan border, are
being told to be prepared "to take up arms," in the words of a
provincial governor:
<QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence
departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border
areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In
fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation
dictates."<END QUOTE>
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not
surprising at all. Both Afghanistan (1991-96) and Tajikistan
(1992-97) had extremely bloody ethnic civil wars during the 1990s.
In Afghanistan, the war was between the Pashtuns in the south versus
the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities,
torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth
that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family
members, so they will be looking for revenge.
It's been over 20 years since those civil wars ended, so the region is
in a generational Awakening era, with new nationalistic generations
having grown up since then, and having little fear of a new civil war.
It's way too early for a major new war, but as typically happens,
there will be periods of bloodshed separated by periods of ceasefire,
with each bloodshed period worse than the previous one.
Furthermore, new terrorist groups with allegiance to al-Qaeda
or ISIS have been springing up in Afghanistan, but have been
kept under control with the help of American forces. These groups
will be encouraged to grow again, with the departure of the Americans.
In 2009, I told readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley
(or Ferghana Valley), in central Asia, because it was going to become
increasingly important in world affairs. The Fergana Valley sits at
the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and is a
hotbed of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda. ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)"
)
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan will encourage these clashes.
That may be why there have been reports that the Biden administration
has been talking to the government of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to
reposition the US forces leaving Afghanistan in abandoned American
military bases in those two countries. American forces had occupied
those bases between 2001 and 2014, before the host countries demanded
that the Americans leave.
Little is known publicly about these negotiations, but it would be
ironic if the withdrawal of American forces from the "forever war" in
Afghanistan led to American forces becoming involved a "forever war"
in Central Asia and the Fergana Valley.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
Fergana Valley, Ferghana Valley,
China, Russia, Josef Stalin, Soviet Union,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks,
Uzbeks, Northern Alliance
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
- Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal
- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability
****
**** Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
****
Ironically, some crockery survives an enormous blast that reduced homes to rubble near the Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border (BBC)
For years since the end of the bloody Tajikistan civil war (1992-97),
there have been border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but
they've all been isolated incidents. But in the last few weeks, the
Tajik army has been mobilizing along a long section of the border, for
the first time. The border is 971 kilometers long, of which 471 km
are disputed.
At least 31 people have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been
evacuated from their homes due to the worst violence in decades
between Kyrgyz and Tajik army forces. Entire villages on both sides
have been burned down. On Sunday, the two governments agreed to a
ceasefire, but it's not clear that the people on the ground agree.
Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan belong to Russia's Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Russia has military bases in both
countries, so Russia would like to see the conflict settled
peacefully.
The borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were set up in the 1920s
by Josef Stalin, making them part of the Soviet Union. Stalin had no
concern for ethnic, demographic, and tribal considerations when he set
up those boundaries. He was only interested in commericial benefits.
And the boundaries didn't matter, since both countries were part of
the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991,
suddenly the boundaries mattered.
The boundaries were never clearly defined, and there have been calls
over the years to officially mark the boundaries. Of course, this
would bring any border disagreements into sharp focus, so this project
hasn't been pursued. But recently, the government of Kyrgyzstan
announced that it would like to complete border demarcations between
the countries, and to build a reservoir along the river that supplies
water to both countries. These announcements caused the Tajiks
to panic, and led to the current border clashes.
****
**** Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal
****
The US and Nato began withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan on May
1, with the withdrawal to be completed on September 11, on the 20th
anniversary of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks. The Taliban had promised
to coexist peacefully with the Afghan government provided that the US
withdrawal was fully completed by May 1, as agreed with the Donald
Trump administration early last year. But the Taliban now say that
the US has violated the agreement, so they're free to attack anyone
they want. Joe Biden has said that the the September 11 completion
date for the withdrawal is absolute, not conditions based, so the
Taliban know that they can just go ahead and attack.
On Friday, 30 people were killed when a car bomb exploded near a guest
house where high school students were staying, in preparation for
university entrance exams. Dozens of people were hurt. Witnesses
described roofs collapsing and victims being trapped under the debris.
In the last two days alone, there have been dozens of new
casualties, from clashes between Afghan forces and the Taliban.
Once the Americans leave, there will be nothing preventing the
clashes from escalating.
