12-24-2021, 09:31 PM
*** 25-Dec-21 World View -- Merry Christmas! America plays Santa to keep Europe from freezing
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy
****
![[Image: kerch2.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/kerch2.gif)
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Putin may next be planning to invade the seaports Mariupol and Berdyansk, in order to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea
Merry Christmas, everyone! There's peace in Europe right now, but we
don't know how long it will last.
The drama is growing on Russia's border with Ukraine, where Russia now
has over 120,000 troops, along with tanks and other military
equipment, apparently in preparation for an imminent invasion of
Ukraine. Vladimir Putin says that the US and Nato are to blame for
the hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with Ukraine, which
is typical of the garbage that comes out every time Putin opens his
mouth. Putin claims that there are no invasion plans, but Putin would
say that, no matter what his plans. Putin is following the exact same
playbook that he followed in 2014, when he illegally invaded eastern
Ukraine, and he illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, after claiming
he wouldn't do so.
However, there's a very interesting and amusing sub-plot to the
current drama, where American energy firms are playing Santa Claus to
keep Europe from freezing to death, despite the efforts of Grinch
Putin.
Starting last weekend, flows of natural gas from Russia into Europe
have been falling, depriving the Europeans of the natural gas needed
to heat their homes. By Tuesday, European gas prices had spiked 40%
to an all-time historic high. Freezing temperatures across Europe,
low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany all
combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records.
It's not known whether Russia capped gas flows because of a shortage
of gas in Russia, or because Putin wants to use extortion to force the
EU to accede to his demands on Ukraine.
Part of the geopolitical situation is that Putin wants Germany to
approve a new pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This is important
because much of Russia's gas flow to Europe currently comes through a
pipeline that passes through Ukraine, forcing Russia to pay
commissions to Ukraine. Once the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is approved,
then Russia can bypass Ukraine, and end the payments.
****
**** American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe
****
The situation has pushed European gas prices way above Asian prices,
and 14 times higher than prices in the US. As a result, a flotilla of
at least 30 LNG (liquified natural gas) tankers from American energy
firms have been or are being diverted from Asia to Europe.
As a result, gas prices in Europe fell over 20% on Friday. The fall
in gas prices was helped by forecasts of warmer weather on Friday
through Monday.
America's Santa Claus flotilla is expected to keep European gas
prices down for several weeks, but it's a temporary fix. By
summer, at the latest, gas prices are expected to spike once again.
****
**** Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy
****
Europe's energy problems are substantially exacerbated by the
climate change chaos going on in Europe, which is pitting
Germany and France against each other.
France is first in the world in its reliance on nuclear energy. But
France was forced to shut down two nuclear power plants last week,
because of potential safety faults. The shut down reactors accounted
for 10% of the nation's nuclear capacity, straining the nation's
power grids in the cold weather. This has led a desperate president
Emmanuel Macron to approve the firing up of six oil-fired power plants
on Tuesday morning.
Macron has previously stated his commitment to "green energy," meaning
wind and solar, and so many people were shocked last month when he
announced in a televised speech, "For the first time in decades
[France] will relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors."
Macron’s government argues that investments in nuclear power will
allow France to keep energy costs in check, while meeting its climate
goals.
Macron's announcement infuriated the anti-nuclear activists in
Germany. Germany has no such political disputes, because Germany is
producing energy by burning coal, flooding the atmosphere with
pollutants and emissions. Indeed, the country continues to raze
villages to make way for new coal mines.
Nuclear power plants produce "clean energy," with no carbon emissions,
but activists claim that they're too dangerous. However, pro-nuclear
activists point out that far more people die from air pollution in
Germany than could ever die from a nuclear power plant meltdown.
After the meltdown in 2011 of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in
Japan, Germany has banned further nuclear development. Germany,
Denmark and Austria are fiercely opposed to any further building of
nuclear-power plants, or of designating nuclear energy as
"climate-friendly."
****
**** The outlook in Europe
****
America's Santa Claus flotilla of LNG tankers may keep the
Europeans from freezing this winter. At least, the LNG shipments
will help keep gas prices down so that Europeans can afford
to heat their homes.
But the big question in Europe is Putin's apparent plans to invade
Ukraine. He claims that he has no plans to do so, but he would say
that no matter what he plans, and he keeps massing more and more
troops and military equipment on the border.
So it would be quite surprising if Europe got through the
next few months unscathed.
Sources:/
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
Santa Claus, Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Germany,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Japan, Fukushima,
Denmark, Austria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy
- American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe
- Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy
- The outlook in Europe
****
**** Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy
****
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Putin may next be planning to invade the seaports Mariupol and Berdyansk, in order to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea
Merry Christmas, everyone! There's peace in Europe right now, but we
don't know how long it will last.
The drama is growing on Russia's border with Ukraine, where Russia now
has over 120,000 troops, along with tanks and other military
equipment, apparently in preparation for an imminent invasion of
Ukraine. Vladimir Putin says that the US and Nato are to blame for
the hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with Ukraine, which
is typical of the garbage that comes out every time Putin opens his
mouth. Putin claims that there are no invasion plans, but Putin would
say that, no matter what his plans. Putin is following the exact same
playbook that he followed in 2014, when he illegally invaded eastern
Ukraine, and he illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, after claiming
he wouldn't do so.
