08-31-2016, 10:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-31-2016, 10:42 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
A US-Russia-India alliance would have a favorable cultural glue as would a Sino-Sunni alignment, and Generationaldynamics uses generational and cultural/political alignments to predict alliances. But this is where Generationaldynamics runs aground in my opinion: countries don't form alliances based on cultural compatibility or whether the common citizenry has a favorable opinion of various countries: Nations make alliances based on national interests. That is why Russia, China and Iran ganging up to attack the US is much more likely than a US/Russia vs China/Arabs war.
This is also true of domestic politics as well: If you used the generational dynamics method to predict the current election, you would likely predict that hillary would be elected. This is because the Cultural and generational DNA of the USA as it existed for the last 100 to 120 years (or the last 5 to 6 generations) to have continuity with that political and cultural DNA, a second Clinton presidency would be favored. However this is not the case as the majority of the American people reject the 2T values and to a partial extent the previous 4T and the previous (missionary/progressive) 2T values. That is why a Trump presidency would occur. That the Current administration attempts to move toward certain alliances, is irrelevant if the incoming administration not only repudiates those policies but also the entire value system of not just the previous administration but repudiates the entire value system of the last 7 or 8 administrations. Once that occurs the course of geopolitical events are likely to move in an entirely different direction altogether.
This is also true of domestic politics as well: If you used the generational dynamics method to predict the current election, you would likely predict that hillary would be elected. This is because the Cultural and generational DNA of the USA as it existed for the last 100 to 120 years (or the last 5 to 6 generations) to have continuity with that political and cultural DNA, a second Clinton presidency would be favored. However this is not the case as the majority of the American people reject the 2T values and to a partial extent the previous 4T and the previous (missionary/progressive) 2T values. That is why a Trump presidency would occur. That the Current administration attempts to move toward certain alliances, is irrelevant if the incoming administration not only repudiates those policies but also the entire value system of not just the previous administration but repudiates the entire value system of the last 7 or 8 administrations. Once that occurs the course of geopolitical events are likely to move in an entirely different direction altogether.
