04-09-2022, 10:12 PM
*** 10-Apr-22 World View -- Ukraine war causes chaos in Asia -- Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Philippines
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
****
![[Image: g220409b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g220409b.jpg)
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday
In 2011, sharp increases in global food prices led protests that
started in Tunisia and spread like wildfire across the entire
Mideast in something called the "Arab Awakening." There were
coups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and wars in Yemen and Syria
are continuing to this day.
With global food and fuel prices spiking, unrest is growing in several
Asian nations, and there is the prospect of a new wildfire spreading
across Asia.
Ukraine has been the largest wheat exporter in the world, with
countries in Asia, the Mideast and Africa largely dependent on
Ukraine's exports through the Black Sea. But now Russia has shut down
ports in the Black Sea, with the result that there are massive
stockpiles of wheat in Ukraine that can't be exported. Russia's port
blockade is creating global shortages of wheat, corn and cooking oils,
resulting in food shortages and high food prices.
Fertilizer and fuel prices have also been spiking globally. This is
also caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine, but is also caused by
President Biden's fanatical attack on the the American fossil fuel
industry.
****
**** Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
****
Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades,
with shortages of food and fuel, and steep price rises. There are
daily power custs, and people hae to queue for hours to get cooking
gas and diesel.
This has led to days of sometimes violent anti-government protest,
with demands that president Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down.
Watching the street protests on al-Jazeera, I saw many protesters
carrying signs with slogans. Two of the most amusing slogans that I
noticed were the following:
diplomacy," typically signing deals with the following terms:
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China. Furthermore, China not only has control of the
Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large enclave of
Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the seaport.
The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka.
Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back. This debt crisis is on top of the spike in food and fuel
prices, and is triggering large anti-government riots that could
spiral.
****
**** Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
****
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, after
losing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday. A new prime
minister will be chosen next week.
Khan had created a constitutional crisis a week ago when he tried to
prevent the no-confidence vote from occurring by dissolving parliament
and calling for new elections. However, Pakistan's Supreme Court
declared this to be illegal, and said that the no-confidence vote had
to go ahead. So it did go ahead, and Khan lost.
However, it's far from clear that Khan will go quietly. He claims
that he will not recognize an opposition government.
He also claims, without evidence, that there was a US-led conspiracy
to remove him. It's pretty standard behavior for any politician
around the world to blame their problems on the United States, and
Khan is no exception.
Many people fear that Khan will refuse to step down, but will assume
dictatorial power to prevent the opposition party and prime minister
from taking power. This could lead to violence or even a new civil
war. It's been 75 since since the 1947 Partition War between Hindus
and Muslims that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan, so, like much of the world, Pakistan is
overdue for a new generational Crisis war. The spike in food and fuel
price is hitting Karachi and the interior very hard, and that might be
the trigger.
****
**** Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China
****
Chinese coast guard vessels and warships have been harassing
Philippines fishing and research vessels in Philippine waters adjacent
to the South China Sea. This harassment activity has been going on
for years, as China has illegally annexed and militarized the South
China Sea, including waters historically part of the Philippines,
Vietnam, and other countries. When I did my research for my book
"World View: War between China and Japan," I found that China has
absolutely no historical claim to the South China Sea, and this is
consistent the finding of the UN court in the Hague that China's claim
to the South China Sea is illegal. China's claims are simply a hoax.
Ever since Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte came to power in 2016,
he has sucked up to China.
In fact, in 2018, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat of war explicit.
Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own
territorial waters, then China will go to war. Duterte concluded:
<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>
So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.
In a phone call on Friday between Duterte and Xi Jinping, Duterte
continued his policy of appeasing China, while Xi promised to invest
more money in the Philippines. However, Duterte's term as president
will end in June, and a new president may or may not continue the
policy of appeasing China.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Arab Awakening,
Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, China, debt trap, Hambantota seaport,
Pakistan, Imran Khan, Partition war,
Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
- Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
- Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
- Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China
**** Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
****
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday
In 2011, sharp increases in global food prices led protests that
started in Tunisia and spread like wildfire across the entire
Mideast in something called the "Arab Awakening." There were
coups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and wars in Yemen and Syria
are continuing to this day.
With global food and fuel prices spiking, unrest is growing in several
Asian nations, and there is the prospect of a new wildfire spreading
across Asia.
Ukraine has been the largest wheat exporter in the world, with
countries in Asia, the Mideast and Africa largely dependent on
Ukraine's exports through the Black Sea. But now Russia has shut down
ports in the Black Sea, with the result that there are massive
stockpiles of wheat in Ukraine that can't be exported. Russia's port
blockade is creating global shortages of wheat, corn and cooking oils,
resulting in food shortages and high food prices.
Fertilizer and fuel prices have also been spiking globally. This is
also caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine, but is also caused by
President Biden's fanatical attack on the the American fossil fuel
industry.
