10-19-2021, 09:33 PM
*** 20-Oct-21 World View -- Investigation of Beirut Lebanon's seaport explosion leads to more violence
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Bloody gun battle in Beirut Lebanon stokes memories of civil war
****
![[Image: g200821b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200821b.jpg)
A man stands near the Beirut blast site on August 11, 2020. Graffiti reads 'My government did this' (Reuters)
One again, new events have occurred to prove that Lebanon is an island
of grief surrounded by woe. The people have to suffer through one
disaster after another in Lebanon, where there is nobody on the side
of the angels.
On Thursday of last week, there was a bloody five-hour gun battle in
Lebanon's capital city Beirut, pitting Syriac Maronite Christians
versus Shia Muslim Hezbollah. Seven people were killed, all Shia
Muslims, and dozens were injured.
The gun battle was carried live on al-Jazeera. The gun battle
occurred in an ordinary residential neighborhood, where the apartment
buildings on one side of the street were mostly occupied by Hezbollah
supporters, while the apartment buildings on the other side were
mostly occupied by Christians. The Hezbollah protesters marched down
the street separating the two neighborhoods. According to the news
reports, snipers were on top of the apartment buildings on the
Christian side, shooting protesters in the head as they walked by.
Hezbollah, which is a military force backed by Iran, and its political
arm, the Amal movement, are accusing the Christian party of conducting
an "ambush."
According to the reports, the residents of the apartment buildings
were elderly people who remembered the extremely horrific 1975-90
civil war, and did not want to see it repeated. This is what always
happens after a crisis war. The people who lived through the war are
traumatized and keep the war from recurring. In the case of an ethnic
civil war, the result is the Democide pattern which means that the
government (the winning side in the civil war) uses violence to keep
the losing side under control.
As the gun battle was progressing, many people feared that it would
escalate into a renewal of the civil war. But this is a generational
Unraveling era for Lebanon, and there are too many people alive who
remember the horrors of the last civil war, and will do everything in
their power to prevent a new one. So it's not surprising the gun
battle fizzled after five hours.
****
**** Lebanon's government of impunity
****
In August of last year there was a massive explosion in the port of
Beirut, which could be felt as far away as Cyprus. It has been
described as the greatest non-nuclear explosion in world history. The
people of Beirut, many of whose lives were destroyed by the
catastrophe, correctly blame government officials. Many go to blame
the most powerful force in Lebanon's government, Iran-backed
Hezbollah. (See "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion"
)
In 2013, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate were stored in an
unprotected warehouse in the seaport of Beirut next door to a
fireworks factory. The government did nothing about it for years,
despite repeated warnings, and there are reports that Hezbollah used
some of the ammonium nitrate to create bombs and weapons that it used
in the war in Syria. Finally, on Tuesday, August 4, 2020, a
catastrophic explosion in the Beirut seaport leveled thousands of
homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left 300,000 people
homeless,
Prior to the explosion, goverment services like providing electricity,
water and garbage collection were spotty. Since the explosion, the
value of the currency has fallen 90%, homes go for days with no
electricity, the water is filthy, and there's no garbage collection.
Anecdotally, they now live the “shawarma paradox”: the national
sandwich which cost 5,000 Lebanese pounds or $2 a couple of years ago,
today is priced at 20,000 pounds or less than a dollar.
Lebanon's government is a government of impunity. Any government
official can skim money and put it into his Swiss bank account or buy
a Swiss villa with impunity. There have been numerous political
assassinations, and no one is ever held accountable. There are never
even any investigations.
With the seaport explosion, a whole city was blown up, and so many of
the Lebanese people were traumatized, and are still traumatized, that
the ordinary people (not the élite) and are demanding to know who was
responsible for the explosion so that they can be held accountable.
****
**** The investigation of the port explosion paralyzes Lebanon's government
****
The "ordinary" people of Beirut have been demanding an investigation,
and an end to the government of impunity. They want to know who is
responsible, and they want someone to be held accountable. People
want to know who owned the ammonium nitrate? Who refused to do
anything about it, though they were repeatedly warned over and over?
Who ordered the ammonium nitrate to be unloaded from the boat into the
port in 2013 in the first place?
Last year, the people initially demanded an international
investigation. Hezbollah's powerful leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
blocked those attempts, and said that an investigation would have to
be local.
So surprisingly there actually was a Lebanese investigation, led by
Judge Tarek Bitar has been praised by the international community for
being unbiased and transparent in carrying out the investigation.
