08-30-2016, 10:08 PM
*** 31-Aug-16 World View -- Uzbekistan's dictator president Karimov suffers stroke, threatening Central Asia stability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Uzbekistan's dictator president Karimov suffers stroke, threatening Central Asia stability
****
![[Image: uzbek.gif]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/maps/uzbek.gif)
Uzbekistan
All that's known with reasonable certainty is that Uzbekistan's
78-year-old ruthless, bloody dictator, Islam Karimov has been
hospitalized with a cerebral hemorrhage. The reason that we think we
know that last bit is because his younger daughter, Lola
Karimova-Tillyaeva, said so on Instagram on Monday. The rumors are
that Karimov has already died. Either way, it's not thought that
he'll ever govern again.
Karimov became leader of Uzbekistan's Communist Party in the 1980s,
the last decade of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed
in 1991, Uzbekistan became an independent country, and Karimov became
president. He's been re-elected to office several times in elections
that are widely believed to have been rigged.
Karimov has been one of the bloodiest and most brutal dictators in the
world, massacring civilians and even boiling protesters alive.
According to Human Rights Watch, "thousands are imprisoned on
politically-motivated charges. Torture is endemic in the criminal
justice system. Authorities continue to crack down on civil society
activists, opposition members, and journalists." Possibly the
bloodiest event in Karimov's tenure was the killing of hundreds of
peaceful protesters in the Fergana valley in 2005.
These are, unfortunately, standard tactics for a dictator of a country
in the decades following a generational crisis civil war. We see it
every day in Syria, where Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is conducting a
genocidal holocaust against the losing ethnic group, the Sunnis. We
see it all the time in Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe, of the
Shona tribe, has conducted a continuing holocaust against the losing
tribe the Nbdele.
The reason that these bloody dictators do what they do is because they
believe that it's necessary to prevent more tribal fighting and, even
more important, it's necessary to prevent the dictator from being
thrown out of office, giving power to the other tribe.
Karimov used more than just torture and atrocities to keep the country
and the region stable. He had relations with all the powers -- the
US, Russia, China, and the other Central Asian nations -- and was able
to play them off one another.
Uzbekistan is right in the middle of Central Asia, and shares a border
with all the other Central Asia states. Instability there would
quickly spread to the entire region. One border that's of particular
importance to Americans is the one with Afghanistan, where American
troops are fighting the Taliban, and the Taliban are gaining strength.
Besides the Taliban, one particularly potent al-Qaeda linked jihadist
group is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), who for the last
decade have been considered the most formidable terrorist group in
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The fragility of the region was illustrated on Tuesday by car bombing
near the Chinese Embassy in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, injuring three
embassy personnel. No one has claimed responsibility, but the
perpetrators might be Uighur separatists or the IMU or a terror group
linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
It's not believed that the attack is related to Karimov's stroke, but
it illustrates the growing threat of jihadist terrorism, especially
since it's believed that several thousand Uzbeks have gone to Syria to
fight Bashar al-Assad.
Thursday is Uzbekistan's independence day. In the base, Karimov has
attended the celebrations and performed a traditional dance. Whether
he's dead or still alive, it's not expected that he'll be doing is
dance this time. We may get a sense of whether there is a solid line
of succession or whether there'll be a succession battle that could
spiral out of control. CNN and Atlantic Sentinel and Irish Times and Stratfor and Xinhua
Related Articles
****
**** Brief generational history of Uzbekistan
****
The historic importance of Uzbekistan is well illustrated by how many
conquering armies swept through. By about 400 BC, the Uzbekistan
region was dominated by tribes of Persian descent and Greek descent,
conquered by Alexander the Great. The region became critical for
trade between China and the Roman Empire. In the 700s AD, only a few
decades after the Prophet Mohammed, the armies of Islam invaded and
took control. Around 1000 AD, a confederation of Turkish tribes known
as the Ghazna conquered part of the region and established a state.
In the thirteenth century the Mongol leader Genghis Khan put together
an alliance of Mongol and Turkic tribes in north central Asia, known
as the Golden Horde, which embarked upon a conquest of much of
Asia. One of the leaders of that alliance was Uzbek, a man who
accepted Sunni Islam as his religion. The Moslem branch of the Golden
Horde became known as the Uzbeks.
In the mid-1800s, the Russians invaded, with an ironic outcome.
Russia had lost its supply of cotton from the southern United States
because of the American Civil War, and the Russians wanted to
establish a safe source of cotton, and so they developed a large
cotton-producing agriculture in Uzbekistan.
