10-23-2021, 09:07 PM
*** 24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
****
![[Image: g211023b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g211023b.jpg)
Burmese troops
Ever since the military coup that took place on February 1 of this
year, the military junta of Myanmar (Burma) has been increasingly
violent. More than 1,100 civilians have been killed by Myanmar
security forces with thousands of others arrested, according to the
United Nations, involving most peaceful anti-government protesters.
Now, the military junta in Myanmar is massing tens of thousands of
troops and heavy weapons in northwest Myanmar, and talking about
"clearance operations." This is exactly the same scenario that
preceded the ferocious attacks, unspeakable violance and mass
atrocities conducted against the Rohingyas in Rakhine state in
2016-2018.
According to Tom Andrews of the United Nations:
<QUOTE>"These tactics are ominously reminiscent of those
employed by the military before its genocidal attacks against the
Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017.
We should all be prepared, as the people in this part of Myanmar
are prepared, for even more mass atrocity crimes. I desperately
hope that I am wrong."<END QUOTE>
As I've described starting with the massive demonstrations in 2007 by
the "'88 Generation," Burma's last two generational crisis wars
(1886-1891 and 1948-1958) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars
involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)
When a crisis war ends, the country enters a new generational
Crisis era (fourth turning) 58 years after the end of the war.
In this case, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era
in 2016.
Almost on cue, Myanmar's army started committing major atrocities in
2016, and today, the next round of atrocities is apparently about to
begin.
****
**** ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
****
ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others. ASEAN
has been criticized in the past for refusing to condemn atrocities
conducted by any of its member governments, but they've maintained
their non-interference policy until now.
At an emergency meeting two weeks ago, ASEAN members agreed to exclude
Myanmar junta's chief Min Aung Hlaing from attending a regional summit
later this month, on October 26-28. This was a major snub since
nothing like it has ever happened before. The reason given is that
they didn't want to legitimize the junta as the government of Myanmar.
Instead, they said that they would invite a "non-political
representative" to represent Myanmar.
Apparently this panicked the government of Myanmar, since two days
later they released thousands of political prisoners. But it soon
became obvious that this a ploy to regain the approval of ASEAN, since
they re-arrested many of those prisoners since then. Myanmar has
angrily rejected the claims of ASEAN, blaming them on "foreign
intervention," referring to the United States. Myanmar may not have
anyone at all representing Myanmar at the meeting.
****
**** The future of Myanmar (Burma)
****
Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era (fourth turning) in 2016,
and is apparently already in a full-scale generational crisis war.
The last crisis war, from 1948 to 1958, was a massive, bloody war
involving multiple ethnic groups within Burma (Myanmar).
It now appears that Myanmar is entering a similar period. The army is
currently massing in Myanmar's northwest, but analysts I've heard say
that the army is expected to do the same in other regions of the
country.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Tom Andrews
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
- ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
- The future of Myanmar (Burma)
****
**** Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
****
Burmese troops
Ever since the military coup that took place on February 1 of this
year, the military junta of Myanmar (Burma) has been increasingly
violent. More than 1,100 civilians have been killed by Myanmar
security forces with thousands of others arrested, according to the
United Nations, involving most peaceful anti-government protesters.
Now, the military junta in Myanmar is massing tens of thousands of
troops and heavy weapons in northwest Myanmar, and talking about
"clearance operations." This is exactly the same scenario that
preceded the ferocious attacks, unspeakable violance and mass
atrocities conducted against the Rohingyas in Rakhine state in
2016-2018.
According to Tom Andrews of the United Nations:
<QUOTE>"These tactics are ominously reminiscent of those
employed by the military before its genocidal attacks against the
Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017.
We should all be prepared, as the people in this part of Myanmar
are prepared, for even more mass atrocity crimes. I desperately
hope that I am wrong."<END QUOTE>
As I've described starting with the massive demonstrations in 2007 by
the "'88 Generation," Burma's last two generational crisis wars
(1886-1891 and 1948-1958) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars
involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)
When a crisis war ends, the country enters a new generational
Crisis era (fourth turning) 58 years after the end of the war.
In this case, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era
in 2016.
Almost on cue, Myanmar's army started committing major atrocities in
2016, and today, the next round of atrocities is apparently about to
begin.
****
**** ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
****
ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others. ASEAN
has been criticized in the past for refusing to condemn atrocities
conducted by any of its member governments, but they've maintained
their non-interference policy until now.
At an emergency meeting two weeks ago, ASEAN members agreed to exclude
Myanmar junta's chief Min Aung Hlaing from attending a regional summit
later this month, on October 26-28. This was a major snub since
nothing like it has ever happened before. The reason given is that
they didn't want to legitimize the junta as the government of Myanmar.
Instead, they said that they would invite a "non-political
representative" to represent Myanmar.
Apparently this panicked the government of Myanmar, since two days
later they released thousands of political prisoners. But it soon
became obvious that this a ploy to regain the approval of ASEAN, since
they re-arrested many of those prisoners since then. Myanmar has
angrily rejected the claims of ASEAN, blaming them on "foreign
intervention," referring to the United States. Myanmar may not have
anyone at all representing Myanmar at the meeting.
****
**** The future of Myanmar (Burma)
****
Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era (fourth turning) in 2016,
and is apparently already in a full-scale generational crisis war.
The last crisis war, from 1948 to 1958, was a massive, bloody war
involving multiple ethnic groups within Burma (Myanmar).
It now appears that Myanmar is entering a similar period. The army is
currently massing in Myanmar's northwest, but analysts I've heard say
that the army is expected to do the same in other regions of the
country.
Sources:
- Myanmar: UN expert fears spike in atrocities amid reports of troops massing in north (OHCHR, United Nations, 23-Oct-2021)
- ASEAN / Myanmar decries move to block junta leader from regional summit (Reuters, 22-Oct-2021)
- ASEAN excludes Myanmar junta leader from summit in rare move (Reuters, 16-Oct-2021)
- UN fears ‘mass atrocity crimes’ in northern Myanmar (Al-Jazeera, 23-Oct-2021)
- Danger to stability in South Asia due to China’s ambitions, Sino-Pak nexus ‘anti-Indian’: Gen Rawat (Tribune India, 23-Oct-2021)
- Myanmar junta refuses to negotiate with coup dissidents (WIO, India, 23-Oct-2021)
Related Articles:
- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads (24-Jun-2021)
- Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
- Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
- Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
- Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter (26-Sep-2007)
- Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Tom Andrews
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
