11-01-2021, 07:42 PM
*** 2-Nov-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
****
![[Image: g211101b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g211101b.jpg)
ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy)
When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance
operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in
2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were
like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire
villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot
down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist
act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across
the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still
live in refugee camps.
As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing
troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about
"clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a
sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin
people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter"
)
The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun
"clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military
shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings,
including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save
the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was
“deliberately set ablaze.”
So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past.
Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the
fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid
enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own
villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now.
However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas
versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas
simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are
fighting back.
According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of
Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers
looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of
simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters,
mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to
their claims, which are probably exaggerated.
However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in
a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban
underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to
reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their
grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to
1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to
fight, where the Rohingyas were not.
As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational
Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war.
(See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads"
)
Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and
belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and
ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other
ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is
turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that
ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History
is now repeating itself.
****
**** ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar
****
ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even
when the member governments committed atrocities.
ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the
biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung
Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking
move by the organization, which has previously made a point
of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states.
ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain
relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments
that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized.
In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time
ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the
disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship
was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of
China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse,
or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines
objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a
great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on
China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting"
)
More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been
challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the
so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the
United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is
the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will
help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has
triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since
Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines
from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying
France.)
Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with
the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially
Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it
remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Philippines,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Quad, Australia, India, Japan, ANKUS, UK, France
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
- ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar
****
**** Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
****
ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy)
When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance
operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in
2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were
like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire
villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot
down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist
act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across
the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still
live in refugee camps.
As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing
troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about
"clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a
sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin
people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter"
)
The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun
"clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military
shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings,
including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save
the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was
“deliberately set ablaze.”
So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past.
Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the
fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid
enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own
villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now.
However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas
versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas
simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are
fighting back.
According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of
Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers
looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of
simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters,
mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to
their claims, which are probably exaggerated.
However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in
a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban
underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to
reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their
grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to
1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to
fight, where the Rohingyas were not.
As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational
Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war.
(See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads"
)
Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and
belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and
ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other
ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is
turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that
ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History
is now repeating itself.
****
**** ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar
****
ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even
when the member governments committed atrocities.
ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the
biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung
Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking
move by the organization, which has previously made a point
of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states.
ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain
relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments
that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized.
In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time
ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the
disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship
was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of
China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse,
or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines
objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a
great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on
China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting"
)
More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been
challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the
so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the
United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is
the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will
help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has
triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since
Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines
from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying
France.)
Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with
the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially
Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it
remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant.
Sources:
- Rebels fighting Myanmar’s junta are doing better than expected (Economist, 30-Oct-2021)
- Another 25 Myanmar Junta Soldiers Killed in Upcountry Clashes (The Irawaddy, Myanmar, 29-Oct-2021)
- After Standing Up to Myanmar Military, What Next for ASEAN? (The Irawaddy, Myanmar, 30-Oct-2021)
- ASEAN summits bring wins but leave big questions on Myanmar, unity (Nikkei, 29-Oct-2021)
- Army shelling in Myanmar blamed for setting 160 homes ablaze (AP, 29-Oct-2021)
- Asean in uncharted waters as it snubs Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Oct-2021)
- U.S. concerned over Myanmar army operations in Chin state, town ablaze (Reuters, 1-Nov-2021)
- National Unity Gov / ASEAN urged to take ‘decisive step’ by recognising Myanmar’s NUG (Al-Jazeera, 27-Oct-2021)
- UN envoy says ‘civil war’ has spread throughout Myanmar (AP, 27-Oct-2021)
- Opinion: Time to support democracy in Myanmar (NewIndianExpress, 1-Nov-2021)
Related Articles:
- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads (24-Jun-2021)
- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet (17-Sep-2021)
- Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
- Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
- Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting (21-Nov-2012)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Philippines,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Quad, Australia, India, Japan, ANKUS, UK, France
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
