08-20-2021, 01:20 AM
(08-19-2021, 07:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Good analysis. As I see it, indeed the civil war 4T was longer (I date it as starting in around 1848-1850 and ending at the S&H-assigned date of 1865). The great war 4T was slightly shorter than normal as well, 1929 to 1946, but still almost normal. I think the saeculum is slowing down a bit since the "modern era" acceleration, which ramped up speed starting in the 18th century from the earlier times as "progress" began, but post-modern times since the mid-1960s is disillusion with progress, coupled with neo-liberal domination since 1980, so the saeculum is slowing down, giving us a longer than usual 3T and perhaps (we hope) a normal turning length for the 4T.
I agree the regeneracy started in 2017 with the alarm about our society having fallen under the leadership of a bumbling idiot racist neo-liberal on steroids, and thus ramping up of its harmful results, plus political polarization and renewed Left activism, leading to narrow Democratic victories in 2018 and 2020 and some government actions since 2020. Meanwhile this very month has been a declaration that we are in total meltdown. Covid has renewed its successful attack on humanity, especially in the USA. We don't know now whether covid will wind down, or continue much like the black plague did after its peak in 1348. In addition, the UN declared the world on the brink of collapse due to climate breakdown, unequivocally stating that it is humanity's fault, mostly due to our use of fossil fuels. The Trump side, the Republican side, has been denying and accelerating this climate crisis, which had already ramped up in two previous phases: the acceleration of gross national product since circa 1950 during the American Decade 1T, and the rise to power of neo-liberalism in circa 1980. How long the Trumpists and neo-liberalism can slow down or stop our dealing with this climate crisis may dictate exactly when we feel a crisis climax, when panic over climate breakdown truly sets in due to even-more rampant fires and floods and their possible economic impacts. Although the effects of global warming will be with us for decades to come, our regeneracy regarding it will be our decision to start reducing or reversing it.
In addition, the USA just lost its longest war, which could potentially unleash a new round of terrorist attacks by the Taliban-supported Al Qaeda and other re-invigorated Islamic fanatics around the world. We don't know yet if this will happen, but the USA war cycles are coming around in circa 2025, which increases the odds of more US involvement in foreign wars then, and during the years that follow that will likely be the crisis climax. Many other tyrannical regimes have taken or ramped up their power in recent years, brutally squashing the world-wide uprising of the people for freedom and justice, and this could also spur US involvement abroad.
This potential war could coincide with the climate panic in the USA, which could consist of heightened left activism leading to Democratic victories in elections, and ramped-up Trumpist domestic resistance and terrorist attacks or violent militia-induced civil war, as much-greater and stronger measures to deal with the crisis are effected by the Left, including higher taxes, more gun laws, more restriction on fossil fuels, more regulations, more social welfare measures and wage hikes, and more restrictions or lockdowns to deal with covid if it still rages on.
If measures insisted upon by the Left are indeed instituted, and the right-wing resistance is broken, only then will we have at-least a recovery 1T starting in 2029-2030, with some continued activism and resistance during it, but less-drastic on both sides; just enough for a mild consensus; leading into a greater degree of activism that reaches deeper into our lives and communities in the next Awakening starting in circa 2047, powered by the next alpha-wave prophets. HOWEVER, IF Left activism fails in the 2020s, despite the obvious need for it, and resistance on any level succeeds, then we will have a "decline" 1T in which the nation has broken up and/or slides into an unstoppable retreat and failure that also engulfs the entire world. I think this very month, the challenge has been rendered. We act, or we lose.
The choice is ours; we either get on board with the true regeneracy that started with the resistance to Trump in 2017, and act so that it takes the needed measures 1)to start to move our whole society quickly beyond fossil fuel use and other environmental and climate harm, 2)to end neo-liberalism (trickle-down/anti-welfare/anti-tax economics) and return to a thoroughly fair economy in all its aspects, 3)to end our uniquely-American gun obsession and start to control guns, 4)to end the assault on democracy and institute the needed reforms so that the Left can win, as it would in any fair system, 5)to remove as fully as we can the vestiges of systemic racism, anti-immigration, police brutality and other prejudice, and also reduce crime, and 6)reply to any terrorist threats with competent and targeted action rather than incompetent and random nation-building or world war, or our nation fails its 4T crisis test for the first time in anglo-american history. Boomers must lead, Xers organize, and Millennials participate fully on all levels in society, all on the blue and green side, for this to happen. We must do it all, and we CAN do it.
All 6 of those in what 8.5 years? I wonder how many of these will end up slipping up to solve in the 2T instead of now. Which of those fixes do you think the US will be able to actually implement during this 4T & which do you think will take longer to get a solid grip on?
