07-16-2021, 08:56 PM
*** 17-Jul-21 World View -- Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** A year after port disaster, Lebanon still can't form a government
****
![[Image: g200926b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200926b.jpg)
Aftermath of August 4, 2020, port explosion in Beirut Lebanon (Reuters)
Lebanon continued its path to self-destruction on Thursday, when Saad
al-Hariri, who had been designated to form the first government
following the massive port explosion in Beirut on August 4 of last
year, resigned.
He offered his resignation after meeting with Lebanon's President
Michel Aoun. According to Hariri, Hariri's attempts to form a
government were thwarted by Aoun, who demanded that Hariri change his
proposed slate of ministers so that Iran-backed Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah would have a "blocking third," which means that
Nasrallah could veto any proposal of any other sect of the government,
giving Nasrallah effective dictatorial control of the government.
Hariri has been prime minister three times in the past, but resigned
in 2019, complaining that massive corruption was destroying the
country's economy. Shortly after the port blast, Hariri agreed to
return if he were allowed to choose his government cabinet ministers.
In his statement on Thursday, he said:
<QUOTE>"I withdrew from forming the government. Aoun
demanded some amendments, which he considered essential, and said
we will not be able to reach an understanding with each
other. ... And may God save this country.
I resigned in 2019 because I wanted a government of experts, and
if we formed Michel Aoun’s government then the country won’t be
saved.
The main problem of this country is Michel Aoun, who is allied
with Hezbollah, who in turn protects him. This is the equation in
the country and if someone can’t see it then they’re
blind."<END QUOTE>
Incredibly, a year has gone by since the port explosion, and the
corrupt politicians running the country have done nothing except
continue to line their own pockets.
The economy had been in free fall even before the explosion, with a
crashing currency and an unemployment rate above 30%.
About 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer had been left
unprotected, sitting in a storage warehouse since 2013, adjacent to a
fireworks factory, in the midst of a densely packed residential area.
Later investigations showed that Hezbollah had been using the ammonium
nitrate fertilizer to build bombs to be used in Syria. When the
explosion occurred, 300,000 people lost their homes from the
explosion, hundreds were killed, and thousands were wounded. 85% of
the country's grain storage was destroyed. Several hospitals were
destroyed. The explosion was far larger than anyone had ever seen,
and property was damaged and windows broken all across the city, and
for miles around. The explosion could be heard as far away as Cyprus.
The explosion was massive and destructive, but apparently not
destructive enough to shake loose Iran-backed Hezbollah's control of
Lebanon.
****
**** World Bank: Lebanon among the worst economic disasters since 1857
****
According to the World Bank in a report published in March, Lebanon's
financial crisis is among the top ten, and possibly the top 3, in
world history in the period since 1857 to the present. According to
the report:
<QUOTE>"In fact, Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55
billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020, with US$
GDP/ capita falling by around 40 percent. Such a brutal and rapid
contraction is usually associated with conflicts or wars. ... This
illustrates the magnitude of the economic depression that the
country is enduring, with sadly no clear turning point on the
horizon, given the disastrous deliberate policy inaction.
[In Fall 2020], the World Bank [termed] Lebanon’s economic crisis
The Deliberate Depression. For over a year, Lebanese authorities
countered an assailment of compounded crises -- namely, the
country’s largest peace-time economic and financial crisis,
COVID-19 and the Port of Beirut explosion -- with deliberately
inadequate policy responses. The inadequacy is less due to
knowledge gaps and quality advice and more the result of a
combination of (i) a lack of political consensus over effective
policy initiatives; and (ii) political consensus in defense of a
bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for so long. In
the face of these challenges, Lebanon lacks a fully-functioning
executive authority and is currently in the process of forming its
third Government in a little over a year. This debilitating
institutional void has lasted over 8 months so far."<END QUOTE>
In other words:
During the last year, nothing has changed. The year has simply been
wasted by government officials, especially Aoun and Nasrallah, who
don't want anything to change.
In August of last year, after the port explosion, France's president
Emmanuel Macron led an international conference which pledged nearly
$300 million in humanitarian assistance. However, the money was
withheld until a reform government could be formed, because otherwise
the $300 million would simply go into the pockets of the politicians
and their cronies.
A month later, there was no movement to reform. Macron said at a news
conference, "I’m ashamed of the Lebanese political leaders. Ashamed."
He accused them of “collective betrayal” and choosing “to favor their
partisan and individual interests to the general detriment of the
country.”
