Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Apr-22 World View -- History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Status of Russia-Ukraine war
  
• Army culture and skill sets
  
• The Mfecane war (1820s)
  
• Vietnam war
  
• Russia's history of crisis and non-crisis wars
  
• Russia's incompetence in the Ukraine invasion
  
• Russia's Winter War invasion of Finland (1939)
  
• Operation Barbarossa (1941), Hitler's invasion of Russia
  
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine
  
• The Regeneracy in Europe, Russia and America
  
• A word of thanks
  

****
**** Status of Russia-Ukraine war
****


Map of Russia-Ukraine war, status on April 2, 2022 (Al-Jazeera)

The purpose of this article is to provide a historical analysis of
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in order to forecast what is most likely
to come next.

Russia has been conducting numerous war crimes, making indiscriminate
attacks on civilians and residential neighborhoods, flattening
villages and cities with illegal cluster bombs, illegal cassette bombs
and illegal thermobaric bombs. Russia hasn't yet begun using illegal
chemical weapons, as they used in Syria and Chechnya, but that's
presumably coming.

There are now some ten million displaced people in Ukraine who have
lost their homes. Three million refugees have flooded into
neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Russia is supposedly withdrawing some forces from around Kiev into the
Donbase in the east, near the border with Russia. Many analysts
believe that they're being redeployed in preparation for a new assault
on Kiev.

****
**** Army culture and skill sets
****

The most common opinion among military analysts is that the Russian
army botched the war, and has been shown to be incompetent. This is
the subject that I want to explore in detail in this article.

I'd like to address the skill sets possessed by an army, and the
societal culture from which the army comes.

Suppose you have an expert gardener. She came from parents who valued
gardening, and raised her to develop powerful gardening skills.

Now suppose you have an expect carpenter. He came from parents who
valued carpentry, and raised him to develop powerful carpentry skills.

Now ask the gardener to do carpentry, and ask the carpenter to do
gardening. Both will do a poor job, and may be totally baffled. You
can train them to do their new jobs, but the training will take many
months, but even after training they won't do their new jobs well,
since they lack the cultural background to do so.

I'm going to make the argument that Russia's army has the skills and
culture to be effective within Russia, as in defending against
Napoleon and Hitler, but does not have the skills and culture to be
effective in an expeditionary war, as is currently occurring in
Ukraine. Before making that argument, I'll give some examples.

****
**** The Mfecane war (1820s)
****

The first example is the Mfecane war ("the crushing") of the 1820s in
southern Africa, a remarkable example of how a leader can change the
skills and culture of an army, and turn it into a formidable
expeditionary fighting force.

The southern portion of Africa in the first decades of the 1800s was
a region in great turmoil, with many different populations competing
for resources.

Among the indigenous populations, the Zulus were an obscure tribe in
the Transvaal, the northern portion of what is now South Africa. The
Zulus went from obscurity to world renown as a result of Shaka, born
in 1787, who became the tribal chief in 1816, and who took
the Zulu from being a tribe to being an empire.

Standard practice in tribal wars of the time was that the fighters of
each warring tribe would throw long spears from a distance at the
fighters of the other tribe. Shaka changed both the skills and the
culture by having his fighters carry short spears, requiring them to
attack the other fighters are close range. Shaka revolutionized
tribal warfare with these new kinds of spears and warfare techniques,
resulting in the deaths of millions of indigenous Africans, by the
time the war climaxed in 1828. Shaka's Zulu Empire left behind vast
uninhabited regions by obliterating the populations that used to live
there.

The great Zulu Empire lasted for decades, until it was destroyed by
the British in 1879 in the bloody Anglo-Zulu war. At the climax of
that crisis war, the Zulus were dispersed, and the Zulu nation
ended.

****
**** Vietnam war
****

A reader expressed surprise that the Russians have had more casualties
in one month than the Americans had in the entire Vietnam war.
Actually, this isn't surprising at all.

A basic tenet of the American culture is that each individual human
life is valuable, and is worthy of saving and protecting. So it's not
surprising that the American armed forces placed a very high priority
on reducing casualties, with the result that American casualties were
low during the Vietnam war.

The Americans had developed plenty of skills for fighting
expeditionary wars. They had fought the Nazis and Imperial Japanese
during World War II, and so by the time of the Vietnam War, they had
developed powerful doctrines for winning wars with few casualties.
That is the American culture.

The North Vietnamese and Chinese cultures are very different. They
place very little value on an individual human life. The result was
different battle tactics that led to many casualties. During the
Vietnam and Korean wars, they used human wave tactics, which means
that they used an infantry of hundreds or thousands of soldiers,
attacking a well-defended enemy position, intended to overwhelm the
enemy by sheer weight of numbers and regardless of inevitable high
casualties.

