01-07-2022, 10:48 PM
*** 8-Jan-22 World View -- Kazakhstan protests threaten Russia-China stability in Central Asia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning
****
![[Image: g220107b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g220107b.jpg)
Kazakhstan map (BBC)
Protests began in western Kazakhstan over the weekend, and were
triggered by the removal of government fuel subsidies and the
resulting price rises. However, the protests spread quickly, across
the country and over numerous other issues related to government
corruption. The result is the worst riots since the country became
independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union Empire in 1991.
Kazakhstan was ruled since independence by a dictator, ex-president
Nursultan Nazarbayev, who selected his successor, Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev, in 2019. Nazarbayev has remained head of the country's
Security Council after stepping down as president in 2019. Both
Nazarbayev and Tokayev were and are unpopular and thought to be
corrupt. There were widespread anti-government farmer riots in 2016
when the government announced a "land reform" program that would have
permitted China's agriculture businesses to buy up huge tracts of
Kazakh land. Because of the protests, the "reforms" were never
implemented. (See "22-May-16 World View -- Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China"
)
In the last week, protesters have attacked a military barracks, and
also brought down a monument of the former president Nazarbayev. The
2016 protests were brutally oppressed by Nazarbayev, and now the new
protests, which are far more widespread and dangerous, are being
suppressed by Tokayev, who has issued a "shoot to kill without
warning" order to the police. Dozens of people have already been
killed.
****
**** Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan
****
President Tokayev has declared a state of emergency, and has shut down
the internet and other communications.
At the invitation of president Tokayev, Russian troops are now
entering Kazakhstan to help quell the protests. It's not clear what
these troops will do in a country as enormous as Kazakhstan, but
presumably they'll concentrate on Almaty, the largest city.
It's not just Russian troops. Tokayev made the request through the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led
military alliance which was formed in the 1990s as a counterweight to
Nato. This is the first time that the CSTO is deploying troops on
foreign soil since the organization was formed. So there are now
troops from five foreign countries on Kazakh soil: Russia, Belarus,
Armenia, Tajijistan and Kyrgyzstan.
According to the CSTO charter, one CSTO member may send troops to
another member country only in the case of "foreign interference." No
details of this "foreign interference" have been provided, but I heard
one report that both Russian and Kazakh officials are blaming "Muslim
jihadist terrorists," without providing evidence.
According to several reports that I've heard, this deployment of
foreign troops is not very popular with anyone.
Many Kazakhs are opposed to any foreign troops on their soil. The
Armenians are really furious that Russia didn't help them out in the
Nagorno-Karabakh war with Azerbaijan, and now Armenian troops are
being deployed to Kazakhstan. The Tajiks are unhappy with the
deployment of their soldiers, and the Kyrgyzstan government is so
concerned about the situation that they've closed their border with
Kazakhstan.
There is one region of Kazakhstan that's certain to be under the
protection of Russian troops, and that's the city of Baikonur which is
the home of Baikonur spaceport. All Russian space flights are
launched from Baikonur spaceport. According to Dmitry Rogozin, the
head of the Russian state space agency, "Today it was calm at
Baikonur. The branches of Roscosmos’ enterprises, law enforcement
agencies, city services and organizations are working as normal. The
crisis center set up at Baikonur’s administration is fully controlling
the situation in the city. Armed security at the cosmodrome’s key
facilities has been boosted."
While all this is going on in Kazakhstan, Russia is also continuing
its buildup of troops along the border of Ukraine. Will Russia invade
Ukraine again this month? We'll have to wait and see.
****
**** China versus Russia
****
Kazakhstan is a mostly Sunni Muslim country, with Kazakhs having the
same Turkic ethnicity as the Turks, the Azerbaijanis, and the Chinese
Uighurs. Kazakhs in China's Xinjiang province (East Turkestan) are
subjected to the same torture, beatings, sterilization and enslavement
as the Uighurs. Kazakhstan is a kind of poster-child for China's use
of money to gain compliance for the worst atrocities since the Nazis
in the 1930s. Kazakhstan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni
Muslim countries are simply ignoring China's torture and enslavement
of their Turkic brothers, because China is bribing them to do so.
