03-09-2022, 11:17 PM
*** 10-Mar-22 World View -- Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
****
![[Image: kerch2.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/kerch2.gif)
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to succeed within a
few days, is currently looking like a debacle.
Russia's president Vladimar Putin ordered hundreds of thousands of
troops into the battle, along with tanks, artillery, warplanes, and
dozens of warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to Ukraine's
south.
Russia is conducting massive genocide and war crimes, bombing and
flattening innocent women and children in one village after another
causing enormous suffering, specifically targeting schools and
hospitals, driving millions of refugees into neighboring countries --
for no discernible reason at all except the sociopathic genocidal mind
of Putin.
Russia has become an international pariah state, condemned by 141
countries in the United Nations General Assembly, with 23 abstentions
(including China), and only five countries opposing the condemnation:
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia itself. Thanks to
international sanctions, Russia's economy is becoming increasingly
distressed.
While Putin is being condemned as an international war criminal,
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being viewed as a
"Churchillian hero," starting with his refusal to flee the country in
the way that Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani had fled.
The Ukrainian people have turned out to be extremely resilient, much
more so than anyone expected, after Russia had simply rolled over
Crimea in 2014. They've prevented Russian troops from taking control
of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other large cities that Russia has attacked,
and so far Kiev has remained out of reach.
The Ukrainians have killed hundreds of Russians, destroyed dozens of
tanks, and shot down tens of Russian warplanes.
This does not mean that Russia will be defeated. Far from it.
Vladimir Putin has a history of reacting to losses by using
increasingly horrific war crimes. In Syria, Russia sent missiles into
school dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden
with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on
civilian neighborhoods, or using Sared gas to kill large groups of
people. The barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons specifically
targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many
women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier than
air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and
children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and
gunfire.
As Putin becomes increasingly desperate, he is expected to increasingly
horrific violence, including the tactics used in Syria and in Chechnya.
If he becomes desperate enough, it's even possible he'll resort
to tactical nuclear weapons.
However, even if he manages to kill
Zelenskyy and subdue the country, the battle will be far from over.
An occupation army of a couple of hundred thousand people is not
nearly enough to fight an insurgency in a country of 44 million
people. Furthermore, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees
in neighboring countries who will be prepared to do what they can
to defeat the Russian occupancy. This would be extremely expensive
for Russia to sustain, and it's not believed he could do so for long.
****
**** Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
****
China and Russia have been historic enemies, with the Chinese and
Russian people hating each other, but the two countries have been
united by their common enemies, the United States and the West.
Nonetheless, China has found it impossible to give a full-throated
endorsement to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is a close ally of
Ukraine, and has invested heavily in Ukraine.
I've previously described long-term delusional geopolitical strategy
of the Chinese Communists to gain hegemony over the entire world.
This analysis was based on a CCP newsletter forwarded to me by a web
site reader. (See "16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy"
)
Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and
the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be
mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These
include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China
will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive
multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI).
The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another
to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of
China making any concession whatsoever.
According to the CCP newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."
This whole delusional fantasy strategy has been torn apart by
Russia's Ukraine invasion. The Chinese Communists had assumed
that the world would welcome Chinese hegemony, but it's clear
that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also make China as
much a pariah as Russia is. The whole strategy of using BRI to
make the world love China has been shown to be ridiculous,
even to the delusional Chinese Communists.
Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that Xi Jinping and the
Chinese Communists will abandon their
plans of world domination. To the contrary, the Chinese Communists
will be a desperate, and will adopt the most
horrific tactics, including a nuclear weapons attack on the
United States. China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for
years, and is too well invested in that goal to abandon it.
Furthermore, China has been preparting a nuclear attack on America
for decades, and will launch it as a time of its choosing.
****
**** South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
****
![[Image: g220309c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g220309c.jpg)
Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post)
Former prosecutor and conservative Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power
Party won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday, defeating
the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, which had
formerly been led by the incumbent president Moon Jae-in. Yoon will
take office on May 10.
Yoon is expected to take a harsher line towards China and North Korea
than did his predecessor Moon, and is expected to be more closely
aligned with US policy than Moon. For example, Yoon has voiced a need
to deploy another American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad)
anti-missile system to deter North Korea. The 2016 installation of the
first Thaad battery in South Korea triggered massive economic
retaliation from China that lasted nearly two years.