This cultural difference actually gave the North Vietnamese a big
tactical advantage during the Vietnam War. The North Vietnamese could
suffer huge numbers of casualties and win because Americans did not
want to suffer even a few casualties.

In my recent book, "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam
War," I quoted Bui Diem, Saigon's Ambassador to Washington from 1967
to 1972, who gave his assessment of why America lost the war. He
emphasized the cultural differences between the American and
Vietnamese soldiers:

<QUOTE>"In the eyes of the South Vietnamese, the Americans
created for themselves extra difficulties by making the war too
expensive by the way they fought it. The men from the "affluent
society" brought into Vietnam a new kind of war never seen or even
thought of before. The Vietnamese opened their eyes wide in
bewilderment when they saw U.S. forces supplied with hot meals by
helicopter while still in combat. They saw the thousands of
unnecessary gadgets piled high in huge PXs, the hundreds of planes
crossing the Pacific for the transport of American troops on
rotation. They witnessed the more than generous use of bombs and
ammunition by the U.S. forces, and hours of bombing and strafing
. . . triggered in many instances by mere sniper
fire."<END QUOTE>

I'm not going to pass judgment on whether it's a good idea to send
helicopters to provide hot means to soldiers on the front line. I'm
simply pointing to this as a capability that requires a great deal of
organizational skill and coordination, skills in logistics and command
and control, and indicative of America's capabilities in executing an
expeditionary war.

England has had centuries of experience with expeditionary wars, and
we inherited those skills. We built on those skills since WW II with
the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghan wars. All of these wars have
been politically controversial, but one thing they unequivocally
accomplished was giving the American army the skills to fight an
expeditionary war.

This assessment illustrates powerfully how armies are as different
from one another as gardeners and carpenters. There were vast
differences in both skills and culture between the American and
Vietnamese soldiers. Keep this in mind when we discuss the Russian
army. In particular, the American ability to fight an expeditionary
war with few casualties was and is unmatched in the world. However,
as we saw in Vietnam, this doesn't necessarily mean that the American
army always wins, since the American culture and skills are at
a disadvantage when facing human wave attacks.

****
**** Russia's history of crisis and non-crisis wars
****

The Russian people hate the Chinese people but love the European
people, even though Russia has been invaded by both, the worst
invasion being the hated "Mongol Yoke" that followed the 1209 Mongol
invasion of China, followed by an attack and conquest of almost all
the Russian principalities, making them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire.

The major European invasions of Russia were all non-crisis
(Awakening/Unraveling era) wars for Russia, fought in conjunction with
a crisis war for Europe. These were the Great Northern War with
Sweden during the European War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14),
Napoleon's invasion (1812) following the French Revolution, and
Hitler's invasion during World War II. Russia's army performed very
well in defending "Mother Russia" during these wars, which were
non-crisis wars even though they presented an existential crisis for
Russia.

Russia's crisis wars for the last few centuries were internal
rebellions -- the Razin's peasant rebellion in the 1600s, Pugachev's
Rebellion in the 1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and the
Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s. In other words, Russia has never
had a successful expeditionary crisis war.

This leads me to posit the following claim: That Russia's army has
been and is incompetent when executing an expeditionary war, but is
extremely competent in fighting an invading army within Russia. In
other words, the Russians don't have the culture and skills to fight
an expeditionary war.

I have to add that "Navigator" (David Schroeder), a military historian
posting in the Generational Dynamics forum, disagrees with this claim.
He says that the "trigger" for the Russian army to become extremely
competent is when Mother Russia is being threatened. The current war
in Ukraine may provide the answer to which of these claims is correct.

****
**** Russia's incompetence in the Ukraine invasion
****

There are obvious differences in skill and culture requirements
between an army fighting a defensive internal war versus an army
fighting an expeditionary war in another country. The local civilian
population supports the army in one case, and opposes the army in the
other case.

Much of the incompetence of Russia's army in Ukraine can be
attributed directly to the opposition by the local population.
The following are things that I've heard analysts say to explain
Russia's failure in Ukraine:

• The army was not supplied with enough food and ammunition to
  sustain an invasion lasting more than a few days, and did not have the
  skills to resupply the troops on the front line. The Russian troops
  were forced to raid local stores and homes just to get food, which
  obviously was not supported by the local Ukrainians. In an internal
  war, such as the Soviet army's defense of Stalingrad during WW II, the
  army would have prepositioned food and ammunition, and the local
  population would have supported the Soviet army.
  
  
• The Russian tanks ran out of petrol, and were stuck for weeks
  because they could not be resupplied.
  
