Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 23-Aug-21 World View -- The Afghanistan catastrophe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • The Afghanistan catastrophe
  • Reconstitution of al-Qaeda and 'Over the Horizon' warfare
  • Resurgence of ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K)
  • Biden says he is just following Donald Trump's policy
  • Generational Dynamics and the Democide Pattern
  • Using economic leverage against the Taliban

****
**** The Afghanistan catastrophe
****


[Image: g210822b.jpg]
Bitter, defiant President Joe Biden angry at non-compliant press coverage (Huffington Post)

The disastrous events in Afghanistan are still unfolding, so all we
can do is summarize what happened, and make some guesses about what's
about to happen. I will say that this situation has sickened and
infuriated me more than any other article I've written.

Once President Biden made the decision to evacuate all American
forces, he made a number of additional decisions, related to the
execution of the evacuation, that turned out to the cause of the
disaster. And these assessments are based on numerous analyses that
I've heard on Fox News, MSNBC, the BBC and al-Jazeera.

The two worst decisions were the following:
  • Setting a "date certain" of August 31 when all American troops
    would be withdrawn, with no conditionality on the part of the
    Taliban.

  • Evacuating Bagram airbase on July 5, leaving behind billions of
    dollars in advanced weaponry, before American civilians had been
    evacuated from Afghanistan.

Analysts I heard agree that all civilians should have been evacuated
first, then all the weapons should have been removed, and only then
should Bagram airbase have been evacuated.

The most immediate results of these decisions are the following:
  • 10-15,000 American citizens are left behind in villages and
    provinces across Afghanistan, with no credible plan to evacuate them.
    The same is true of the tens of thousands of Afghans who had worked
    for and aided Americans in the last 20 years, such as interpreters.
    Their lives have been threatened by the Taliban. The Americans will
    be used as hostages for years to com.

  • The 70,000 or so Taliban fighters are now flooded with some $85
    billion in advanced American weaponry left behind, including:
    warplanes, drones, m16s, blackhawks, night vision goggles, 200 small
    aircraft, and advanced battlefield communications technology.

  • This was not just an American mission. It was a NATO mission. If
    you listen to the BBC, the Brits are heartbroken and furious at Biden
    for destroying the entire NATO mission without even consulting with
    the other countries. The Germans, French and British calling it the
    "biggest debacle in Nato's history," questioning whether Nato can
    survive. Biden did not consult with any of them in advance.

The disaster is compounded by the numerous lies that Biden told in the
last two weeks, getting visibly angry and defiant whenever anyone
challenges him. He said that Americans are free to leave the country,
which is a lie. He said that America's allies approve of what he's
doing, which is a lie. He said that he wasn't warned about a likely
debacle by DoD and the CIA, which is a lie. He said that al-Qaeda is
gone, which is a lie. He said that America has no further interest in
Afghanistan, which is a lie. He said that girls and women will be
safe, which is a lie. He said that it will be possible to control
terrorism in Afghanistan with "over the horizon" technology, which is
a lie. He said that he made no mistakes in the way he ordered the
evacuation to be performed, which is a lie.

Biden responded to criticism by claiming that he had two choices:
continue the war with more troops, or end the war. This was spin. He
used this claim to deflect from the incompetency of the evacuation,
and also, evacuating the troops was never going to end the war.

There's an increasing belief that Biden is so cognitively challenged
that he is completely out of touch with reality, his presidency is a
danger to the country. Unfortunately, his vice-president is not much
better.

****
**** Reconstitution of al-Qaeda and 'Over the Horizon' warfare
****


Biden made several false claims -- that al-Qaeda was completely gone,
that the mission in Afghanistan over the last 20 years had been
accomplished, and that Afghanistan was no longer relevant to America.

The claim that al-Qaeda was gone was contradicted by a UN report that
claimed that elements of al-Qaeda continued to exist in numerous
provinces. Al-Qaeda have always been closely related to and a part of
the Taliban, and analysts say that when the American troops have been
withdrawn, al-Qaeda will reconstitute itself fully.

At that point, al-Qaeda will be back where it was 20 years ago --
having a safe haven in Afghanistan to use as a platform to launch
international attacks on Europe, the Mideast and possibly America.

Jihadists from all over the world will be energized, and will come to
Afghanistan for training.

Biden made vague claims that al-Qaeda terrorism can be prevented by
"Over the Horizon" technology, which uses such things as drones to
augment local intelligence. The problem is that all local
intelligence has been pretty much destroyed.

****
**** Resurgence of ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K)
****


There has been an ISIS branch in Afghanistan for some years, known as
ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K). This is a jihadist group in competition with
al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and they pretty much hate each other. The
importance of ISIS Khorasan is that they may decide to launch some
kind of terrorist attack around Kabul to embarrass both the Taliban
and the United States.

****
**** Biden says he is just following Donald Trump's policy
****


Biden has reversed one Donald Trump policy after another, causing one
disaster after another for the country. Since Biden has become
president, he has turned decision making over to millennials like AOC
who are sabotaging America. The result is open borders, floods of
illegal immigrants from dozens of counrties, spreading Covid and
bringing jihadists into the country; changing us from an
energy-dependent country to a country begging other countries for
energy; massive street crime in cities across the country; and now
this unmitigated disaster in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is the one Trump policy Biden chose not to reverse, but
did so in the most disastrous way possible. Biden claims that he was
just implementing a decision to withdraw the troops that had already
been committed by his predecessor, Donald Trump. But he did so in a
way most likely to sabotage America. Trump has indicated that he
would have made sure that the civilians and weapons were removed
before the troops were removed, and that claim is credible since it's
standard military procedure and is the policy used, for example, in
the evacuation of Saigon in 1975. In view of this history, it's hard
to explain Biden's decision to withdraw troops first was done other
than intentionally to sabotage America, just as opening the borders,
ending energy production and supporting street crime are apparently
done purposely to sabotage America.