By the way, Yoon has developed a reputation for being a "non-woke"
politician. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been attacked by feminist
activists for criticizing sexual harassment "opportunists."
****
**** The Regeneracy
****
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have undoubtedly been shocked at the
unity of the international community to Russia's invasion of campaign.
Putin certainly expected to take advantage of a split among the
countries of Nato, but now the Nato countries seem completely unified.
Even Germany will be sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, in a major
reversal of policy.
This is the generational theory "Regeneracy" that I've been talking
about for years. I've been writing about it domestically, as the
regeneracy of civic unity, where Americans put political differences
aside and unite against the common enemy. Today we're seeing the same
thing internationally, as countries around the world unite against
Russia.
The regeneracy has also united Western-linked countries in Asia.
South Korea's election aligns it more closely with America. Japan has
strongly condemned Russia's invasion, and has announced that it will
end "peace talks" about the Kuril Islands dispute.
The interesting political battle in the next few months will be over
energy. So-called "green" policies in America and Europe have been an
absolutely disaster, as they've made Europe much more dependent on
Russia, and they've raised oil prices so that America and Europe are
funding Russia's war in Ukraine. There is enormous pressure from both
Republicans and Democrats on the Biden administration to abandon the
disastrous "green" policies, and the abandonment of those policies
will be a major sign of the regeneracy in domestic politics.
In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just
as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939.
The US was able to stay out of those wars for 2-3 years. In my
opinion, the European war will trigger a full-scale world war within a
few months or at most a couple of years, with the exact timing
dependent on China's actions, especially in Taiwan.
****
**** The future of Generational Dynamics
****
I am 77 years old, soon to be 78, and I have absolutely no desire to
even try to live through World War III. I'm miserable, depressed, in
intermitten pain, alone, surviving on Social Security, and disgusted
with the Cassandra Curse, which says that I'm treated abusively, even
when (or especially when) I'm right.
Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a
methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on
Forrester's System Dynamics from MIT applied to generational flows,
and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web
sites, generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses
and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true
or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. In addition, I've
written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the
history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism,
Confucianism and Daoism. The major prediction over the last 20 years
has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world
war against China. That time is now approaching. The Russia-Ukraine
war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction
that will lead to a major European war, and within the next year or so
to a world war and a global depression. Nuclear weapons will be used.
I published four books, thinking that they would create some sort of
legacy that would survive me. And they're really good books, in my
opinion. I'm really proud of them. You would think by this time,
they would have generated some interest somewhere, but they haven't.
I've only sold a few dozen copies of each.
I apologize for writing so few articles these last few months. I
simply no longer have the energy to write as much as I used to,
especially in view of the Cassandra Curse. However, I do try to
contribute something to the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Nonetheless, Generational Dynamics may be reaching
the end of the line.
After I'm gone, very few people will even remember Generational
Dynamics, and many of them will remember it only with scorn and
derision as the invention of an old Boomer fossil. There will be
nobody whose selary depends on keeping Generation Dynamics alive, so
Generational Dynamics will die with me.
That's why I'm extending an invitation to any individuals, think
tanks, universities, or other organizations that would like to take on
the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics.
There's wealth of information on my books and on my web sites.
Furthermore, I am available right now to provide guidance and even to
give a professional or college course over zoom. So this is the right
time.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan,
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria,
Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kiev,
South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, People Power Party,
Lee Jae-myung, Moon Jae-in, Democratic Party,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
The Regeneracy
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
- Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
- South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
- The Regeneracy
- The future of Generational Dynamics
****
**** Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
****
Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to succeed within a
few days, is currently looking like a debacle.
Russia's president Vladimar Putin ordered hundreds of thousands of
troops into the battle, along with tanks, artillery, warplanes, and
dozens of warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to Ukraine's
south.
Russia is conducting massive genocide and war crimes, bombing and
flattening innocent women and children in one village after another
causing enormous suffering, specifically targeting schools and
hospitals, driving millions of refugees into neighboring countries --
for no discernible reason at all except the sociopathic genocidal mind
of Putin.