The main stumbling block, then and today, was that the Shiite sect
demanded complete control of the finance ministry, which means that
Nasrallah would be able to use Lebanon's treasury for any purpose he
wanted. What always happens in situations like these is that
Nasrallah and Hezbollah don't dare to open the books of the finance
ministry to scrutiny, since that would reveal years of robbery,
embezzlement and corruption that had previously been hidden.
****
**** Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government
****
In the past few months I've become aware of the brilliance of the US
Constitution and its ability to withstand these kinds of crises. This
is because of its system of checks and balances among the three
branches of government at the federal level, and the checks and
balances between the federal governments and the state governments. I
expect the US Constitutional form of government to withstand the
current attack, especially as vote audits in Arizona, Georgia and
other states are revealing what actually happened in the 2020
election. These audits could not be occurring except for the checks
and balances in the US Constitution.
However, there are no checks and balances whatsoever in Lebanon's
government, and that's why corruption is out of control and why the
country is unable to form a government in the wake of the massive
explosion that leveled much of Beirut -- an explosion that is the
fault of incompetence and corruption in Lebanon's government.
Lebanon has a "dynastic confessional" system of government. Lebanon's
"confessional" system of government is defined in its constitution,
which requires that the three main government offices be occupied by
specific sectarian groups:
So there are three "branches" of government in Lebanon, but there are
no checks and balances, since the leader of each branch can do
whatever he wants, including skimming money and paying his cronies to
do things like beat up people in the opposition, and there is nothing
to stop them. That's why each branch forms a kind of "dynasty."
As time goes on, each sect creates its own dynasty within the section
of government that it controls. So one way to think of Lebanon's
government is, not as a simple dictatorship, but as a triple
dictatorship, which each dynastic sect have complete dictatorial
control over one part of government, with complete power of
embezzlement and corruption, and no controls, no checks, no balances.
This system of government was set up that way for a reason. The sects
that I've mentioned -- the Sunni Muslims, the Shia Muslims, and the
Syriac Maronite Catholics -- consider people in any but there own sect
to be "scum of the earth." The different sects of Lebanon are not
capable of simply getting along with each other. The level of mutual
hatred between the sects runs extremely deep. This is standard fare
after an ethnic civil war in any country.
Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the civil war of
1975-90, mainly between Muslims versus Christians, killing some
200,000 people. A major event occurred on September 15-16, 1982, when
Maronite Christian militias massacred 2-3,000 Palestinian civilians in
the Sabra and Shatila Palestinian refugee camps. This act has haunted
Lebanon to this day.
That was 40 years ago. Most of the people today vividly remember the
horror of that mass slaughter, and many are still traumatized by it.
And they still hate each other for it. So the "confessional" form of
government in Lebanon was designed to keep the three sects as separate
as possible -- the complete opposite of mutual checks and balances.
No sect will have any say over what the other sects do, even when it's
corruption or other criminal activity.
If I understand correctly the reason given by al-Hariri for resigning
from his appointment to form a government is that he was trying to
break through this confessional blockade so that the government could
actually function.
Even though the port explosion was massive and horrific, it wasn't bad
enough to cause Hezbollah chief Nasrallah to give up any of his
dictatorial power. Better to let the people starve.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Saad al-Hariri, Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer,
Iran, France, Emmanuel Macron,
World Bank, confessional government, Nabih Berri, Hassan Diab
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- A year after port disaster, Lebanon still can't form a government
- World Bank: Lebanon among the worst economic disasters since 1857
- Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government
****
**** A year after port disaster, Lebanon still can't form a government
****
Aftermath of August 4, 2020, port explosion in Beirut Lebanon (Reuters)
Lebanon continued its path to self-destruction on Thursday, when Saad
al-Hariri, who had been designated to form the first government
following the massive port explosion in Beirut on August 4 of last
year, resigned.
He offered his resignation after meeting with Lebanon's President
Michel Aoun. According to Hariri, Hariri's attempts to form a
government were thwarted by Aoun, who demanded that Hariri change his
proposed slate of ministers so that Iran-backed Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah would have a "blocking third," which means that
Nasrallah could veto any proposal of any other sect of the government,
giving Nasrallah effective dictatorial control of the government.
Hariri has been prime minister three times in the past, but resigned
in 2019, complaining that massive corruption was destroying the
country's economy. Shortly after the port blast, Hariri agreed to
return if he were allowed to choose his government cabinet ministers.
In his statement on Thursday, he said:
<QUOTE>"I withdrew from forming the government. Aoun
demanded some amendments, which he considered essential, and said
we will not be able to reach an understanding with each
other. ... And may God save this country.