However, as the investigation has proceeded, it has been increasingly
threatening to Hezbollah, as former Hezbollah ministers are being
called to testify. At the same time, Lebanon's Christian President
Michel Aoun has supported the investigation.
It's the success so far of the investigation that led to Thursday's
shootout. The Hezbollah supporters were protesting the investigation,
demanding that Bitar be removed. It's not clear why the Christians
were ambushing the Hezbollah protests at this time, except that
there's a lot of anger among victims of the catastophic seaport
explosion, and they are willing to use violence to determine who is
responsible.
****
**** Hezbollah threatens large-scale violence
****
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has made it clear that he will not tolerate the
Bitar investigation much longer. An investigation that finds that
Hezbollah officials were responsible for the explosion would be a
major humiliation to Hezbollah and to Iran.
The Christian president Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader
Nasrallah formed an alliance of convenience in 2006, to their
mutual benefit. However, the Catholics want an investigation
and Hezbollah does not, and this has caused a split between
Aoun and Nasrallah.
This conflict has benefited Aoun's Christian political rival, Samir
Geagea, a Hezbollah opponent with close Saudi ties. Geagea is leader
of Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian party opposing Aoun.
Geagea was a military commander during the Lebanese civil war, and is
accused of participating in massacres and an organized coup.
Nasrallah is now blaming Geagea and the Lebanese Forces with being
responsible for the shootout last week, allied with Saudi Arabia, the
United States and Israel. According to a pro-Hezbollah report, Geagea
has sought to “impose himself as the sole representative of the
Christians and return to the sectarian stronghold by committing a
deliberate and organized massacre like the one he committed during the
Lebanese Civil War.”
In a nationally televised speech on Monday, Nasrallah said:
<QUOTE>"Civil war constitutes the real plan of the Lebanese
Forces party, because civil war will lead to demographic changes,
which will cram the Christians into a specific area, like in
[their] past dreams, where they will establish a Christian canton,
a Christian state, or a Christian ghetto, which will be dominated
by the Lebanese Forces party. ...
[Geagea,] you should pay attention to the following figure. This
is the first time I divulge this figure, and I do it to prevent a
civil war, rather than to threaten to start one. You know me, I
never say something that is not true. I belong to the school that
maintains that lies are not useful even in psychological
warfare. Only truth and reliability are useful in psychological
warfare."<END QUOTE>
At the same time, Hezbollah continues to demand that Judge Bitar's
investigation be ended, while the public at large is demanding that
it reach a conclusion and identify the responsible parties.
****
**** Lebanon's future
****
Lebanon's government was already in a fragile state, but the dispute
over Judge Bitar and the investigation has paralyzed the government
completely, as it is now impossible even to call a cabinet meeting.
The situation is evolving on a daily basis. Nobody wants another
civil war, particularly the elderly people who survived the last civil
war. But there will still be sporadic violence.
Unanswered questions: Will Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation continue?
Will the government collapse completely? The situation is so
volatile, we may have at least a few answers soon.
The one emerging hope is that there will be reforms leading to the
emergence of a non-sectarian government of technocrats. If such a
government is acceptable to the international community, then
sanctions will be removed, and aid will flow into Lebanon.
However, that's a dream. Iran and Hezbollah will never give up their
power without a war, and it's more likely that the sporadic violence
will recur and grow.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Iran,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer, Tarek Bitar,
Lebanese civil war, Democide pattern, shawarma paradox,
Samir Geagea, Lebanese Forces, LF, Saudi Arabia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Bloody gun battle in Beirut Lebanon stokes memories of civil war
- Lebanon's government of impunity
- The investigation of the port explosion paralyzes Lebanon's government
- Hezbollah threatens large-scale violence
- Lebanon's future
****
**** Bloody gun battle in Beirut Lebanon stokes memories of civil war
****
A man stands near the Beirut blast site on August 11, 2020. Graffiti reads 'My government did this' (Reuters)
One again, new events have occurred to prove that Lebanon is an island
of grief surrounded by woe. The people have to suffer through one
disaster after another in Lebanon, where there is nobody on the side
of the angels.
On Thursday of last week, there was a bloody five-hour gun battle in
Lebanon's capital city Beirut, pitting Syriac Maronite Christians
versus Shia Muslim Hezbollah. Seven people were killed, all Shia
Muslims, and dozens were injured.
The gun battle was carried live on al-Jazeera. The gun battle
occurred in an ordinary residential neighborhood, where the apartment
buildings on one side of the street were mostly occupied by Hezbollah
supporters, while the apartment buildings on the other side were
mostly occupied by Christians. The Hezbollah protesters marched down
the street separating the two neighborhoods. According to the news
reports, snipers were on top of the apartment buildings on the
Christian side, shooting protesters in the head as they walked by.
