Generational Dynamics World View

[nguyenivy]

(10-10-2021, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 11-Oct-21 World View -- Tensions heat up between China and Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
  
• China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
  
• Xi Jinping is running out of time
  
• China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
  
• Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
  
• The Beijing Olympics
  
• When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
  
• Moving
  

****
**** Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
****


Isabel Zhang was born in mainland China, while her husband James Xu is Taiwanese.  The Australian couple are worried about their respective families in case of war (Australian Broadcasting)

On October 10, 1911, the Wuchang Uprising began, launching the Chinese
Revolution and forming the Chinese Nationalists, led by Sun Yat-Sen.
He created the Republic of China based on his "Three Principles of the
People," developed in 1905 -- nationalism, democracy and welfare.
Later in the century, the Chinese Communists, led by Mao Zedong,
defeated the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the
Chinese civil war that climaxed in 1949.  Chiang Kai-shek and the
Chinese Nationalists fled to Formosa and formed the nation of Taiwan.
On Sunday, October 10, Taiwan celebrated the anniversary of the
uprising that led to the Republic of China.

Beijing prefers to celebrate its own China National Day on October 1,
which commemorates the creation of the People's Republic of China in
1949.  The Chinese Communists hate Taiwan's National Day, and this has
led to dueling rhetoric.

Taiwan celebrated with huge parades highlighted by military equipment.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen said the following:

   <QUOTE>"We will do our utmost to prevent the status quo from
   being unilaterally altered.

   We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate
   our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that
   nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for
   us.

   The path that China has laid out offers neither a free and
   democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23
   million people."<END QUOTE>

****
**** China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
****

During the past few days, the Chinese Communists have sent hundreds of
fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace.  China's state media
explained this aerial invasion in this way:

   <QUOTE>"According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA
   has sent warplanes into the island's "airspace" in 198 days so far
   this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out
   wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with
   battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units
   having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to
   attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced
   veterans." ...

   The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it
   did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the
   situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and
   how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the
   Chinese mainland."<END QUOTE>

Well, that's an interesting historical comparison.  They're relating
the "siege" of Taiwan to a siege that the Communists used to defeat
the Nationalists in 1949.

So the Communists say that the purpose of sending hundreds of
warplanes over Taiwan is to allow their pilots to gain experience and
become "experienced veterans."  There are two possible interpretations
of this.  One is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, and
the other is that the current incursions are merely practice for a
future invasion to occur sometime in the future.

That the Communists intend to invade Taiwan is certain.  China has
repeatedly declared the intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to
China.

Last week, as the hundreds of warplanes were threatening Taiwan,
Communist leader Xi Jinping said the following:

   <QUOTE>"Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest
   obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the
   most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation. ...

   Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with
   the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan
   compatriots. ...

   No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch
   determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national
   sovereignty and territorial integrity. The historical task of the
   complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and
   will definitely be fulfilled."<END QUOTE>

****
**** Xi Jinping is running out of time
****

Xi's problem is that, in many ways, he's running out of time, mostly
for generational reasons.

Until the 1990s, the Nationalists ruled Taiwan, and most Taiwanese
believed that it was only a matter of time before Taiwan would be
reunitied with the mainland, although many would have demanded that
the Nationalists govern the reunited country.

Since then, the survivors of the 1940s civil war have died off, and
new generations have grown and come to power.  A major turning point
was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which the citizens of Taiwan
watched with horror.  This led to the rise of the nominally
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose leader is
the current president Tsai Ing-wen.  As the new generations have come
to power, and young people displace old people, more and more people
oppose reunification.  In recent years, Beijing's brutal treatment of
Hong Kong has reinforced this opposition.  According to polls, fewer
than 10% of the people today favor reunification, and many of those
would agree to reunification only if mainland China became a
democratic country, something that's not going to happen.

So Xi Jinping is running out of time in Taiwan, but he's also running
out of time on the mainland.  Younger generations are increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and are demanding that Xi Jinping stop
stalling and take action in Taiwan.

****
**** China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
****

The one-child policy, adopted in 1979, has been a disaster for China.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized.  If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.

