Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(08-31-2021, 03:47 AM)justpassingthrough Wrote: It's been several years since I posted here, and my views on the cyclical theories have continued to evolve. The thought I have now is that today bears a startling resemblance to the late 1970s. And that leads me to think that if you want to know what a "Crisis" is going to look like, you have to look at the end of the preceding "Awakening". Meaning, this is not a replay of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, or WWII, as we all speculated for years. If you had to give this Crisis a name, the best one available is probably "Jimmy Carter". On steroids. 

Is this the late '70s? No, I don't think so. They do share a resonance as a "fin de siecle" -- the late 70s ushering out the 2T and the present ushering out the 4T. We're still defing what this end will be and the new start to folow as well, but this era and '70s have nothing else in common I can see.

JPT Wrote:I think it would be fair to call WWI the end of the previous Awakening, and WWII was the climax of the Crisis. The technologies and totalitarian ideologies that produced WWII were born in the preceding Progressive Era, and produced WWI, the USSR, eugenics, human flight, prohibition, and so on by the end of that Awakening. 

So we have been, stupidly, for years, predicting something that looks like past Crises. When we already know what the issues are. All you have to do is look at the 1960s and 1970s. Mao-inspired neo-Marxist identity politics, cultural revolution and terrorism, economic and cultural decline, the disintegration and demoralization of American society, and of American geopolitical standing, allowed by widespread narcissistic hedonism, greed and corruption. That's Boomers. Always has been, always will be.

Sorry, but you don't get to choose the leading-edge issues this time, any more than the last 4T selected it's precursors. First, cultural decline is still TBD (we may well be in a renaissance, just not one you recognize). Economic decline can be attributed to neoliberalism, which has roots in the first Gilded Age, not the Boomer generation. The rest has litle to do with America and the West, though both much of the East and Russia may be affected.

JPT Wrote:Economic crashes, pandemics, and technological disruption are the kinds of things that happen throughout history. What is unique to the current moment is the response to those things by the current generational constellation. S&H often seemed to suggest that these generations would "rise to the occasion" and become something they never were before. Nope. Boomers are Boomers. This is the world they created. In response to the 2008 crash (which I now commit to as the beginning of the 4T), the preceding Awakening imposed itself on the world in full force, in the form of Barack Obama. He was the embodiment and messiah of everything the Awakening was about. So instead of fixing the economy, we got Obamacare and anti-American, intersectional identity politics. And now we fly BLM and rainbow flags at American embassies while the world laughs at us. 

We Boomers are bifurcated. The Progeressive Boomers are working to settle the issues of the day. The reactionary Boomers are planning to return to an imagined past. I know, many of my friends live in their own private LaLaLand, and expecting much of them is a thorough waste of time. What Progress we make will be done by the Millennials, who are finally starting to get the message that it's them or no one. We'll have to see if that takes hold or ennui sets in.

JPT Wrote:The economy is in shambles, the US is incompetent in foreign affairs and the society is disintegrating domestically, while the crusaders of the Awakening ride triumphantly over the cliff. I am deeply disturbed by the actions of the "ruling elite" over the last 13 years, and the last two years, particularly in Washington, Silicon Valley and blue state governments. But I increasingly see the real end game here being one of delusional, megalomanical narcissists slamming face first into the brick wall of reality. The response of that elite and their dutiful followers to things not going their way, to their Utopia slipping from their grasp, has been startlingly incompetent, panicked, and frenzied. They have lashed out with outrageous authoritarianism, but also cower in their bunkers, wearing three masks if they dare to go outdoors. George Orwell never foresaw Big Brother residing in San Francisco, with the thought police stomping their boot to promote non-reproductive sexuality, obesity, open borders and a senile president. But here we are.

I'm not happy with things as they are, but calling the ecoomy "a shambles" is pusing the envelop right off the desk. And worying about Blue State governments when Red State governments are actively trying to kill their own citizens is misplaced panic. There's plenty that needs doing, and the next phase you're going to hate: communitarianism. Yes, we'll need to work together and forgo some of our excessive liberties or the entire enterperise will fail. We're already having a fourth wave of COVID, and Red States are shoouting, "Bring it on!"

JPT Wrote:Voices from other countries, especially longstanding allies, are increasingly concerned that the US is falling apart. They are increasingly seeking to protect themselves from the fallout of the disintegration of the nation they used to look to for leadership. For others, in poorer countries, there is a rejection of "Americanism", which they used to aspire to. They'll take our money where they can get it, but any moral reputation the US used to posses is utterly gone. They see our tanks riding in with rainbow flags and say, "no thank you".

There's truth here, and all for the better. We've always sucked at being imperialists, and should just agree that we can't pull it off. We do much better when we have a partner looking for our help, not an adversary or even a collapsed society that we seem to think needs us.

JPT Wrote:I don't yet know how to contextualize Trump. That has been a bizarre episode in history, and it's possible he may run again in 2024 (and win). But he is a component of the Boomer id, sabotaged by the same afflictions of the rest of his generation. He tried to combat the dominant elite by feeding their own vomit back to them, with his own style of narcissism and self-aggrandizement. In that sense, they're all the same.

Give the "it's all the Boomers fault" a rest will you? My Gen is to blame for plenty, just not everything. More to the point, we're not responsible for fixing everything that's broken either. We've fixed a lot and broken a lot, and now it's over to you and the Millies. Note: without us, you would still be writing on typewriters and in cursive. We gave you the tools. Use them well.

JPT Wrote:I know what the end game looks like, if the nation survives. Humble traditionalism, a quest for stability and normality, and a rejection of self-righteous crusades to "Change the World ™". But I'm not at all sure as of now that it will survive. What I am 99% sure of (now, as I always have been) is that civil war is not a possibility, despite the feverish speculation of some. It looks more like the fall of the Roman Empire.

You had better hope that this isn't the end of the American State, because we need the state to fix Global Warming and an impending inequality that will look a hell of a lot like Feudalism. The social stuff will require other fixes, and governemnt is a tool, but not a driver. So get vaccinated. You'll need it.