World War I and the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 was an extremely
bloody generational crisis war for Uzbekistan, fought between the
Sunni Muslim Uzbeks and the Orthodox Christian Russians. This was
Uzbekistan's last generational crisis war.
World War II thus occurred during a generational Awakening era for the
Uzbeks. Thus the Uzbeks stayed out of the war, and in fact carried out
a "humanitarian mission," according to Turkish history. Russia
drafted thousands of Uzbek men to fight the Nazis, but the the country
itself performed a humanitarian mission by sheltering hundreds of
thousands of refugees from fascist occupied territories.
As part of Stalin's Soviet Union, Uzbekistan became a cotton
powerhouse starting in the 1920s. In support of the cotton trade,
millions of ethnic Russians began pouring into the country, especially
into the fertile Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in the far
eastern portion of the country.
The old Uzbek / Russian fault line became critical again, starting in
the 1980s with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. At that time,
Uzbek militants began joining the Pashtuns in Afghanistan to fight the
Soviets.
1991 was a pivotal year for the Fergana Valley. That was the year
that the Soviet Union collapsed, resulting in the formation of
Uzbekistan as an independent republic. It also resulted in a great
deal of financial hardship for the Russians in the Fergana Valley.
The result was the first signs of Islamic fundamentalism in Uzbekistan
when some unemployed young Muslims seized the Communist Party
headquarters in the city of Namangan in the Fergana Valley.
The leaders of this terrorist action, Tohir Yuldeshev and Juma
Namangani, eventually made their way to Afghanistan in 1996, after the
Taliban had taken control of the government. They joined Osama bin
Laden and al-Qaeda, and formed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU).
The IMU has been playing an important role in terrorist acts in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Karimov's bloody massacre of hundreds of
peaceful protesters in 2005 was an attempt to prevent a violent
takeover by Islamist IMU militants. Journal of Turkish Weekly and San José State University and Advantour
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva,
Russia, Soviet Union, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, China, Kyrgyzstan, al-Qaeda,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Alexander the Great, Mohammed, Genghis Khan, Golden Horde,
Bolshevik Revolution, Fergana Valley, Ferghana Valley
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Uzbekistan's dictator president Karimov suffers stroke, threatening Central Asia stability
- Brief generational history of Uzbekistan
****
**** Uzbekistan's dictator president Karimov suffers stroke, threatening Central Asia stability
****
Uzbekistan
All that's known with reasonable certainty is that Uzbekistan's
78-year-old ruthless, bloody dictator, Islam Karimov has been
hospitalized with a cerebral hemorrhage. The reason that we think we
know that last bit is because his younger daughter, Lola
Karimova-Tillyaeva, said so on Instagram on Monday. The rumors are
that Karimov has already died. Either way, it's not thought that
he'll ever govern again.
Karimov became leader of Uzbekistan's Communist Party in the 1980s,
the last decade of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed
in 1991, Uzbekistan became an independent country, and Karimov became
president. He's been re-elected to office several times in elections
that are widely believed to have been rigged.
Karimov has been one of the bloodiest and most brutal dictators in the
world, massacring civilians and even boiling protesters alive.
According to Human Rights Watch, "thousands are imprisoned on
politically-motivated charges. Torture is endemic in the criminal
justice system. Authorities continue to crack down on civil society
activists, opposition members, and journalists." Possibly the
bloodiest event in Karimov's tenure was the killing of hundreds of
peaceful protesters in the Fergana valley in 2005.
These are, unfortunately, standard tactics for a dictator of a country
in the decades following a generational crisis civil war. We see it
every day in Syria, where Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is conducting a
genocidal holocaust against the losing ethnic group, the Sunnis. We
see it all the time in Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe, of the
Shona tribe, has conducted a continuing holocaust against the losing
tribe the Nbdele.
The reason that these bloody dictators do what they do is because they
believe that it's necessary to prevent more tribal fighting and, even
more important, it's necessary to prevent the dictator from being
thrown out of office, giving power to the other tribe.
Karimov used more than just torture and atrocities to keep the country
and the region stable. He had relations with all the powers -- the
US, Russia, China, and the other Central Asian nations -- and was able
to play them off one another.
Uzbekistan is right in the middle of Central Asia, and shares a border
with all the other Central Asia states. Instability there would
quickly spread to the entire region. One border that's of particular
importance to Americans is the one with Afghanistan, where American
troops are fighting the Taliban, and the Taliban are gaining strength.