Russia has become an international pariah state, condemned by 141
countries in the United Nations General Assembly, with 23 abstentions
(including China), and only five countries opposing the condemnation:
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia itself. Thanks to
international sanctions, Russia's economy is becoming increasingly
distressed.
While Putin is being condemned as an international war criminal,
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being viewed as a
"Churchillian hero," starting with his refusal to flee the country in
the way that Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani had fled.
The Ukrainian people have turned out to be extremely resilient, much
more so than anyone expected, after Russia had simply rolled over
Crimea in 2014. They've prevented Russian troops from taking control
of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other large cities that Russia has attacked,
and so far Kiev has remained out of reach.
The Ukrainians have killed hundreds of Russians, destroyed dozens of
tanks, and shot down tens of Russian warplanes.
This does not mean that Russia will be defeated. Far from it.
Vladimir Putin has a history of reacting to losses by using
increasingly horrific war crimes. In Syria, Russia sent missiles into
school dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden
with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on
civilian neighborhoods, or using Sared gas to kill large groups of
people. The barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons specifically
targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many
women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier than
air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and
children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and
gunfire.
As Putin becomes increasingly desperate, he is expected to increasingly
horrific violence, including the tactics used in Syria and in Chechnya.
If he becomes desperate enough, it's even possible he'll resort
to tactical nuclear weapons.
However, even if he manages to kill
Zelenskyy and subdue the country, the battle will be far from over.
An occupation army of a couple of hundred thousand people is not
nearly enough to fight an insurgency in a country of 44 million
people. Furthermore, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees
in neighboring countries who will be prepared to do what they can
to defeat the Russian occupancy. This would be extremely expensive
for Russia to sustain, and it's not believed he could do so for long.
****
**** Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
****
China and Russia have been historic enemies, with the Chinese and
Russian people hating each other, but the two countries have been
united by their common enemies, the United States and the West.
Nonetheless, China has found it impossible to give a full-throated
endorsement to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is a close ally of
Ukraine, and has invested heavily in Ukraine.
I've previously described long-term delusional geopolitical strategy
of the Chinese Communists to gain hegemony over the entire world.
This analysis was based on a CCP newsletter forwarded to me by a web
site reader. (See "16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy"
)
Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and
the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be
mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These
include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China
will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive
multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI).
The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another
to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of
China making any concession whatsoever.
According to the CCP newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."
This whole delusional fantasy strategy has been torn apart by
Russia's Ukraine invasion. The Chinese Communists had assumed
that the world would welcome Chinese hegemony, but it's clear
that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also make China as
much a pariah as Russia is. The whole strategy of using BRI to
make the world love China has been shown to be ridiculous,
even to the delusional Chinese Communists.
Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that Xi Jinping and the
Chinese Communists will abandon their
plans of world domination. To the contrary, the Chinese Communists
will be a desperate, and will adopt the most
horrific tactics, including a nuclear weapons attack on the
United States. China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for
years, and is too well invested in that goal to abandon it.
Furthermore, China has been preparting a nuclear attack on America
for decades, and will launch it as a time of its choosing.
****
**** South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
****
Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post)
Former prosecutor and conservative Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power
Party won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday, defeating
the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, which had
formerly been led by the incumbent president Moon Jae-in. Yoon will
take office on May 10.
Yoon is expected to take a harsher line towards China and North Korea
than did his predecessor Moon, and is expected to be more closely
aligned with US policy than Moon. For example, Yoon has voiced a need
to deploy another American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad)
anti-missile system to deter North Korea. The 2016 installation of the
first Thaad battery in South Korea triggered massive economic
retaliation from China that lasted nearly two years.
By the way, Yoon has developed a reputation for being a "non-woke"
politician. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been attacked by feminist
activists for criticizing sexual harassment "opportunists."
****
**** The Regeneracy
****
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have undoubtedly been shocked at the
unity of the international community to Russia's invasion of campaign.
Putin certainly expected to take advantage of a split among the
countries of Nato, but now the Nato countries seem completely unified.
Even Germany will be sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, in a major
reversal of policy.