I resigned in 2019 because I wanted a government of experts, and
if we formed Michel Aoun’s government then the country won’t be
saved.
The main problem of this country is Michel Aoun, who is allied
with Hezbollah, who in turn protects him. This is the equation in
the country and if someone can’t see it then they’re
blind."<END QUOTE>
Incredibly, a year has gone by since the port explosion, and the
corrupt politicians running the country have done nothing except
continue to line their own pockets.
The economy had been in free fall even before the explosion, with a
crashing currency and an unemployment rate above 30%.
About 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer had been left
unprotected, sitting in a storage warehouse since 2013, adjacent to a
fireworks factory, in the midst of a densely packed residential area.
Later investigations showed that Hezbollah had been using the ammonium
nitrate fertilizer to build bombs to be used in Syria. When the
explosion occurred, 300,000 people lost their homes from the
explosion, hundreds were killed, and thousands were wounded. 85% of
the country's grain storage was destroyed. Several hospitals were
destroyed. The explosion was far larger than anyone had ever seen,
and property was damaged and windows broken all across the city, and
for miles around. The explosion could be heard as far away as Cyprus.
The explosion was massive and destructive, but apparently not
destructive enough to shake loose Iran-backed Hezbollah's control of
Lebanon.
****
**** World Bank: Lebanon among the worst economic disasters since 1857
****
According to the World Bank in a report published in March, Lebanon's
financial crisis is among the top ten, and possibly the top 3, in
world history in the period since 1857 to the present. According to
the report:
<QUOTE>"In fact, Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55
billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020, with US$
GDP/ capita falling by around 40 percent. Such a brutal and rapid
contraction is usually associated with conflicts or wars. ... This
illustrates the magnitude of the economic depression that the
country is enduring, with sadly no clear turning point on the
horizon, given the disastrous deliberate policy inaction.
[In Fall 2020], the World Bank [termed] Lebanon’s economic crisis
The Deliberate Depression. For over a year, Lebanese authorities
countered an assailment of compounded crises -- namely, the
country’s largest peace-time economic and financial crisis,
COVID-19 and the Port of Beirut explosion -- with deliberately
inadequate policy responses. The inadequacy is less due to
knowledge gaps and quality advice and more the result of a
combination of (i) a lack of political consensus over effective
policy initiatives; and (ii) political consensus in defense of a
bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for so long. In
the face of these challenges, Lebanon lacks a fully-functioning
executive authority and is currently in the process of forming its
third Government in a little over a year. This debilitating
institutional void has lasted over 8 months so far."<END QUOTE>
In other words:
- The financial crisis occurred in peacetime, but was worse than
usually occurs in all out war.
- The response to the port explosion was "deliberately
inadequate."
- The politicians benefited from a bankrupt economic
system.
During the last year, nothing has changed. The year has simply been
wasted by government officials, especially Aoun and Nasrallah, who
don't want anything to change.
In August of last year, after the port explosion, France's president
Emmanuel Macron led an international conference which pledged nearly
$300 million in humanitarian assistance. However, the money was
withheld until a reform government could be formed, because otherwise
the $300 million would simply go into the pockets of the politicians
and their cronies.
A month later, there was no movement to reform. Macron said at a news
conference, "I’m ashamed of the Lebanese political leaders. Ashamed."
He accused them of “collective betrayal” and choosing “to favor their
partisan and individual interests to the general detriment of the
country.”
The main stumbling block, then and today, was that the Shiite sect
demanded complete control of the finance ministry, which means that
Nasrallah would be able to use Lebanon's treasury for any purpose he
wanted. What always happens in situations like these is that
Nasrallah and Hezbollah don't dare to open the books of the finance
ministry to scrutiny, since that would reveal years of robbery,
embezzlement and corruption that had previously been hidden.
****
**** Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government
****
In the past few months I've become aware of the brilliance of the US
Constitution and its ability to withstand these kinds of crises. This
is because of its system of checks and balances among the three
branches of government at the federal level, and the checks and
balances between the federal governments and the state governments. I
expect the US Constitutional form of government to withstand the
current attack, especially as vote audits in Arizona, Georgia and
other states are revealing what actually happened in the 2020
election. These audits could not be occurring except for the checks
and balances in the US Constitution.
However, there are no checks and balances whatsoever in Lebanon's
government, and that's why corruption is out of control and why the
country is unable to form a government in the wake of the massive
explosion that leveled much of Beirut -- an explosion that is the
fault of incompetence and corruption in Lebanon's government.
