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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 26-May-21 World View -- The aftermath of the Israel - Gaza war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • The Gaza-Israel war by the numbers
  • What did the Gaza Palestinians accomplish? International attention
  • What did the Israelis accomplish? Mowing the lawn
  • The Biden Administration plans
  • The future of the Mideast

****
**** The Gaza-Israel war by the numbers
****


[Image: g210525b.jpg]
Over $300,000 in gold shaped as nails and hidden in wooden pallets. Hamas tried to smuggle the gold into the West Bank to fund terror activity. (Jerusalem Post)

The worst possible outcome of the recent war -- that it would
spiral into a full-scale regional war -- did not happen.

The best possible outcome of the recent war -- that it would settle
the Israel-Palestinian dispute once and for all -- did not happen and
could not possibly happen.

The 11 day conflict ended with a ceasefire on Friday, May 21, at 2
am. Nobody believes that there won't be another war soon.

Hamas fired 4,300 rockets from Gaza into Israel during the conflict,
killing two children and six adults in Israel.

Israel fired thousands of missiles into Gaza during the conflict,
killing 66 children and 248 adults.

Gaza was devastated by the war. More than 100,000 people lost
their homes. Water and sewer systems were destroyed, so there's
no water or sanitation. There is little electricity, and many
hospitals were destroyed.

****
**** What did the Gaza Palestinians accomplish? International attention
****


If you listen to Palestinians interviewed on tv, then you hear them
say that the deaths and destruction in Gaza were worth it because
those deaths have generated international outrage at Israel. There
have been international anti-Israel riots and demonstrations in cities
around the world. There have been calls for boycotts of Israeli
goods.

In a way, this is a longing for a return to the 2000s decade, when the
Palestinian issue was front page news around the world almost every
day. Starting around ten years ago, Palestinian spokesmen began
complaining that they had been completely forgotten by the
international community because of other international issues, such as
the wars in Ukraine and Syria. One of the motivations for starting
the 2014 summer war with Israel is thought by some to be an attempt to
get back on the front pages. And now, the Palestinians themselves
seem to be saying the same thing.

Some Arab writers are saying the same thing in different ways.

German-Egyptian Intellectual Dr. Hamed Abdel-Samad said the
following in an interview:

<QUOTE>"Hamas has turned the Palestinians into beggars.
Where did all the money go? I would like Fatah and Hamas to
explain to the Palestinians where all this money went? [Imagine]
what could have been done with it.

Why wasn't it invested in good education, instead of making
children TV shows that teach them martyrdom and suicide? Why do
all the leaders of Fatah have villas, palaces, and a lot of money?
They stole from their people and did not invest in their freedom,
in their educations, and in their self confidence. They left their
people only with the choice between martyrdom or begging for
money."<END QUOTE>


Saudi journalists are even more harshly critical of the actions of the
Gaza Palestinians, directly connecting the actions of Hamas to the
agenda of the Iranians, who are supplying Hamas with the rockets that
they've been launching at Israel.

As the war began, Saudi journalist Muhammad Aal Al-Sheikh tweeted:

<QUOTE>"I suspect that the move of those Palestinian factions
that are agents of the Persians was carried out on orders from
Iran, so as to exert pressure in [Iran's] favor in the Vienna
[nuclear] talks. The implications [of the escalation] will likely
be devastating for the helpless citizens of Gaza."<END QUOTE>


Another Saudi journalist, Sa'ud Al-Fawzan said that the war
could have been avoided entirely, but it's something that that the
leaders of Palestine and Israel wanted:

<QUOTE>"I will never show tolerance for the killing of
children in [either] Tel Aviv or Gaza. Those responsible for their
death are both [Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu and
[Hamas leader in Gaza Isma'il] Haniya. Were it not for Netanyahu
and Haniya, the Palestinians and the Israelis would have lived
together just as our forefathers coexisted peacefully with the
Jews for many centuries."<END QUOTE>


From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this interpretation
is comforting, but delusional. There is enormous mutual hostility,
xenophobia and hatred between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and
do Netanyahu and Haniya were doing what the people they were governing
wanted them to do.

And this is further proved, by the way, by the communal violence
between Palestinians and Israelis that broke out and is still ongoing.

****
**** What did the Israelis accomplish? Mowing the lawn
****


First, not all Israelis are happy with the ceasefire. The cities of
Ashkelon and Sderot, in southern Israel, have been hit particularly
hard to by Gaza rockets over the years, and have suffered numerous
casualties.

According to Sderot's mayor Alon Davidi:

<QUOTE>"This proves that despite the full support and
perseverance and heroism that the residents of the south have
shown for the past 20 years, it appears that Prime Minister
[Benjamin] Netanyahu and the Israeli government are not interested
in defeating Hamas and prefer temporary quiet for residents of
central Israel at the expense of residents of the Gaza periphery
and the south, who will continue to suffer from
terrorism."<END QUOTE>


Of course it's totally delusional that completely defeating Hamas is
even possible, but this is a widely held desire by many Israelis,
especially in the south.

When Israeli officials are interviewed about what they accomplished,
they describe the war much more succintly and in military terms.

They say that Israel had to defend itself from the incoming rockets,
and that they had to retaliate with massive missile strikes to destroy
Hamas's military infrastructure, including military offices, weapons
stores, and a huge labyrinth of underground tunnels. The objective is
to prevent a new war from occurring for as long a time as possible.