This is the generational theory "Regeneracy" that I've been talking
about for years. I've been writing about it domestically, as the
regeneracy of civic unity, where Americans put political differences
aside and unite against the common enemy. Today we're seeing the same
thing internationally, as countries around the world unite against
Russia.
The regeneracy has also united Western-linked countries in Asia.
South Korea's election aligns it more closely with America. Japan has
strongly condemned Russia's invasion, and has announced that it will
end "peace talks" about the Kuril Islands dispute.
The interesting political battle in the next few months will be over
energy. So-called "green" policies in America and Europe have been an
absolutely disaster, as they've made Europe much more dependent on
Russia, and they've raised oil prices so that America and Europe are
funding Russia's war in Ukraine. There is enormous pressure from both
Republicans and Democrats on the Biden administration to abandon the
disastrous "green" policies, and the abandonment of those policies
will be a major sign of the regeneracy in domestic politics.
In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just
as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939.
The US was able to stay out of those wars for 2-3 years. In my
opinion, the European war will trigger a full-scale world war within a
few months or at most a couple of years, with the exact timing
dependent on China's actions, especially in Taiwan.
****
**** The future of Generational Dynamics
****
I am 77 years old, soon to be 78, and I have absolutely no desire to
even try to live through World War III. I'm miserable, depressed, in
intermitten pain, alone, surviving on Social Security, and disgusted
with the Cassandra Curse, which says that I'm treated abusively, even
when (or especially when) I'm right.
Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a
methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on
Forrester's System Dynamics from MIT applied to generational flows,
and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web
sites, generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses
and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true
or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. In addition, I've
written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the
history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism,
Confucianism and Daoism. The major prediction over the last 20 years
has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world
war against China. That time is now approaching. The Russia-Ukraine
war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction
that will lead to a major European war, and within the next year or so
to a world war and a global depression. Nuclear weapons will be used.
I published four books, thinking that they would create some sort of
legacy that would survive me. And they're really good books, in my
opinion. I'm really proud of them. You would think by this time,
they would have generated some interest somewhere, but they haven't.
I've only sold a few dozen copies of each.
I apologize for writing so few articles these last few months. I
simply no longer have the energy to write as much as I used to,
especially in view of the Cassandra Curse. However, I do try to
contribute something to the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Nonetheless, Generational Dynamics may be reaching
the end of the line.
After I'm gone, very few people will even remember Generational
Dynamics, and many of them will remember it only with scorn and
derision as the invention of an old Boomer fossil. There will be
nobody whose selary depends on keeping Generation Dynamics alive, so
Generational Dynamics will die with me.
That's why I'm extending an invitation to any individuals, think
tanks, universities, or other organizations that would like to take on
the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics.
There's wealth of information on my books and on my web sites.
Furthermore, I am available right now to provide guidance and even to
give a professional or college course over zoom. So this is the right
time.
Sources:
- Justice icon Yoon Suk-yeol elected new South Korea president, but rocky road ahead (Straits Times, Singapore, 9-Mar-2022)
- Yoon to bolster cooperation with U.S., Japan in dealing with China, N. Korea (Yonhap, South Korea, 10-Mar-2022)
- South Korea elects opposition conservative Yoon Suk Yeol to be next president (CNN, 9-Mar-2022)
- South Korea elects new president Yoon Suk-yeol after nasty race (NY Post, 9-Mar-2022)
- What conservative Yoon Seok-yeol's win as South Korea's president means for US-North Korea relations (ABC News, 9-Mar-2022)
- Anti-feminist political novice: South Korea's new president Yoon (France24, 9-Mar-2022)
- Why some say South Korea's new President Yoon Suk-yeol is 'like Trump' (The Week, London, 9-Mar-2022)
- Yoon Suk-yeol wins South Korea’s presidential election (Al-Jazeera, 9-Mar-2022)
Related Articles:
- China's delusional geopolitical strategy (16-Dec-2020)
- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants (09-Nov-2021)
- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine (19-Apr-2021)
- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion (02-Apr-2021)
- Ukraine and Turkey develop closer relationship amid Russia's aggression (05-Dec-2018)
- Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan,
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria,
Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kiev,
South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, People Power Party,
Lee Jae-myung, Moon Jae-in, Democratic Party,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
The Regeneracy
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