Lebanon has a "dynastic confessional" system of government. Lebanon's
"confessional" system of government is defined in its constitution,
which requires that the three main government offices be occupied by
specific sectarian groups:
- The president, currently Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac
Maronite Catholic. Michel Aoun is 83 years old.
- The speaker of parliament must be a Shia Muslim. The current
speaker is Nabih Berri, who has held the position since 1992. The
Shia Muslim sect in Lebanon is controlled by the terrorist militia
Hezbollah, which is led by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
- The prime minister, must be a Sunni Muslim. Saad al-Hariri was
designated for this position, following the resignation of Hassan Diab
after the August 4 explosion a year ago. Hassan Diab has stayed on in
a caretaker capacity until political leaders can agree on a new
premier.
So there are three "branches" of government in Lebanon, but there are
no checks and balances, since the leader of each branch can do
whatever he wants, including skimming money and paying his cronies to
do things like beat up people in the opposition, and there is nothing
to stop them. That's why each branch forms a kind of "dynasty."
As time goes on, each sect creates its own dynasty within the section
of government that it controls. So one way to think of Lebanon's
government is, not as a simple dictatorship, but as a triple
dictatorship, which each dynastic sect have complete dictatorial
control over one part of government, with complete power of
embezzlement and corruption, and no controls, no checks, no balances.
This system of government was set up that way for a reason. The sects
that I've mentioned -- the Sunni Muslims, the Shia Muslims, and the
Syriac Maronite Catholics -- consider people in any but there own sect
to be "scum of the earth." The different sects of Lebanon are not
capable of simply getting along with each other. The level of mutual
hatred between the sects runs extremely deep. This is standard fare
after an ethnic civil war in any country.
Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the civil war of
1975-90, mainly between Muslims versus Christians, killing some
200,000 people. A major event occurred on September 15-16, 1982, when
Maronite Christian militias massacred 2-3,000 Palestinian civilians in
the Sabra and Shatila Palestinian refugee camps. This act has haunted
Lebanon to this day.
That was 40 years ago. Most of the people today vividly remember the
horror of that mass slaughter, and many are still traumatized by it.
And they still hate each other for it. So the "confessional" form of
government in Lebanon was designed to keep the three sects as separate
as possible -- the complete opposite of mutual checks and balances.
No sect will have any say over what the other sects do, even when it's
corruption or other criminal activity.
If I understand correctly the reason given by al-Hariri for resigning
from his appointment to form a government is that he was trying to
break through this confessional blockade so that the government could
actually function.
Even though the port explosion was massive and horrific, it wasn't bad
enough to cause Hezbollah chief Nasrallah to give up any of his
dictatorial power. Better to let the people starve.
Sources:
- France announces aid conference for Lebanon as Hariri abandons bid to form govt (France24, 16-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon’s PM-designate Saad Hariri resigns as crisis escalates (Al-Jazeera, 16-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon spins further into crisis as Hariri abandons bid to form government (Reuters, 15-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon's Hariri says President Aoun wanted blocking minority - Al Jadeed TV (Reuters, 15-Jul-2021)
- Emmanuel Macron to host new international conference on Lebanon August 4 (AFP, 16-Jul-2021)
- Emmanuel Macron / France to host Lebanon aid event on anniversary of port disaster (Al-Jazeera, 16-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon aid summit raises $300m to be given ‘directly’ to people (Al-Jazeera, 9-Aug-2020)
- Macron ‘ashamed’ of Lebanon’s political leaders amid crisis (AP, 28-Sep-2020)
- Riots in Lebanon as West calls for quick Cabinet formation (AP, 16-Jul-2021)
- Macron to host new international conference on Lebanon Aug 4 (Daily Star, Beirut, 16-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon days away from ‘social explosion’, PM Diab warns (Al-Jazeera, 6-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Lebanon Sinking (to the Top 3) (World Bank, 31-May-2021)
- LEBANON ECONOMIC MONITOR Lebanon Sinking (To the Top 3) Spring 2021 (World Bank, PDF, 31-May-2021)
Related Articles:
- Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion (09-Aug-2020)
- Lebanon: A country in free fall (17-Jul-2020)
- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses (19-Jan-2020)
- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war (02-Sep-2019)
- Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend (31-Aug-2019)
- How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
- Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Saad al-Hariri, Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer,
Iran, France, Emmanuel Macron,
World Bank, confessional government, Nabih Berri, Hassan Diab
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
