07-22-2021, 08:29 AM
** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Technology Today
What you're advocating is a universally accepted view that I almost
totally disagree with. The core events -- wars, refugees, poverty,
financial crises -- are the same throughout history, with only changes
in irrelevant details.
Let's take your "sovereign world debt" example. Are you kidding me?
You've heard of Tulipomania, haven't you? At its peak, the price of a
tulip equalled the price of a small house. Talk about inflation!
So there was no technology then, but there's lots of technology today.
But what do the two eras have in common that will result in a
financial crash today that is like the financial crash of 1637? The
answer is securitization of debt.
I don't know why people don't understand this, but fiat currencies are
completely irrelevant, because anyone -- ANYONE -- can create money by
means of securitization of debt.
Suppose I have $100 and you have nothing, so there is a total of $100
in the world. I lend you $100 and you give me an IOU for $100.
Suddenly, you have $100 and I have $100, in the form of a security.
So there is a total of $200 in the world, and we've "printed" an extra
$100.
Now suppose person C also you lends you $100, and you give him an IOU
for $100. Now there's $400 in the world.
Person C believes that you're going to be rich and convinces person D
that your IOU is really worth $200, and sells it to him for $200.
Question: How much money do I have?
Let's take an inventory:
* You have $200 that was lent to you by me and person C
* Person C has $200 that he received from person D
* Person D has a security (IOU) produced by you, worth $200.
* I also have $200, since the market value of your IOU is increased.
So I've made $100 by doing nothing. At the start, there was $200
in the world (me and C), and at the end there was $800.
In today's world, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in the
world mostly in the form of securities. In 1637, there were huge
amounts of money floating around in the form of "tulip futures":
certificates that could be exchanged for a tulip to be grown the
following spring. This came to be known as windhandel (the
wind trade), because the tulip bulbs were never delivered and the
money was never paid. The financial collapse led directly into the 30
years war.
*** 29-Feb-2020 World View: Evaluating historical data
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...407#p50407
** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...071009.htm
The sovereign debt example went on longer than I expected, so I'll
just summarize the other examples.
I just wrote an article on the crisis in Lebanon, and the crisis is
due entirely to the conflicts between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and
Maronite Christians -- and these differences go back centuries and
have nothing to do with technology.
I just wrote an article on South Africa, and the crisis is caused by
tribal differences between Zulus, Xhosa, Venda and other tribes, which
has nothing to do with technology, and may result in a repeat of the
Mfecane.
The Chinese and Japanese people vitriolically hate each other. That's
been true for centuries, and has nothing to do with technology.
In summary, technology has nothing to do with what's important in the
world today.
Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Good questions. There are definite similarities, and decadence and
> decay in general are part of these things - you are correct.
> What I think you do not deny in this vein, however, is that the
> world is increasingly smaller in the sense of globalism and
> manipulation through tech - and you yourself also are claiming the
> exponential advance of technology in general. I think it is smart
> to keep in mind that humans are the same and therefore things do
> rhyme - I accept and agree - but I'm pointing out that it is
> remarkably different right now for mostly tech and war potential,
> moving ahead.
> What's more, sovereign world debt in this spirit of the age is
> totally corrupt and there isn't much balance; mostly everyone is
> doing the same thing. The switch to fiat currencies, something
> that is NEW historically (yes this time it is different) has a
> logical conclusion [I'd actually argue an inevitability] in a one
> world gov't / fiat system.
> Think about it.
What you're advocating is a universally accepted view that I almost
totally disagree with. The core events -- wars, refugees, poverty,
financial crises -- are the same throughout history, with only changes
in irrelevant details.
Let's take your "sovereign world debt" example. Are you kidding me?
You've heard of Tulipomania, haven't you? At its peak, the price of a
tulip equalled the price of a small house. Talk about inflation!
So there was no technology then, but there's lots of technology today.
But what do the two eras have in common that will result in a
financial crash today that is like the financial crash of 1637? The
answer is securitization of debt.
I don't know why people don't understand this, but fiat currencies are
completely irrelevant, because anyone -- ANYONE -- can create money by
means of securitization of debt.
Suppose I have $100 and you have nothing, so there is a total of $100
in the world. I lend you $100 and you give me an IOU for $100.
Suddenly, you have $100 and I have $100, in the form of a security.
So there is a total of $200 in the world, and we've "printed" an extra
$100.
Now suppose person C also you lends you $100, and you give him an IOU
for $100. Now there's $400 in the world.
Person C believes that you're going to be rich and convinces person D
that your IOU is really worth $200, and sells it to him for $200.
Question: How much money do I have?
Let's take an inventory:
* You have $200 that was lent to you by me and person C
* Person C has $200 that he received from person D
* Person D has a security (IOU) produced by you, worth $200.
* I also have $200, since the market value of your IOU is increased.
So I've made $100 by doing nothing. At the start, there was $200
in the world (me and C), and at the end there was $800.
In today's world, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in the
world mostly in the form of securities. In 1637, there were huge
amounts of money floating around in the form of "tulip futures":
certificates that could be exchanged for a tulip to be grown the
following spring. This came to be known as windhandel (the
wind trade), because the tulip bulbs were never delivered and the
money was never paid. The financial collapse led directly into the 30
years war.
*** 29-Feb-2020 World View: Evaluating historical data
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...407#p50407
** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...071009.htm
The sovereign debt example went on longer than I expected, so I'll
just summarize the other examples.
I just wrote an article on the crisis in Lebanon, and the crisis is
due entirely to the conflicts between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and
Maronite Christians -- and these differences go back centuries and
have nothing to do with technology.
I just wrote an article on South Africa, and the crisis is caused by
tribal differences between Zulus, Xhosa, Venda and other tribes, which
has nothing to do with technology, and may result in a repeat of the
Mfecane.
The Chinese and Japanese people vitriolically hate each other. That's
been true for centuries, and has nothing to do with technology.
In summary, technology has nothing to do with what's important in the
world today.
