01-18-2022, 09:57 PM
*** 19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
****
![[Image: g220118b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g220118b.jpg)
Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters)
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday evening attacked
targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including airports in Dubai
and in an oil refinery in Musaffah, as well as "a number of important
and sensitive Emirati sites and facilities," with five missiles and a
number of drones. Three people were killed.
Early on Tuesday, warplanes from Saudi Arabia, UAE's coalition
partner, attacked Houthi camps and strongholds in Sanaa, Yemen's
capital city, including he home of a high-ranking Houthi military
official, including his wife and son. About 20 people were killed,
according to the Houthis.
The Yemen war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took
control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international
airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by
Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets.
The war escalated substantially in November 2017, when the
Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran,
that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about
800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own
escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports.
The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then
in June 2018, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on the highly strategic Port Hodeidah in Yemen.
The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian
weapons to the Houthis, as well as a source of income.
The battle over Port Hodeidah continued for years, until November
2021, when the Houthis scored a complete takeover of the port,
marking an important turning point in the war. Tuesday's Houthi
attack on the UAE targets with drones and missiles marks another
turning point.
****
**** Iran's support for the Houthis
****
Since the Yemen war began in 2015, it's been seen as largely a proxy
war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. In the wars between
Sunnis and Shias the following the death of the prophet Mohammed, one
Shia sect was known as the Saydis or "fivers," because of their
allegiance to the fifth Imam descendant. Most Shias, including the
Persians, had allegiance to the twelth Imam descendant, and so they
are sometimes called "twelvers." The Zaydis have become today's
Houthis. Despite this theological dispute, the fivers and the
twelvers identify with each other as not-Sunni Shias, and so the
Iranians are supporting the Houthis in Yemen in a proxy war against
the Arab Sunnis. (See my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy," for the history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.)
Iran is denying that they've had anything to do with Tuesday's
attack by the Houthis on the UAE. However, this claim has
little credibility since the Houthis have no ability to develop
and manufacture the drones and missiles that were used in the
attack.
It seems likely that the Houthis' recent takeover of Port Hodeidah has
enabled the Houthi attack, because Iran can use the port to smuggle
drones and missiles and other weapons to the Houthis. Two weeks ago,
a UN group announced that it would be investigating whether the port
has been militarized
According to Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen:
<QUOTE>"The accusations of the militarization of the ports of
Hodeidah are worrying and the threats of attacking them are
equally disturbing given that these ports are a lifeline for many
Yemenis. [The UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement was]
closely monitoring the situation in the ports and has requested
as part of its mandate to undertake an inspection."<END QUOTE>
Well, we can hardly wait until the UN report comes out. These
UN committees always produce useful results, don't they.
****
**** The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE
****
What is the purpose of the Houthi attack on UAE targets? Here
are some possibilities:
Each one of these objectives is likely to backfire.
Houthi Yemeni military expert Brigadier-General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi
was interviewd on Monday by Russia Today TV, and said the
following:
<QUOTE>"We sent a message [with the Abu Dhabi drone
strike], and the UAE should take this message seriously. The UAE is
not like Saudi Arabia, which is bigger in size, and which can perhaps,
take the hit and absorb the shock. The UAE is a country made of
cardboard and glass. ...
The second thing is that we hope to receive Iranian weapons, and
to have Iranian experts with us. [Our enemies] have Zionist
experts, as well as American and French experts, They have
gathered all of the world's vagabonds in their command center and
in the battlefield. ...
We have the power, the will, and the determination to strike in
the UAE and in Saudi Arabia. If it turns out that the Americans
attacked in Yemen, or if they declare that they did, we will
target the American interests wherever they may be. Wherever they
may be!"<END QUOTE>
Right now, there's a bit of a lull, as both the UAE and the Houthis
decide what to do next. If this is as much of a turning point
as it seems, then we should see some additional military reactions
soon.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there
is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis"
of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major
new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of
1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part
of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus
Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Port Hodeidah, Zaydis, Fivers, Twelvers,
Hans Grundberg, Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
- Iran's support for the Houthis
- The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE
****
**** Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
****
Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters)
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday evening attacked
targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including airports in Dubai
and in an oil refinery in Musaffah, as well as "a number of important
and sensitive Emirati sites and facilities," with five missiles and a
number of drones. Three people were killed.
Early on Tuesday, warplanes from Saudi Arabia, UAE's coalition
partner, attacked Houthi camps and strongholds in Sanaa, Yemen's
capital city, including he home of a high-ranking Houthi military
official, including his wife and son. About 20 people were killed,
according to the Houthis.
The Yemen war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took
control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international
airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by
Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets.
The war escalated substantially in November 2017, when the
Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran,
that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about
800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own
escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports.
The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then
in June 2018, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on the highly strategic Port Hodeidah in Yemen.
The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian
weapons to the Houthis, as well as a source of income.
The battle over Port Hodeidah continued for years, until November
2021, when the Houthis scored a complete takeover of the port,
marking an important turning point in the war. Tuesday's Houthi
attack on the UAE targets with drones and missiles marks another
turning point.