Besides the Taliban, one particularly potent al-Qaeda linked jihadist
group is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), who for the last
decade have been considered the most formidable terrorist group in
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The fragility of the region was illustrated on Tuesday by car bombing
near the Chinese Embassy in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, injuring three
embassy personnel. No one has claimed responsibility, but the
perpetrators might be Uighur separatists or the IMU or a terror group
linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
It's not believed that the attack is related to Karimov's stroke, but
it illustrates the growing threat of jihadist terrorism, especially
since it's believed that several thousand Uzbeks have gone to Syria to
fight Bashar al-Assad.
Thursday is Uzbekistan's independence day. In the base, Karimov has
attended the celebrations and performed a traditional dance. Whether
he's dead or still alive, it's not expected that he'll be doing is
dance this time. We may get a sense of whether there is a solid line
of succession or whether there'll be a succession battle that could
spiral out of control. CNN and Atlantic Sentinel and Irish Times and Stratfor and Xinhua
Related Articles
- Uzbekistan closes border to refugees from Kyrgyzstan (15-Jun-2010)
- Jihadists from New York to Uzbekistan flock to Syria to fight (21-May-2014)
- Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)
****
**** Brief generational history of Uzbekistan
****
The historic importance of Uzbekistan is well illustrated by how many
conquering armies swept through. By about 400 BC, the Uzbekistan
region was dominated by tribes of Persian descent and Greek descent,
conquered by Alexander the Great. The region became critical for
trade between China and the Roman Empire. In the 700s AD, only a few
decades after the Prophet Mohammed, the armies of Islam invaded and
took control. Around 1000 AD, a confederation of Turkish tribes known
as the Ghazna conquered part of the region and established a state.
In the thirteenth century the Mongol leader Genghis Khan put together
an alliance of Mongol and Turkic tribes in north central Asia, known
as the Golden Horde, which embarked upon a conquest of much of
Asia. One of the leaders of that alliance was Uzbek, a man who
accepted Sunni Islam as his religion. The Moslem branch of the Golden
Horde became known as the Uzbeks.
In the mid-1800s, the Russians invaded, with an ironic outcome.
Russia had lost its supply of cotton from the southern United States
because of the American Civil War, and the Russians wanted to
establish a safe source of cotton, and so they developed a large
cotton-producing agriculture in Uzbekistan.
World War I and the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 was an extremely
bloody generational crisis war for Uzbekistan, fought between the
Sunni Muslim Uzbeks and the Orthodox Christian Russians. This was
Uzbekistan's last generational crisis war.
World War II thus occurred during a generational Awakening era for the
Uzbeks. Thus the Uzbeks stayed out of the war, and in fact carried out
a "humanitarian mission," according to Turkish history. Russia
drafted thousands of Uzbek men to fight the Nazis, but the the country
itself performed a humanitarian mission by sheltering hundreds of
thousands of refugees from fascist occupied territories.
As part of Stalin's Soviet Union, Uzbekistan became a cotton
powerhouse starting in the 1920s. In support of the cotton trade,
millions of ethnic Russians began pouring into the country, especially
into the fertile Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in the far
eastern portion of the country.
The old Uzbek / Russian fault line became critical again, starting in
the 1980s with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. At that time,
Uzbek militants began joining the Pashtuns in Afghanistan to fight the
Soviets.
1991 was a pivotal year for the Fergana Valley. That was the year
that the Soviet Union collapsed, resulting in the formation of
Uzbekistan as an independent republic. It also resulted in a great
deal of financial hardship for the Russians in the Fergana Valley.
The result was the first signs of Islamic fundamentalism in Uzbekistan
when some unemployed young Muslims seized the Communist Party
headquarters in the city of Namangan in the Fergana Valley.
The leaders of this terrorist action, Tohir Yuldeshev and Juma
Namangani, eventually made their way to Afghanistan in 1996, after the
Taliban had taken control of the government. They joined Osama bin
Laden and al-Qaeda, and formed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU).
The IMU has been playing an important role in terrorist acts in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Karimov's bloody massacre of hundreds of
peaceful protesters in 2005 was an attempt to prevent a violent
takeover by Islamist IMU militants. Journal of Turkish Weekly and San José State University and Advantour
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva,
Russia, Soviet Union, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, China, Kyrgyzstan, al-Qaeda,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Alexander the Great, Mohammed, Genghis Khan, Golden Horde,
Bolshevik Revolution, Fergana Valley, Ferghana Valley
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