Israeli military commanders do not have any expectation of defeating
Hamas permanently. They use the metaphor "mowing the lawn" to capture
the idea that after destroying Hamas's arsenal and tunnels, they will
be restored again by Iran -- the grass will grow back and have to be
mowed again.

****
**** The Biden Administration plans
****


It was Egypt that negotiated the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
President Joe Biden says that ceasefire was possible because of his
intense behind the scenes mediation.

One of the accomplishments claimed by the Palestinians, along with the
rise in worldwide outrage at Israel, is that the far left in America's
Democrat Party, led by AOC, is demanding that Biden withdraw his
support from Israel. In particular, Biden is being pressured from the
left to cancel a $735 million weapons deal, most of which would be
used to resupply the defensive missiles in the Iron Dome anti-missile
system that protected much of Israel from the thousands of Gaza
rockets.

Not resupplying the Iron Dome would have disastrous consequences for
Israel, and would permit thousands of Gaza rockets to reach their
intended destinations, killing civilians in their homes.

AOC in the past has said that she is thrilled by how Biden has taken
one far left socialist position after another, but now for the first
time, Biden is being forced to take a position opposed to AOC. On
Friday, Biden says that the Democrat party "still supports Israel,"
and said:

<QUOTE>"There is no shift in my commitment to the security of
Israel. Period. No shift. The shift is we still need a two-state
solution. It is the only answer."<END QUOTE>


I've been ridiculing the "two-state solution" through the presidencies
of Bush, Obama, Trump and now Biden. The first major Generational
Dynamics analysis that I posted was Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003), in which I explained
why there would not be peace between the Israelis and Palestinians,
because they would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Trump's two-state solution plan was announced just a little over a
year ago. ( "29-Jan-20 World View -- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan"
)

Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and
Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely
on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas
and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza;
Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in
2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012
and July-August 2014.

These wars follow a typical, predictable pattern of a series of
clashes separated by periods of peace, with each clash more violent
than the preceding one. As the old saying goes, "Peace is that brief,
glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."
This pattern cannot go on forever, and eventually will lead to a
full-scale generational crisis war.

So now Biden is adopting the same delusional two-state solution plan
as Bush, Obama and Trump. The main features of Biden's plan are like
every other policy announced by Biden -- just do the opposite of Trump
did.

Trump's strategy, which included isolating Iran, was to strongly
support Israel and cut funding for Palestinian militias, to prevent
another war. Biden's strategy, which includes negotiations with Iran
to restore the JCPOA nuclear deal, is to "rebuild ties" with the
Palestinians. Biden will reopen the the consulate with the
Palestinians in Jerusalem -- Trump had closed it and made it part of
the new embassy in Jerusalem. Biden will ask Congress for $75 million
for economic assistance for the Palestinans, and also $5.5 million for
emergency aid for Gaza. Biden will also restore $32 million in new
aid for UNRWA, for the exponentially growing number of Palestinian
"refugees."

The money being provided is intended for use in rebuilding Gaza's
buildings and infrastructure after being devastated by war. The
objection, of course, is that those millions of dollars will be used
by Hamas to purchase new stocks of weapons from Iran in preparation
for the next war with Israel, instead of to rebuild Gaza.

Along with this monetary largess comes another part of the plan that
seems totally delusional. Biden's plan is to route the money though
the West Bank Palestinian Authority, and let Fatah, Hamas's enemy,
take charge of using Biden's money to rebuild Gaza. Yeah, that will
work fine.

As for the Democrat Party, there's a poisonous anti-Semitism growing,
which is resulting in violent attacks on Jews in this country. Black
Lives Matter is promoting the same hate-filled anti-Semitism.
Democrat leaders like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have said nothing
about the growing violence against Jews.

****
**** The future of the Mideast
****


Regular readers will be familiar with the following paragraph, since
I've written something like it dozens of times:

Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and
Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war,
pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic
groups against each other.

The latest Gaza war is actually different from previous Gaza wars in
some significant ways.

First, Hamas had more rockets and more powerful rockets than in the
past, supplied by Iran. Hamas points with pride to the fact that its
rockets can now reach apartment buildings in Tel Aviv for the first
time.

Second, Israel's missile strikes on Gaza were much more powerful than
in the past. The destruction of apartment blocks and infrastructure
was much more extensive than in 2014.

Third, the communal violence between Arabs and Israelis in the West
Bank and within Israel itself was much greater and more violent than
in the past. In particular, for the first time, Arabs living as
citizens in Israel took the fight to their Israeli neighbors. This is
extremely ominous, and the communal violence is still ongoing.

No politician, except the most delusional, believes that the recent
Gaza war was the last one. In a sense, the continuing communal
violence suggests that the recent Gaza war hasn't really ended yet.
But we can expect a new Gaza war in the not too distant future, and at
some point it will escalate into a full regional Mideast war.

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Palestine,
Hamas, Fatah, Yassir Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Iran, Hamed Abdel-Samad, Muhammad Aal Al-Sheikh, Sa'ud Al-Fawzan,
Ashkelon, Sderot, Tel Aviv, Alon Davidi, Egypt,
Iron Dome, two-state solution

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
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