Hezbollah, which is a military force backed by Iran, and its political
arm, the Amal movement, are accusing the Christian party of conducting
an "ambush."
According to the reports, the residents of the apartment buildings
were elderly people who remembered the extremely horrific 1975-90
civil war, and did not want to see it repeated. This is what always
happens after a crisis war. The people who lived through the war are
traumatized and keep the war from recurring. In the case of an ethnic
civil war, the result is the Democide pattern which means that the
government (the winning side in the civil war) uses violence to keep
the losing side under control.
As the gun battle was progressing, many people feared that it would
escalate into a renewal of the civil war. But this is a generational
Unraveling era for Lebanon, and there are too many people alive who
remember the horrors of the last civil war, and will do everything in
their power to prevent a new one. So it's not surprising the gun
battle fizzled after five hours.
****
**** Lebanon's government of impunity
****
In August of last year there was a massive explosion in the port of
Beirut, which could be felt as far away as Cyprus. It has been
described as the greatest non-nuclear explosion in world history. The
people of Beirut, many of whose lives were destroyed by the
catastrophe, correctly blame government officials. Many go to blame
the most powerful force in Lebanon's government, Iran-backed
Hezbollah. (See "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion"
)
In 2013, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate were stored in an
unprotected warehouse in the seaport of Beirut next door to a
fireworks factory. The government did nothing about it for years,
despite repeated warnings, and there are reports that Hezbollah used
some of the ammonium nitrate to create bombs and weapons that it used
in the war in Syria. Finally, on Tuesday, August 4, 2020, a
catastrophic explosion in the Beirut seaport leveled thousands of
homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left 300,000 people
homeless,
Prior to the explosion, goverment services like providing electricity,
water and garbage collection were spotty. Since the explosion, the
value of the currency has fallen 90%, homes go for days with no
electricity, the water is filthy, and there's no garbage collection.
Anecdotally, they now live the “shawarma paradox”: the national
sandwich which cost 5,000 Lebanese pounds or $2 a couple of years ago,
today is priced at 20,000 pounds or less than a dollar.
Lebanon's government is a government of impunity. Any government
official can skim money and put it into his Swiss bank account or buy
a Swiss villa with impunity. There have been numerous political
assassinations, and no one is ever held accountable. There are never
even any investigations.
With the seaport explosion, a whole city was blown up, and so many of
the Lebanese people were traumatized, and are still traumatized, that
the ordinary people (not the élite) and are demanding to know who was
responsible for the explosion so that they can be held accountable.
****
**** The investigation of the port explosion paralyzes Lebanon's government
****
The "ordinary" people of Beirut have been demanding an investigation,
and an end to the government of impunity. They want to know who is
responsible, and they want someone to be held accountable. People
want to know who owned the ammonium nitrate? Who refused to do
anything about it, though they were repeatedly warned over and over?
Who ordered the ammonium nitrate to be unloaded from the boat into the
port in 2013 in the first place?
Last year, the people initially demanded an international
investigation. Hezbollah's powerful leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
blocked those attempts, and said that an investigation would have to
be local.
So surprisingly there actually was a Lebanese investigation, led by
Judge Tarek Bitar has been praised by the international community for
being unbiased and transparent in carrying out the investigation.
However, as the investigation has proceeded, it has been increasingly
threatening to Hezbollah, as former Hezbollah ministers are being
called to testify. At the same time, Lebanon's Christian President
Michel Aoun has supported the investigation.
It's the success so far of the investigation that led to Thursday's
shootout. The Hezbollah supporters were protesting the investigation,
demanding that Bitar be removed. It's not clear why the Christians
were ambushing the Hezbollah protests at this time, except that
there's a lot of anger among victims of the catastophic seaport
explosion, and they are willing to use violence to determine who is
responsible.
****
**** Hezbollah threatens large-scale violence
****
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has made it clear that he will not tolerate the
Bitar investigation much longer. An investigation that finds that
Hezbollah officials were responsible for the explosion would be a
major humiliation to Hezbollah and to Iran.
The Christian president Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader
Nasrallah formed an alliance of convenience in 2006, to their
mutual benefit. However, the Catholics want an investigation
and Hezbollah does not, and this has caused a split between
Aoun and Nasrallah.
This conflict has benefited Aoun's Christian political rival, Samir
Geagea, a Hezbollah opponent with close Saudi ties. Geagea is leader
of Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian party opposing Aoun.