****
**** Iran's support for the Houthis
****
Since the Yemen war began in 2015, it's been seen as largely a proxy
war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. In the wars between
Sunnis and Shias the following the death of the prophet Mohammed, one
Shia sect was known as the Saydis or "fivers," because of their
allegiance to the fifth Imam descendant. Most Shias, including the
Persians, had allegiance to the twelth Imam descendant, and so they
are sometimes called "twelvers." The Zaydis have become today's
Houthis. Despite this theological dispute, the fivers and the
twelvers identify with each other as not-Sunni Shias, and so the
Iranians are supporting the Houthis in Yemen in a proxy war against
the Arab Sunnis. (See my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy," for the history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.)
Iran is denying that they've had anything to do with Tuesday's
attack by the Houthis on the UAE. However, this claim has
little credibility since the Houthis have no ability to develop
and manufacture the drones and missiles that were used in the
attack.
It seems likely that the Houthis' recent takeover of Port Hodeidah has
enabled the Houthi attack, because Iran can use the port to smuggle
drones and missiles and other weapons to the Houthis. Two weeks ago,
a UN group announced that it would be investigating whether the port
has been militarized
According to Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen:
<QUOTE>"The accusations of the militarization of the ports of
Hodeidah are worrying and the threats of attacking them are
equally disturbing given that these ports are a lifeline for many
Yemenis. [The UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement was]
closely monitoring the situation in the ports and has requested
as part of its mandate to undertake an inspection."<END QUOTE>
Well, we can hardly wait until the UN report comes out. These
UN committees always produce useful results, don't they.
****
**** The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE
****
What is the purpose of the Houthi attack on UAE targets? Here
are some possibilities:
- The Houthis are drunk on their success with the takeover
of the Hodeidah Port, and they may think that with Iran's backing they can
defeat the Saudis and Emiratis, just as the Japanese thought
they could defeat the Americans in 1941.
- Iran has been holding "peace talks" separately with Saudi Arabia
and UAE, and the Houthis may wish to sabotage those talks.
- Iran may wish to send a message that it wants America and
the West to end the sanctions on Iran.
Each one of these objectives is likely to backfire.
Houthi Yemeni military expert Brigadier-General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi
was interviewd on Monday by Russia Today TV, and said the
following:
<QUOTE>"We sent a message [with the Abu Dhabi drone
strike], and the UAE should take this message seriously. The UAE is
not like Saudi Arabia, which is bigger in size, and which can perhaps,
take the hit and absorb the shock. The UAE is a country made of
cardboard and glass. ...
The second thing is that we hope to receive Iranian weapons, and
to have Iranian experts with us. [Our enemies] have Zionist
experts, as well as American and French experts, They have
gathered all of the world's vagabonds in their command center and
in the battlefield. ...
We have the power, the will, and the determination to strike in
the UAE and in Saudi Arabia. If it turns out that the Americans
attacked in Yemen, or if they declare that they did, we will
target the American interests wherever they may be. Wherever they
may be!"<END QUOTE>
Right now, there's a bit of a lull, as both the UAE and the Houthis
decide what to do next. If this is as much of a turning point
as it seems, then we should see some additional military reactions
soon.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there
is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis"
of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major
new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of
1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part
of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus
Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
- UAE vows retaliation for Houthi-claimed attack, but questions emerge over potential Iran role (CNBC, 18-Jan-2022)
- Saudi coalition strikes Houthis after drone attack on UAE (Jerusalem Post, 18-Jan-2022)
- Saudi-led coalition targets Houthi rebels in Yemen after Abu Dhabi attack (The Hill, 18-Jan-2022)
- Oil hits seven-year high as Houthi attack on UAE rattles regional tensions (CNBC, 17-Jan-2022)
- Saudis hit back with deadly airstrikes in Yemen after Houthis’ UAE drone attack (Guardian, London, 18-Jan-2022)
- How the world reacted to the Houthi attack on UAE (Al-Jazeera, 18-Jan-2022)
- Houthi drone attacks expose UAE vulnerabilities, say analysts (Al-Jazeera, 18-Jan-2022)
- Houthi Military Expert Brig.-Gen. Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi: The UAE Is A Country Made Of Cardboard And Glass, It Should Take The Abu Dhabi Drone Strike Seriously; If The U.S. Carries Out Any Attacks In Yemen, We Will Target Its Interests Wherever They May Be (Memri, 18-Jan-2022)
- Yemen: UN calls for talks on Houthi takeover of Hodeidah port (Guardian, London, 15-Nov-2021)
- Coalition in Yemen welcomes UN decision to inspect Hodeidah (Arab News, 13-Jan-2022)
- Former Palestinian Minister: The West Bank Is In Complete Chaos; Palestinian Authority Has Failed To Build Properly Governed Lawful State (Memri, 18-Jan-2022)
Related Articles:
- Ceasefire in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen war holds on the first day (19-Dec-2018)
- The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war (08-Nov-2018)
- Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
- UAE troops and tanks deployed to Yemen's Socotra island in dispute with Saudi Arabia (05-May-2018)
- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden (29-Jan-2018)
- Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
- Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Port Hodeidah, Zaydis, Fivers, Twelvers,
Hans Grundberg, Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