****
**** Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
****
Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades,
with shortages of food and fuel, and steep price rises. There are
daily power custs, and people hae to queue for hours to get cooking
gas and diesel.
This has led to days of sometimes violent anti-government protest,
with demands that president Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down.
Watching the street protests on al-Jazeera, I saw many protesters
carrying signs with slogans. Two of the most amusing slogans that I
noticed were the following:
- "U Divided us for a seat. Today V R uniting to throw U out
of the seat."
- "No need sex. The government f-cks me daily."
diplomacy," typically signing deals with the following terms:
- China loans the country a large amount of money at a high
interest rate to build an infrastructure project that will benefit
China. The money loaned is too large to ever hope to pay it back, and
a default leads to China's full control of the infrastructure project,
and other country assets.
- China creates an enclave of Chinese citizens in the country to do
the work for the infrastructure project, shutting out the local
workforce. Their salaries are paid out of the loan money.
- China purchases all services and supplies for the project from
Chinese entities, so the local businesses do not benefit from the
project.
- China pays off the government leaders with bribes to keep them
quiet, and to guarantee that the terms of the contract will remain
secret.
- The result is that country has to repay the loan twice, once to
purchase goods and services from China and to pay the Chinese workers'
salaries, and again to repay the loan to Beijing, with interest.
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China. Furthermore, China not only has control of the
Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large enclave of
Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the seaport.
The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka.
Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back. This debt crisis is on top of the spike in food and fuel
prices, and is triggering large anti-government riots that could
spiral.
****
**** Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
****
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, after
losing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday. A new prime
minister will be chosen next week.
Khan had created a constitutional crisis a week ago when he tried to
prevent the no-confidence vote from occurring by dissolving parliament
and calling for new elections. However, Pakistan's Supreme Court
declared this to be illegal, and said that the no-confidence vote had
to go ahead. So it did go ahead, and Khan lost.
However, it's far from clear that Khan will go quietly. He claims
that he will not recognize an opposition government.
He also claims, without evidence, that there was a US-led conspiracy
to remove him. It's pretty standard behavior for any politician
around the world to blame their problems on the United States, and
Khan is no exception.
Many people fear that Khan will refuse to step down, but will assume
dictatorial power to prevent the opposition party and prime minister
from taking power. This could lead to violence or even a new civil
war. It's been 75 since since the 1947 Partition War between Hindus
and Muslims that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan, so, like much of the world, Pakistan is
overdue for a new generational Crisis war. The spike in food and fuel
price is hitting Karachi and the interior very hard, and that might be
the trigger.
****
**** Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China
****
Chinese coast guard vessels and warships have been harassing
Philippines fishing and research vessels in Philippine waters adjacent
to the South China Sea. This harassment activity has been going on
for years, as China has illegally annexed and militarized the South
China Sea, including waters historically part of the Philippines,
Vietnam, and other countries. When I did my research for my book
"World View: War between China and Japan," I found that China has
absolutely no historical claim to the South China Sea, and this is
consistent the finding of the UN court in the Hague that China's claim
to the South China Sea is illegal. China's claims are simply a hoax.
Ever since Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte came to power in 2016,
he has sucked up to China.
In fact, in 2018, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat of war explicit.
Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own
territorial waters, then China will go to war. Duterte concluded:
<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>
So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.
In a phone call on Friday between Duterte and Xi Jinping, Duterte
continued his policy of appeasing China, while Xi promised to invest
more money in the Philippines. However, Duterte's term as president
will end in June, and a new president may or may not continue the
policy of appeasing China.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources
- EXCLUSIVE Sri Lanka to seek $3 billion to stave off crisis (Reuters, 9-Apr-2022)
- Imran Khan ousted as Pakistan's PM after key vote (BBC, 9-Apr-2022)
- Imran Khan: What led to charismatic Pakistan PM's downfall (BBC, 9-Apr-2022)
- Who is Shehbaz Sharif, seen as frontrunner for next Pakistan PM? (Al-Jazeera, 9-Apr-2022)
- Philippines' Duterte, China's Xi call for restraint in South China Sea (Reuters, 9-Apr-2022)
- China warns Philippines against military blocs, promises more investment (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8-Apr-2022)
- Ukraine Corn, Wheat Exports Will Plummet Further, U.S. Says (Bloomberg, 9-Apr-2022)
- History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war (03-Apr-2022)
- Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine (10-Mar-2022)
- ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing (25-Apr-2019)
- Sri Lanka declares state of emergency after Buddhist-Muslim violence (07-Mar-2018)
- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement (21-Nov-2018)
- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea (11-Sep-2018)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis (25-Oct-2018)
- Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
- US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid (03-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Arab Awakening,
Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, China, debt trap, Hambantota seaport,
Pakistan, Imran Khan, Partition war,
Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