Geagea was a military commander during the Lebanese civil war, and is
accused of participating in massacres and an organized coup.
Nasrallah is now blaming Geagea and the Lebanese Forces with being
responsible for the shootout last week, allied with Saudi Arabia, the
United States and Israel. According to a pro-Hezbollah report, Geagea
has sought to “impose himself as the sole representative of the
Christians and return to the sectarian stronghold by committing a
deliberate and organized massacre like the one he committed during the
Lebanese Civil War.”
In a nationally televised speech on Monday, Nasrallah said:
<QUOTE>"Civil war constitutes the real plan of the Lebanese
Forces party, because civil war will lead to demographic changes,
which will cram the Christians into a specific area, like in
[their] past dreams, where they will establish a Christian canton,
a Christian state, or a Christian ghetto, which will be dominated
by the Lebanese Forces party. ...
[Geagea,] you should pay attention to the following figure. This
is the first time I divulge this figure, and I do it to prevent a
civil war, rather than to threaten to start one. You know me, I
never say something that is not true. I belong to the school that
maintains that lies are not useful even in psychological
warfare. Only truth and reliability are useful in psychological
warfare."<END QUOTE>
At the same time, Hezbollah continues to demand that Judge Bitar's
investigation be ended, while the public at large is demanding that
it reach a conclusion and identify the responsible parties.
****
**** Lebanon's future
****
Lebanon's government was already in a fragile state, but the dispute
over Judge Bitar and the investigation has paralyzed the government
completely, as it is now impossible even to call a cabinet meeting.
The situation is evolving on a daily basis. Nobody wants another
civil war, particularly the elderly people who survived the last civil
war. But there will still be sporadic violence.
Unanswered questions: Will Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation continue?
Will the government collapse completely? The situation is so
volatile, we may have at least a few answers soon.
The one emerging hope is that there will be reforms leading to the
emergence of a non-sectarian government of technocrats. If such a
government is acceptable to the international community, then
sanctions will be removed, and aid will flow into Lebanon.
However, that's a dream. Iran and Hezbollah will never give up their
power without a war, and it's more likely that the sporadic violence
will recur and grow.
Sources:
- Deadly shooting rocks Beirut as tensions over blast probe erupt (Reuters, 14-Oct-2021)
- Hezbollah accuses Lebanese Forces of killing its supporters (Al-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2021)
- Lebanon tensions test Hezbollah-Aoun alliance (Reuters, 18-Oct-2021)
- Hezbollah backers claims US-Zionist-Geagea conspiracy in Lebanon - analysis (Jerusalem Post, 19-Oct-2021)
- Hezbollah’s campaign against Beirut blast judge paralyses Lebanon’s government (France24, 19-Oct-2021)
- Lebanon goes to polls in March as economic meltdown spirals (Reuters, 19-Oct-2021)
- Better Safe Than Sorry: Irish Peacekeepers Are Bringing Javelin Missiles On Lebanon Deployment (Forbes, 19-Oct-2021)
- Details of Beirut clashes remain unclear as Lebanon marks protests anniversary (Jerusalem Post, 17-Oct-2021)
- Iran blames Israel for Lebanon's unrest (Mideast Monitor, 16-Oct-2021)
- 'The Iran touch': Tehran is behind decline in Lebanon, Iraq - Bennett (Jerusalem Post, 18-Oct-2021)
- Marwan Bishara / A country in freefall: What future for Lebanon? (Al-Jazeera, 19-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon’s Future as an Inclusive Democracy in Doubt (Fair Observer, 18-Oct-2021)
- Lebanon to resume talks with IMF, but outcome uncertain (Deutsche-Welle, 18-Oct-2021)
- Lebanon elite united against probe seen as survival threat (AFP, 18-Oct-2021)
- Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah: The Lebanese Forces Party Is The Biggest Threat To The Existence And Security Of Christians In Lebanon; We Have 100,000 Trained Fighters (Memri, 19-Oct-2021)
Related Articles:
- Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster (17-Jul-2021)
- Lebanon's new prime minister resigns in failure, throwing country into further chaos (27-Sep-2020)
- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion (22-Aug-2020)
- Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion (09-Aug-2020)
- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses (19-Jan-2020)
- Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon (21-Oct-2019)
- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war (02-Sep-2019)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Iran,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer, Tarek Bitar,
Lebanese civil war, Democide pattern, shawarma paradox,
Samir Geagea, Lebanese Forces, LF, Saudi Arabia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