However, there's a very interesting and amusing sub-plot to the
current drama, where American energy firms are playing Santa Claus to
keep Europe from freezing to death, despite the efforts of Grinch
Putin.
Starting last weekend, flows of natural gas from Russia into Europe
have been falling, depriving the Europeans of the natural gas needed
to heat their homes. By Tuesday, European gas prices had spiked 40%
to an all-time historic high. Freezing temperatures across Europe,
low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany all
combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records.
It's not known whether Russia capped gas flows because of a shortage
of gas in Russia, or because Putin wants to use extortion to force the
EU to accede to his demands on Ukraine.
Part of the geopolitical situation is that Putin wants Germany to
approve a new pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This is important
because much of Russia's gas flow to Europe currently comes through a
pipeline that passes through Ukraine, forcing Russia to pay
commissions to Ukraine. Once the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is approved,
then Russia can bypass Ukraine, and end the payments.
****
**** American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe
****
The situation has pushed European gas prices way above Asian prices,
and 14 times higher than prices in the US. As a result, a flotilla of
at least 30 LNG (liquified natural gas) tankers from American energy
firms have been or are being diverted from Asia to Europe.
As a result, gas prices in Europe fell over 20% on Friday. The fall
in gas prices was helped by forecasts of warmer weather on Friday
through Monday.
America's Santa Claus flotilla is expected to keep European gas
prices down for several weeks, but it's a temporary fix. By
summer, at the latest, gas prices are expected to spike once again.
****
**** Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy
****
Europe's energy problems are substantially exacerbated by the
climate change chaos going on in Europe, which is pitting
Germany and France against each other.
France is first in the world in its reliance on nuclear energy. But
France was forced to shut down two nuclear power plants last week,
because of potential safety faults. The shut down reactors accounted
for 10% of the nation's nuclear capacity, straining the nation's
power grids in the cold weather. This has led a desperate president
Emmanuel Macron to approve the firing up of six oil-fired power plants
on Tuesday morning.
Macron has previously stated his commitment to "green energy," meaning
wind and solar, and so many people were shocked last month when he
announced in a televised speech, "For the first time in decades
[France] will relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors."
Macron’s government argues that investments in nuclear power will
allow France to keep energy costs in check, while meeting its climate
goals.
Macron's announcement infuriated the anti-nuclear activists in
Germany. Germany has no such political disputes, because Germany is
producing energy by burning coal, flooding the atmosphere with
pollutants and emissions. Indeed, the country continues to raze
villages to make way for new coal mines.
Nuclear power plants produce "clean energy," with no carbon emissions,
but activists claim that they're too dangerous. However, pro-nuclear
activists point out that far more people die from air pollution in
Germany than could ever die from a nuclear power plant meltdown.
After the meltdown in 2011 of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in
Japan, Germany has banned further nuclear development. Germany,
Denmark and Austria are fiercely opposed to any further building of
nuclear-power plants, or of designating nuclear energy as
"climate-friendly."
****
**** The outlook in Europe
****
America's Santa Claus flotilla of LNG tankers may keep the
Europeans from freezing this winter. At least, the LNG shipments
will help keep gas prices down so that Europeans can afford
to heat their homes.
But the big question in Europe is Putin's apparent plans to invade
Ukraine. He claims that he has no plans to do so, but he would say
that no matter what he plans, and he keeps massing more and more
troops and military equipment on the border.
So it would be quite surprising if Europe got through the
next few months unscathed.
Sources:/
- Europe’s Gas Prices Jump To Record As Key Pipeline From Russia Halts Flows (OilPrice.com, 24-Dec-2021)
- U.S. LNG Cargoes Flock To Europe Amid Record-High Gas Prices (OilPrice.com, 23-Dec-2021)
- A Flotilla of U.S. LNG Cargoes Is Headed to Fuel-Starved Europe (Bloomberg, 22-Dec-2021)
- EUROPE GAS-Prices extend downward trend on warmer weather, LNG arrivals (Reuters, 24-Dec-2021)
- EUROPE GAS-Prices dip on LNG supply boost, warmer temperatures (Hellenic Shipping News, 24-Dec-2021)
- Macron faces dire situation as Belgium blindsides France and shuts all nuclear plants (Express, London, 24-Dec-2021)
- Macron 'struggles to keep lights on' as France turns back on green energy in desperate bid (Express, London, 22-Dec-2021)
- Is nuclear energy green? France and Germany lead opposing camps. (Washington Post, 18-Dec-2021)
- Germany portrays itself as a climate leader. But it’s still razing villages for coal mines. (Washington Post, 23-Oct-2021)
Related Articles:
- Russia launches its massive disinformation campaign (14-Oct-2015)
- Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
- Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia (12-Oct-2018)
- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
- UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
Santa Claus, Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Germany,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Japan, Fukushima,
Denmark, Austria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