Reports indicate that the people of Kabul are feeling increasingly
anxious, particularly about girls' education, which the Taliban have
promised to abolish. Friday's car bombing may have been designed to
target girls' education.
****
**** US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability
****
The withdrawal of US and Nato troops from Afghanistan threatens more
than just the stability of Afghanistan. It threatens new kinds of
instability in the entire Central Asia region. The countries in the
region are concerned that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan
will create the same regional instability that the American withdrawal
from Iraq did in 2010.
The heads of the countries in Russia's Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) have been meeting to discuss this precise concern.
In fact, villagers in Tajikistan, along the Afghanistan border, are
being told to be prepared "to take up arms," in the words of a
provincial governor:
<QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence
departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border
areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In
fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation
dictates."<END QUOTE>
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not
surprising at all. Both Afghanistan (1991-96) and Tajikistan
(1992-97) had extremely bloody ethnic civil wars during the 1990s.
In Afghanistan, the war was between the Pashtuns in the south versus
the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities,
torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth
that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family
members, so they will be looking for revenge.
It's been over 20 years since those civil wars ended, so the region is
in a generational Awakening era, with new nationalistic generations
having grown up since then, and having little fear of a new civil war.
It's way too early for a major new war, but as typically happens,
there will be periods of bloodshed separated by periods of ceasefire,
with each bloodshed period worse than the previous one.
Furthermore, new terrorist groups with allegiance to al-Qaeda
or ISIS have been springing up in Afghanistan, but have been
kept under control with the help of American forces. These groups
will be encouraged to grow again, with the departure of the Americans.
In 2009, I told readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley
(or Ferghana Valley), in central Asia, because it was going to become
increasingly important in world affairs. The Fergana Valley sits at
the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and is a
hotbed of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda. ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)"
)
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan will encourage these clashes.
That may be why there have been reports that the Biden administration
has been talking to the government of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to
reposition the US forces leaving Afghanistan in abandoned American
military bases in those two countries. American forces had occupied
those bases between 2001 and 2014, before the host countries demanded
that the Americans leave.
Little is known publicly about these negotiations, but it would be
ironic if the withdrawal of American forces from the "forever war" in
Afghanistan led to American forces becoming involved a "forever war"
in Central Asia and the Fergana Valley.
Sources:
- Afghanistan car bomb kills 30 at guesthouse in Logar province (BBC, 30-Apr-2021)
- Will Central Asia Host U.S. Military Forces Once Again? (RFE/RL, 23-Apr-2021)
- Local Tajiks On Afghan Border Trained To Defend Against 'Taliban Attack' (RFE/RL, 9-Mar-2021)
- Deadly fighting on Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border kills at least 31 (BBC, 30-Apr-2021)
- Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan: Officials talk peace, but popular moods still raw (EurasiaNet, 2-May-2021)
- Will Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan go to a full-scale war? (Video) (Al-Jazeera, 2-May-2021)
- Kyrgyzstan says ceasefire with Tajikistan holding after clashes (Al-Jazeera, 2-May-2021)
- Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan agree to cease-fire to end deadly clashes (AFP, 2-May-2021)
- Asia Pacific - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan agree ceasefire after border clashes (Reuters, 1-May-2021)
- Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan agree new ceasefire after border clashes (Al-Jazeera, 1-May-2021)
- No Plans To Swap Volatile Vorukh Exclave For Kyrgyz Land, Tajik President Tells Residents (RFE/RL, 9-Apr-2021)
- The long echo of Tajikistan’s civil war (Open Democracy, 23-Jun-2017)
- Tajikistan's Civil War: A Nightmare The Government Won't Let Its People Forget (RFE/RL, 23-Jun-2017)
- Tajikistan Civil War (Global Security, 1999)
- U.S. commander warns against attacks on troops in Afghanistan as deadline passes (Reuters, 1-May-2021)
- Taliban, Afghan forces clash as US hands over base (France24, 2-May-2021)
Related Articles:
- High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal (15-Apr-2021)
- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan (06-Dec-2016)
- China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia (05-Aug-2016)
- Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan (08-May-2015)
- Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (02-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
Fergana Valley, Ferghana Valley,
China, Russia, Josef Stalin, Soviet Union,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks,
Uzbeks, Northern Alliance
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