The policy accelerated the aging of the population, and a decline in
the working-age population, which threatens economic growth.
Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer elderly people could be cared
for by their children.  In 2015 there were eleven working age Chinese
for every retiree. By 2050, if not earlier, there will only be two for
each retiree.

In addition, parents often aborted girl babies, since they wanted
their one child to be a boy.  The result is that millions of young
males have been unable to find a wife, and so females are enticed or
coerced (kidnapped by criminal gangs) to become wives of Chinese men
who have no other options, which is raising tensions with China's
neighbors.

The result is that the number of elderly people is growing, while the
population as a whole is shrinking.  This puts a strain on the
country's pension system, and creates a constantly shrinking labor
force.  China is already finding it difficult to fill many difficult
jobs, including jobs in the military, resulting in lower GDP growth.

There are other domestic problems facing Xi Jinping.  The collapse of
Evergrande is spreading and could have far-reaching consequences,
including outside of China.  (See "25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default"
)

Internationally, China is facing criticism about its brutal crackdown
on the free press in Hong Kong, China's arrest and enslavement of
millions of Uighurs, and illegal belligerent actions in the South
China Sea.  The Chinese Communists have made it abundantly clear that
they don't care at all what others think of them, and what
international laws they violate.  What we're seeing is the
millennia-old Chinese culture saying that the rest of the world are
barbarians, and are to be treated as donkeys, with no purpose except
to serve the Chinese Communists.

****
**** Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
****

According to analysts, China would prevail in an invasion of Taiwan,
although Taiwan would inflict a great deal of damage on China at the
same time.  However, that assumes that Taiwan would fight Taiwan
alone.

By the way, to my knowledge nobody supports China's invasion of
Taiwan.  Cambodia and Pakistan are close allies with China, but I'm
not aware that they or any other country would join China in an
invasion of Taiwan.

However, there are several countries that are likely to help defend
Taiwan.

The most obvious friend is the United States, and it's debated
endlessly whether the US would defend Taiwan, or would just stand by
and allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by China.  My personal belief is
that this would constitute a "generational regeneracy" event
(regenerating civic unity behind the president), and we would be at
war with China within a few hours or days.

America has been helping Taiwan to defend itself, mainly by providing
weapons systems.  In the last few days, it was reported that about two
dozen U.S. troops have been deployed to Taiwan for at least the last
year to train local military forces to bolster the island's defenses.
The special operators have worked with Taiwanese ground troops and the
Marines have worked with maritime forces on small-boat operations.

Taiwan has other friends, most notably Japan.  As I've been writing
for years, China has been thirsting for a war with Japan in revenge
for the atrocities (chemical warfare, rape of Nanking) committed by
Japan on China during World War II.  Furthermore, and nationalism and
xenophobia have increased in both countries, and there are now signs
that the Japanese are thirsting for a new war with the Chinese.  It
shouldn't take long for both thirsts to be quenched.

One trigger for a Japanese war with China would be a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan.  Although Japan has a "pacifist" constitution, in 2015 the
law was reinterpreted to permit Japanese forces to defend an ally
(Taiwan or the US) as "collective self-defense," provided that Japan's
government determined that the war was a security threat that
threatened Japan's own survival.  For example, the Japanese might view
the invasion of Taiwan as a stepping-stone to a planned invasion of
Japan.  (See "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China"
)

Beyond Japan, there is also the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,
linking the United States, Japan, India and Australia, This grouping
does not have any military commitments, but it will hold talks to
"hold China accountable."

****
**** The Beijing Olympics
****

The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will begin on Friday, February 4,
and end on Sunday, February 20.  This is an interesting milepost in
the discussions of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

On the one hand, the Olympics games are a matter of enormous
prestige for the Chinese Communists, and they would not want to
besmirch the games by an untoward event, like a major war.  This suggests
that any planned invasion of Taiwan would have to come after February 20.

On the other hand, it's expected that there will be substantial
boycotts of the games, for two reasons.  One reason is that China is
actively committing genocide, ethnic cleansing and enslavement of
millions of Muslim Uighurs, and many people will boycott in protest.
The second reason is that China kidnaps and jails foreigners without
charges in order to gain political advantage, in a policy known as
"hostage diplomacy," and many people want to stay away from China for
fear of being held hostage to some political dispute.