Nonetheless, it's hard to escape the view that Russian troops in
Kazakhstan are less about unnamed Muslim jihadists and more about
China. Kazakhstan is rich in oil, gas, copper, and other commodities,
and China has invested billions of dollars since independence to buy
them.
Furthermore, as I've described in the past, China has 20 border
disputes with its neighbors. This includes claiming 34,000 sq km of
Kazakhstan's territory, and also claiming much of Russia's Far East,
including Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, (See "5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements"
)
As I've described many times, Russia and China are historic enemies,
at war most recently in the 1960s. They currently have a kind of
"marriage of convenience" in opposition to the United States and West,
who oppose their respective threatened invasions of Ukraine and
Taiwan.
But it won't be long before the historic differences turn to new
disagreements and war. Russia's sending troops into Kazakhstan, with
little or no information about their mission, may well be first step
in that development.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Almaty,
Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,
China, Russia, Soviet Union,
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan,
Baikonur spaceport, Ukraine, Turkey, Vladivostok
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning
- Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan
- China versus Russia
****
**** Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning
****
Kazakhstan map (BBC)
Protests began in western Kazakhstan over the weekend, and were
triggered by the removal of government fuel subsidies and the
resulting price rises. However, the protests spread quickly, across
the country and over numerous other issues related to government
corruption. The result is the worst riots since the country became
independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union Empire in 1991.
Kazakhstan was ruled since independence by a dictator, ex-president
Nursultan Nazarbayev, who selected his successor, Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev, in 2019. Nazarbayev has remained head of the country's
Security Council after stepping down as president in 2019. Both
Nazarbayev and Tokayev were and are unpopular and thought to be
corrupt. There were widespread anti-government farmer riots in 2016
when the government announced a "land reform" program that would have
permitted China's agriculture businesses to buy up huge tracts of
Kazakh land. Because of the protests, the "reforms" were never
implemented. (See "22-May-16 World View -- Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China"
)
In the last week, protesters have attacked a military barracks, and
also brought down a monument of the former president Nazarbayev. The
2016 protests were brutally oppressed by Nazarbayev, and now the new
protests, which are far more widespread and dangerous, are being
suppressed by Tokayev, who has issued a "shoot to kill without
warning" order to the police. Dozens of people have already been
killed.
****
**** Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan
****
President Tokayev has declared a state of emergency, and has shut down
the internet and other communications.
At the invitation of president Tokayev, Russian troops are now
entering Kazakhstan to help quell the protests. It's not clear what
these troops will do in a country as enormous as Kazakhstan, but
presumably they'll concentrate on Almaty, the largest city.
It's not just Russian troops. Tokayev made the request through the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led
military alliance which was formed in the 1990s as a counterweight to
Nato. This is the first time that the CSTO is deploying troops on
foreign soil since the organization was formed. So there are now
troops from five foreign countries on Kazakh soil: Russia, Belarus,
Armenia, Tajijistan and Kyrgyzstan.
According to the CSTO charter, one CSTO member may send troops to
another member country only in the case of "foreign interference." No
details of this "foreign interference" have been provided, but I heard
one report that both Russian and Kazakh officials are blaming "Muslim
jihadist terrorists," without providing evidence.
According to several reports that I've heard, this deployment of
foreign troops is not very popular with anyone.
Many Kazakhs are opposed to any foreign troops on their soil. The
Armenians are really furious that Russia didn't help them out in the
Nagorno-Karabakh war with Azerbaijan, and now Armenian troops are
being deployed to Kazakhstan. The Tajiks are unhappy with the
deployment of their soldiers, and the Kyrgyzstan government is so
concerned about the situation that they've closed their border with
Kazakhstan.