  
• The stuck tanks were sitting ducks for Ukrainian anti-tank
  missiles, launched by the army with the help of the local
  population.
  
  
• Morale is very low among the Russian soldiers, because they
  consider the Ukrainians to be their brothers.
  
  
• The Russian is army is extremely hierarchal and only generals can
  make decisions. This is in contrast to the American army, where
  lower-level officers have considerable decision-making ability. In
  the Russia-Ukraine war, this meant that the generals had to personally
  lead the troops. At this time, seven generals have been killed.
  
  
• Russia has failed to capture any large city, because of fierce
  opposition of the Ukraine army and the local population. Even
  Mariupol, which has been under constant Russian bombardment for weeks,
  still has an uncertain status because the local population is fighting
  the Russians.

Contrast that with America's performance in Vietnam, where helicopters
delivered hot meals to the soldiers in the front line. I'm not saying
whether that's good or bad, but it does illustrate a mastery of supply
line management that the Russians do not have.

****
**** Russia's Winter War invasion of Finland (1939)
****

In 1939, Russia's dictator Josef Stalin ordered an invasion of
Finland to gain territory to serve as a buffer between Germany
and Russia. This war is remarkably similar in many ways
to Putin's current invasion of Ukraine. Here's how
history.com describes it:

<QUOTE>"On November 30, 1939, following a series of
ultimatums and failed negotiations, the Soviet Red Army launched
an invasion of Finland with half a million troops.

Though vastly outnumbered and outgunned in what became known as
the “Winter War,” the Finns had the advantage of fighting on home
turf. Led by Marshal Carl Gustaf Mannerheim, they hunkered down
behind a network of trenches, concrete bunkers and field
fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus and beat back repeated
Soviet tank assaults. Elsewhere on the frontier, Finnish ski
troops used the rugged landscape to conduct hit-and-run attacks on
isolated Soviet units. Their guerilla tactics were only aided by
the freezing Finnish winter, which bogged the Soviets down and
made their soldiers easy to spot against snowy terrain. One
Finnish sniper, a farmer named Simo Häyhä, was eventually credited
with over 500 kills.

While the Finns put up a spirited resistance during the winter of
1939-1940, their troops were ultimately no match for the sheer
immensity of the Red Army. In February 1940, following one of the
largest artillery bombardments since World War I, the Soviets
renewed their onslaught and overran the Finnish defenses on the
Karelian Isthmus. With its forces low on ammunition and nearing
the brink of exhaustion, Finland agreed to peace terms the
following month.

The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent
of its territory to the Soviet Union, yet the country maintained
its independence and later squared off against Russia a second
time during World War II. For the Soviets, meanwhile, victory came
at a heavy cost. During just three months of fighting, their
forces suffered over 300,000 casualties compared to around 65,000
for the Finns. The Winter War may have also carried important
consequences for World War II. Among other things, the Red Army’s
lackluster performance is often cited as a key factor in Adolf
Hitler’s mistaken belief that his June 1941 invasion of the Soviet
Union would be a success."<END QUOTE>

Russia's final "victory" over Finland was the result of what was
essentially a human wave attack. Stalin has been quoted as saying,
"Quantity has a quality all its own," referring to such an attack.

So far, the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be very similar to
the Soviet invasion of Finland. "Navigator," the military historian
whom I quoted earlier, said that he believes that the Russians will
make the "post Winter War" adjustments and begin a national
militarization and mass mobilization. This will allow them to
repeat the human wave attacks of 1939-40.

****
**** Operation Barbarossa (1941), Hitler's invasion of Russia
****

On June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler launched Operation
Barbarossa, an invasion of the Soviet Union. More than 3 million
German and Axis troops invaded the Soviet Union along an
1,800-mile-long front. But in this case, the roles of invader and
defender were reversed from the Winter War, with the obvious
consequences.

Hitler's Blitzkrieg victories in Belgium and France made him
overconfident, even though his attempted invasion of Britain was
faltering. In Russia, the Nazi army made numerous blunders, and was
overwhelmed by the long supply lines, the harsh Russian winter, and
the fierce opposition of the Russian civilians, who were defending
"Mother Russia." The Nazis attacked but failed to control any large
cities -- Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow or Stalingrad.
Hitler's defeat in Russia turned the tide decisively toward
the Allies.