****
**** When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
****

Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen both upped rhetoric this past week, in
celebration of the "National Days" for China and Taiwan, respectively,
with China going much farther by launching hundreds of warplanes to
fly over Taiwan.

There is enormous and growing pressure on Xi Jinping to do something
to solve the Taiwan problem.  However, I agree with those analysts who
say that Xi cannot risk an invasion at this time (or at any time,
really) because the results would be too unpredictable and potentially
catastrophic.  So you have the "pressure cooker" analogy, where you
don't know when the pressure will be too great, but you know that the
pressure has to blow at some point.  Or maybe you prefer the "straw
that breaks the camel's back" analogy where you know that if you keep
piling on straw, then eventually a straw will break the camel's back,
though you don't know in advance which one.

As I've written in the past, crisis wars begin with a chaotic
unexpected event.  World War I began because a 12-year-old high school
student decided in 1914 that it would be fun to shoot an Archduke.  WW
II began in 1937 because a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods.  Those wars were a complete surprise, even to the
belligerents.  That's how WW III will begin.  It will be totally
irrational, insane and unexpected, and it could happen any day.

****
**** Moving
****

During the last two weeks, I've been moved to a new apartment, and I
still can't figure out where many things are in the new apartment.  At
the same time, my computer's hard disk crashed, though fortunately I
had everything backed up.  All of this has been extremely
overwhelming, and it turns out that at age 77 it's even more so, when
everything happens at once.

So anyway, anyone who wants to contact me by snail mail should use my
new address, which is the same as my old address, except for the
apartment number:

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China mounts largest incursion yet near Taiwan, blames U.S. for tensions (Reuters, 4-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of PLA warplanes flying over Taiwan Straits as form of National Day ‘military parade’ (Global Times, Beijing, 3-Oct-2021)
  
• The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan says it's 'on alert' amid China air incursions (Deutche Welle, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of China planes enter Taiwan air defence zone (BBC, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan marks ‘national day’ today under looming shadow of China (Hindustan Times, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan rejects China's 'path' amid show of military force (AP, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping vows to fulfil Taiwan ‘reunification’ with China by peaceful means (Guardian, London, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping Warns World to Butt Out of 'Taiwan Question' (Newser, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Chinese President Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan is in country’s best interests (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan (Reuters, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan won't be forced to bow to China, president says (Reuters, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• There's talk of the threat of war between China and Taiwan, and it's impacting Asian Australians (Australian Broadcasting, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Attrition: Revising Chinese History As It Happens (Strategy Page, 28-May-2021)
  
• China Slams [former PM Tony] Abbott Warning It Could 'Lash Out Disastrously' Over Taiwan as Xi Vows Reunification (Australian Broadcasting, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Canberra’s provocative actions over Taiwan may render irreparable damage to China-Australia relations (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan’s Tsai turns to masters for help out of fear of catastrophic consequences: Global Times editorial (Global Times, Beijing, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Recognize That China Has Huge Demographic Problems (Forbes, 25-Mar-2021)
  
• US troops deployed to Taiwan to train local forces amid growing tensions with China, report says (Stars And Stripes, 7-Oct-2021)
  
• Deflation Threat Looms As China Suffers First Population Decline Since 1949 (Zero Hedge, 27-Apr-2021)
  
• Japan Sees China-Taiwan Friction as Threat to Its Security (Bloomberg, 24-Jun-2021)
  

Related Articles:

• Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China (28-Jun-2021)
  
  
• China Evergrande construction firm heads to default (25-Sep-2021)
  
  
• China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan (24-Jul-2021)
  
  
• China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability (16-Sep-2021)
  
  
• ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet (17-Sep-2021)
  
  
• The Afghanistan catastrophe (23-Aug-2021)
  
  
• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
Sun Yat-Sen,  Wuchang Uprising, Chinese Revolution,
Republic of China, Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong,
one-child policy, Japan, Australia, India,
Beijing Olympics, hostage diplomacy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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I thought World War II began in September 1939, not 1937. Did historians revise the date based on new information about that time?