11-07-2021, 08:31 PM
*** 8-Nov-21 World View -- Pro- and Anti-Iran violence grows in Iraq as PM survives assassination attempt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
****
![[Image: g211107b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g211107b.jpg)
Riots in Baghdad on Friday
Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination
attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones
attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a
third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards.
Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily
fortified "Green Zone."
The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday,
where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October
10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only
17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament.
Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone
attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because
Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border
with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that
the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility
for the failed drone attacks.
****
**** Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
****
Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the
1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those
wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against
the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the
1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and
bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale
missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and
refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)")
Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance
of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are
still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain
political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have
triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq.
Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when
Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the
country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the
Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats.
****
**** Growing anti-Iran riots
****
However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September
2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran.
Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the
Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging
to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war"
)
In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests,
this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms,
and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government
that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious
sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a
particular focus on Iran.
So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the
pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had
gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political
alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held.
So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in
October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were
protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by
Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that
last month's parliamentary elections were rigged.
****
**** Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists
****
The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to
be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73
seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly
respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during
the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention,
including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey.
With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's
violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one
analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10
election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a
governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those
negotiations to end.
There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one
side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the
meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government
to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the
Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will
continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that
America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans
are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the
disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Mustafa al-Kadhimi,
Fatah Alliance, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMFs,
Iraqi Revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Basra,
Muqtada al-Sadr, Sadrists
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
- Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
- Growing anti-Iran riots
- Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists
****
**** Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
****
Riots in Baghdad on Friday
Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination
attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones
attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a
third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards.
Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily
fortified "Green Zone."
The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday,
where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October
10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only
17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament.
Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone
attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because
Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border
with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that
the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility
for the failed drone attacks.
****
**** Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
****
Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the
1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those
wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against
the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the
1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and
bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale
missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and
refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)")
Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance
of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are
still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain
political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have
triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq.
Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when
Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the
country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the
Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats.
****
**** Growing anti-Iran riots
****
However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September
2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran.
Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the
Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging
to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war"
)
In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests,
this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms,
and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government
that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious
sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a
particular focus on Iran.
So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the
pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had
gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political
alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held.
So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in
October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were
protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by
Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that
last month's parliamentary elections were rigged.
****
**** Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists
****
The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to
be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73
seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly
respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during
the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention,
including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey.
With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's
violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one
analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10
election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a
governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those
negotiations to end.
There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one
side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the
meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government
to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the
Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will
continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that
America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans
are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the
disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Sources:
- Mustafa al-Kadhimi / Pro-Iran militias mock drone attack on Iraqi PM’s residence (Rudaw, 7-Nov-2021)
- Iraq PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi survives ‘assassination attempt’ (Al-Jazeera, 7-Nov-2021)
- Iraqi PM safe after drone attack on residence, military says (Reuters, 7-Nov-2021)
- Zeidon Alkinani / Tishreen’s Interaction With Iraq’s Early Elections (2021) (Iram Center, 20-Oct-2021)
- Zeidon Alkinani / Beyond the Parallels, Iraq’s Direct Repercussions from Afghanistan (Iram Center, 13-Sep-2021)
Related Articles:
- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury (31-Dec-2019)
- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread (29-Nov-2019)
- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq (03-Nov-2019)
- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
- Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Mustafa al-Kadhimi,
Fatah Alliance, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMFs,
Iraqi Revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Basra,
Muqtada al-Sadr, Sadrists
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