****
**** Russia's invasion of Ukraine
****

Few people believe that Russia will agree to any "peace deal" short of
full conquest of Ukraine, and possibly Moldova, Poland, Romania, and
the Baltics as well. Vladimir Putin expected a quick victory in
Ukraine, and as his army suffered one setback after another, Putin is
suffering from Cognitive Dissonance which will only infuriate him and
cause him to double and triple down on the offensive. As suggested,
Putin's next step may be national militarization and mass mobilization
of the Russian population in defense of "Mother Russia," in
preparation for a human wave assault on Ukraine. This would be
similar to Stalin's actions in Finland in the Winter War.

Of course, there are some significant differences between Russia's
invasions of Finland and Ukraine, mainly the possible interventions of
Nato and China. Poland and the East European countries cannot afford
for Ukraine to lose, and China cannot afford for Russia to lose. This
is a formula for a long war, a proxy war, and a war that will spread
to the rest of Europe.

****
**** The Regeneracy in Europe, Russia and America
****

I've written about the generational theory concept of the "Regeneracy"
for years: During a generational Crisis Era, bitterly opposed
political factions put their political differences aside and unite
against the common enemy, in a regeneracy of civic unity for the first
time since the end of the previous crisis war.

In my last article, I described how the Regeneracy applied to
the European nations. All of these countries had significant
political differences, but now they are increasingly united
against Russia.

What about Russia itself? There have been some scattered anecdotes
about Russians turning against Putin, but most reports indicate that
the vast majority of Russians support Putin's war in Ukraine,
especially as he has cut off all foreign media and allow only
state-run media that says that Mother Russia is defending against
Nazis in Ukraine.

In America, the position of the Biden administration is confusion,
and laden with mixed messages, including contradictory statements
by the president and vice-president.

There are numerous reports quoting unnamed administration and military
officials that Biden has been pressuring Ukraine's president Volodymyr
Zelenskyy to accept any peace deal offered by the Russians, even one
that gives up significant territory to the Russians. Biden's
motivation would be that any other outcome would be a block to his
fanatical support of the "green new deal."

However, it's increasingly clear every day that Biden's war on the
domestic fossil fuel industry is causing huge spikes in energy prices
and inflation, which is causing Europe to suffer, and is providing the
funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Zelenskyy is considered a
hero by many Americans, while Vladimir Putin is considered evil incarnate,
and this is causing many Democrats and Republicans to demand that
Biden change policies. Biden has been forced to speed up military aid
and weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The pressure is growing to support
and encourage more domestic development of gas and oil, rather than
beg Iran and Venezuela to produce more. This is the Regeneracy
process in America, and it is continuing.

****
**** A word of thanks
****

After my last article, I was pleasantly surprised by the number of
people who have written to me to wish me well, and to tell me how
valuable my articles have been by providing a non-ideological
explanation of what's actually going on in the world. By applying
modern generational theory to historical and current events, I've
apparently filled a very important need for a few thousand people,
much more than I previously realized. It makes me want to go on, as
best as I can.

If any organization or college would like to set it up, I would be
willing to give a Zoom course on Generational Dynamics. Here's the
blurb: Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a
methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on
Forrester's MIT System Dynamics applied to generational flows, and
incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web sites,
generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles
with thousands of analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, and they've all come true or are trending true. None has
been proven wrong. In addition, I've written four books on the
history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the history and theology of
Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Daoism. The
major prediction over the last 20 years has been that we are headed
for a global financial crisis and a world war against China. That
time is now approaching. So now, the Russia-Ukraine war is just
beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction that will lead
to a major European war, and within a couple of years to a world war
and a global depression.

I would also like to repeat my invitation to some organization or
college that would like to take on the responsibility on further
development of Generational Dynamics.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the
Vietnam War: How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the
Vietnam War" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021
Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738645/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting
America's Destiny",
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020,
Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99,
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/

Sources:

• Live Updates / Russia-Ukraine live news: Ukraine says entire Kyiv region retaken (Al-Jazeera, 2-Apr-2022)
  
• Russia vs Finland, 1939 / What Was the Winter War? (History.com, 3-Sep-2018)
  
• Hitler vs Russia, 1941 / Operation Barbarossa (History.com, 5-May-2021)

Related Articles:

• Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine (10-Mar-2022)
  
  
• China's delusional geopolitical strategy (16-Dec-2020)
  
  
• Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants (09-Nov-2021)
  
  
• Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion (02-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Ukraine headed for a confrontation with Putin (28-Nov-2004)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Nato,
South Africa, Zulu Empire, Shaka, Vietnam War, Korean War,
China, North Vietnam, Human wave tactics, Bui Diem,
Mongols, Mongol Yoke,
War of the Spanish Succession, Napoleon,
French Revolution, Adolf Hitler, World War II,
Finland, Winter War, Operation Barbarossa,
Blitzkrieg, France, Belgium,
Leningrad, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Stalingrad

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John J. Xenakis
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