However, analysts claim that Trump's decision in March 2020 to
evacuate was also delusional, and I agree with that, and I said so at
the time.

I started writing about this in 2009, during the Barack Obama
administration. President George Bush had executed a successful
counter-insurgency operation in Iraq in 2007, driving out al-Qaeda in
Iraq with a troop "surge." In 2009, I ridiculed Obama's announcement
that he would try to duplicate Bush's success with his own "surge" in
Afghanistan. ( "People are shocked! shocked! at Obama's war plan in Afghanistan. (06-Dec-2009)"
)

As I explained many times since then, Iraq and Afghanistan were
fundamentally different, with the result that a "surge" would work in
Iraq, but not in Afghanistan. I've written about this at length many
times, but briefly, the fighters in the al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)
insurgency were imported from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, while the
fighters, in the Afghan insurgency were Pashtuns indigenous to
Afghanistan. This is so simple and so obvious that it's unbelievable
how stupid the people in Washington are not to understand this. The
"surge" in Iraq sent the foreign fighters out of the country, while
the "surge" in Afghanistan just sent them to other villages within the
country.

Here's what I wrote in "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan"
in response
to Donald Trump's agreement with the Taliban to withdraw American
forces:

<QUOTE>"Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely
bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war,
fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the
Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they
need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins
from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in
Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other.
Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias.
These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities,
torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth
that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other
family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work
together. They'd rather kill each other.

The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in
great detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan.
It's not rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts,"
but it does require studying history and trying to understand
what's actually going on in the world. But we live in a society
where SAT scores have been plummetting for decades, ever since the
Boomers graduated, and where all college courses are being taught
by incredibly stupid Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream
media know nothing about the world except Marxist sociology and
women's studies. In Congress you have total idiots like AOC who
says something every day to prove how stupid she is. And in the
Administration, you have "experts" who have also graduated from
colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's studies.

So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket
science, but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the
analysts, journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of
whom are way too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have
any clue what's really going on in the world. The same is true
about many of the other hundreds of countries and societies that
I've studied, analyzed and written about in the last 15 years.
All the people in Washington can do is stumble in the dark, until
they stumble into World War III. Then they finally learn what's
going on. That's the way the world works.

"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed
to American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s."<END QUOTE>


If you read the above, you get some idea why I'm always right and the
Washington experts are almost always wrong. The catastrophe going on
in Afghanistan right now shows the result. I would add that you can
also get some idea why being always right has never made me loved.
It's brought me no joy, no money, but plenty of contempt.
Generational Dynamics has been a curse on my life and has only brought
me misery, as the ability to foretell the future did for the mythical
Cassandra and the Biblical Jeremiah. I've been doing this for 20
years, and since I'm now age 77, I hope I won't be doing this much
longer.

****
**** Generational Dynamics and the Democide Pattern
****


So now we can use some Generational Dynamics analysis to predict some
patterns that we can expect to see in Afghanistan.

Regular readers know that I've written several times about the
differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an
external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war
between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war
ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further
contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the
latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when
the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the
same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge
continue at a very personal level.

After a generational crisis civil war, the two sides are never really
at peace. The losing ethnic group uses demonstrations and riots to
attack the winning government, while the winning government uses
violence and extrajudicial torture and jailing to control the losing
group. I use the term "Democide Violence" to describe this violence
by the winning ethnic group government against the losing ethnic
group.

In the case of Afghanistan, we can expect to see this Democide Pattern
played out by the Taliban against their enemies in the 1990s civil war
-- the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance.

The Democide Pattern was extremely bloody in the late 1990s, following
the 1991-96 civil war, when the Pashtuns committed massacres against
the Hazaras in northern Afghanistan.

Those massacres ended with the defeat of the Taliban 20 years ago by
Nato, but they may begin again. The Panjshir Valley in northern
Afghanistan is a hotbed of the old Northern Alliance. The Taliban
says that they are sending hundreds of fighters to the Panjshir
Valley. This drama will unfold in the next few days and weeks.

In the past, the Taliban have been unable to subdue the Panjshir
Valley because of its geography -- high mountains on three sides with
a narrow pass on the fourth side. However, there is a difference this
time because the Taliban will be armed with the advanced weapons that
the Americans left behind. This will be the first major test of the
Taliban's use of American weapons.

****
**** Using economic leverage against the Taliban
****


Biden is going to try to get the August 31 deadline extended. The
Taliban have said that they will refuse to allow that, but Biden can
use economic leverage. There $16 billion in Afghanistan Central Bank
assets being held by the United States or by the IMF, and unfreezing
these funds can be used as leverage.

However, this may cause the Taliban government to ask China or
Pakistan for a temporary infusion of funds. It's not clear how all
this will play out.

This may well end up being another humiliation for the United States.
It is just one more example of how President Biden's evacuation of
Afghanistan is, according to many analysts I've heard, the greatest
foreign policy disaster since the end of World War II, and completely
preventable.

In my opinion, the country is being led by an arrogant, bumbling fool
for a president, and an arrogant, bumbling fool for a vice-president.
This is an extremely dangerous time for all of us.

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Joe Biden, Nato,
Taliban, al-Qaeda, Bagram airbase, Over the Horizon,
ISIS Khorasan, ISIS-K, Iraq, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI,
Democide Pattern, Panjshir Valley,
Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021, 09:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,835 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,413 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,703 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,309 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,345 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 44 Guest(s)