09-14-2021, 09:09 AM
** 14-Sep-2021 World View: CPI remains on 2008 path
Update: The 2021 figures have been corrected below.
So here we are again. After months of inflation hysteria, on TV and
in this forum, it now appears that the CPI is leveling off, and not
spiraling up to infinity. How many times have we gone through this
cycle in the last 20 years? Too many to count.
This is a deflationary era. What I mean by that is that inflation
will remain low. Furthermore, the high public debt leads to the
second outcome of a deflationary era, namely that it ends with a sharp
deflationary crash.
We're still roughly on the same path as 2008, and not even as high as
2008:
2008:
4.30, 4.03, 3.94, 3.92, 4.18, 4.99,
5.60, 5.38, 4.93, 3.67, 1.06, 0.11
2021: [Corrected]
1.40, 1.68, 2.62, 4.16, 4.99, 5.39,
5.37, 5.25
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm
Late in 2008, the cpi began falling, and actually turned negative in
2009.
2009:
0.02, 0.23, -0.37, -0.73, -1.27, -1.42,
-2.10, -1.48, -1.29, -0.18, 1.84, 2.72
It's possible that the cpi is about to turn negative again.
** 15-Jun-21 World View -- The hysteria over inflation in a deflationary era
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210615
The "experts" have been wrong almost every quarter for 70 quarters.
It looks like the "experts" are wrong again and I've been right.
Update: The 2021 figures have been corrected below.
So here we are again. After months of inflation hysteria, on TV and
in this forum, it now appears that the CPI is leveling off, and not
spiraling up to infinity. How many times have we gone through this
cycle in the last 20 years? Too many to count.
This is a deflationary era. What I mean by that is that inflation
will remain low. Furthermore, the high public debt leads to the
second outcome of a deflationary era, namely that it ends with a sharp
deflationary crash.
We're still roughly on the same path as 2008, and not even as high as
2008:
2008:
4.30, 4.03, 3.94, 3.92, 4.18, 4.99,
5.60, 5.38, 4.93, 3.67, 1.06, 0.11
2021: [Corrected]
1.40, 1.68, 2.62, 4.16, 4.99, 5.39,
5.37, 5.25
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm
Late in 2008, the cpi began falling, and actually turned negative in
2009.
2009:
0.02, 0.23, -0.37, -0.73, -1.27, -1.42,
-2.10, -1.48, -1.29, -0.18, 1.84, 2.72
It's possible that the cpi is about to turn negative again.
** 15-Jun-21 World View -- The hysteria over inflation in a deflationary era
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210615
The "experts" have been wrong almost every quarter for 70 quarters.
It looks like the "experts" are wrong again and I've been right.