There is one region of Kazakhstan that's certain to be under the
protection of Russian troops, and that's the city of Baikonur which is
the home of Baikonur spaceport. All Russian space flights are
launched from Baikonur spaceport. According to Dmitry Rogozin, the
head of the Russian state space agency, "Today it was calm at
Baikonur. The branches of Roscosmos’ enterprises, law enforcement
agencies, city services and organizations are working as normal. The
crisis center set up at Baikonur’s administration is fully controlling
the situation in the city. Armed security at the cosmodrome’s key
facilities has been boosted."
While all this is going on in Kazakhstan, Russia is also continuing
its buildup of troops along the border of Ukraine. Will Russia invade
Ukraine again this month? We'll have to wait and see.
****
**** China versus Russia
****
Kazakhstan is a mostly Sunni Muslim country, with Kazakhs having the
same Turkic ethnicity as the Turks, the Azerbaijanis, and the Chinese
Uighurs. Kazakhs in China's Xinjiang province (East Turkestan) are
subjected to the same torture, beatings, sterilization and enslavement
as the Uighurs. Kazakhstan is a kind of poster-child for China's use
of money to gain compliance for the worst atrocities since the Nazis
in the 1930s. Kazakhstan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni
Muslim countries are simply ignoring China's torture and enslavement
of their Turkic brothers, because China is bribing them to do so.
Nonetheless, it's hard to escape the view that Russian troops in
Kazakhstan are less about unnamed Muslim jihadists and more about
China. Kazakhstan is rich in oil, gas, copper, and other commodities,
and China has invested billions of dollars since independence to buy
them.
Furthermore, as I've described in the past, China has 20 border
disputes with its neighbors. This includes claiming 34,000 sq km of
Kazakhstan's territory, and also claiming much of Russia's Far East,
including Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, (See "5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements"
)
As I've described many times, Russia and China are historic enemies,
at war most recently in the 1960s. They currently have a kind of
"marriage of convenience" in opposition to the United States and West,
who oppose their respective threatened invasions of Ukraine and
Taiwan.
But it won't be long before the historic differences turn to new
disagreements and war. Russia's sending troops into Kazakhstan, with
little or no information about their mission, may well be first step
in that development.
Sources:
- CSTO Deploys to Kazakhstan at Tokayev’s Request (The Diplomat, 6-Jan-2022)
- The Consequences Of Inviting Russian-Led CSTO Troops Into Kazakhstan (Rferl, 6-Jan-2022)
- CSTO agrees to intervene in Kazakhstan unrest (Eurasianet, 6-Jan-2022)
- Armenians take dim view of deployment to Kazakhstan (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan: Shoot to kill protesters, orders tough-talking Tokayev (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
- What does China make of the Kazakhstan unrest? (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
- Kyrgyzstan sends troops to Kazakhstan, but not everybody is happy (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
- CSTO to send peacekeeping troops to help quell unrest in Kazakhstan (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Jan-2022)
- Mandatory Vaccinations: A Key Under Reported Reason For The Revolt In Kazakhstan (Red Pill Reality, 5-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan unrest: Dozens killed in crackdown (BBC, 6-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan unrest: Troops ordered to fire without warning (BBC, 7-Jan-2022)
- Kazakh president: Forces can shoot to kill to quell unrest (AP, 7-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan unrest: what are the protests about? (Guardian, London, 6-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan unrest latest updates: Russia-led troops arrive (Al-Jazeera, 6-Jan-2022)
- Anti-China protests / Land Protests Testify to Kazakhstan’s Internal Vulnerability (Jamestown, 16-May-2016)
- Security at Baikonur spaceport’s key facilities tightened, Roscosmos chief says (Tass, Moscow, 5-Jan-2022)
- How Kazakhstan could shift Putin’s calculus on Ukraine (Atlantic Council, 6-Jan-2022)
- Kazakhstan / The Coming Russian-Chinese Clash (National Interest, 21-Aug-2020)
Related Articles:
- Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China (22-May-2016)
- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive (07-Jul-2021)
- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability (03-May-2021)
- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements (05-Jul-2020)
- Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers' (25-Jul-2018)
- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan (28-Apr-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Almaty,
Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,
China, Russia, Soviet Union,
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan,
Baikonur spaceport, Ukraine, Turkey, Vladivostok
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
