09-09-2016, 10:13 PM
*** 10-Sep-16 World View -- Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds, as US-Russia announce another peace deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey presses to establish a 'no-fly zone' in northern Syria
****
![[Image: g160909b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160909b.jpg)
Hadiya Yousef, Kurdish official leading the effort to create Rojava, a new Kurdish 'federal system' in Syria. (Reuters)
Turkey is continuing with its invasion of Syria, known as Operation
Euphrates Shield, now in its third week. On Thursday, the 15th day of
the operation, Turkey announced that the operation had killed 110 of
the enemy, where the enemy included both fighters from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and also fighters from the
Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
The Turks did not announce how many of the 110 killed were from ISIS
and how many from the YPG, but Turkish officials have said that a
major objective of the invasion was to drive the Kurdish forces back
east, to the other side of the Euphrates River.
Turkey's tanks, planes and special forces crossed the border into
Syria on August 24, backed up by around 1,500 anti-Assad Syrian rebels
called the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Turkey's forces were rushed into
action to drive ISIS out of Syria's border city of Jarablus before the
Kurdish YPG beat them to it.
Now that Turkey's army and the FSA are in control of a large section
of northern Syria, Turkey wants them to stay there by forming a "safe
zone" for refugees. At last week's G20 summit meeting, Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan restated this objective, and also
criticized Syria's president Bashar al-Assad:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"At the leaders' summit in Antalya, we said that the
> Syrian crisis could be solved by creating a safe zone for the
> refugees, and we reiterated this. Not a single country took a
> solid step; the Syrian subject continues to be a bleeding
> wound. ...
>
> Right now, in Syria, 600,000 civilians lost their lives. To still
> say 'let Assad stay' seems to me like an embarrassment to
> humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Erdogan also wants the safe zone to be a "no-fly zone," enforced by
the US coalition of warplanes fighting ISIS. However, the Obama
administration opposes a no-fly zone, according to national security
advisor Ben Rhodes:
> [indent]<QUOTE>We do not think a no-fly zone would resolve the
> fundamental issues on the ground because there continues to be
> fighting on the ground.
>
> A no-fly zone would necessarily only be contained to one specific
> area, and we have problems and violence across the
> country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, Rhodes also congratulated Turkey on the operation in
Jarablus:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It has been a key priority for a long time.
>
> If we can seal that border using Turkish forces, opposition
> forces, with our logistical and air support, I think that would
> help us make a substantial gain against ISIS."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So if I understand Rhodes correctly, the intention is to for Turkish
and FSA forces to remain in place in northern Syria, protected by
coalition warplanes. What's the difference between that and a safe
zone / no-fly zone? I can't tell the difference.
If it isn't a safe zone, then ISIS and the Kurds will attack Jarablus
again. If it isn't protected by coalition air power, then it will be
attacked by Syrian regime warplanes. So we'll have to wait and see
what's going on. Reuters and Middle East Monitor and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
****
**** Turkey's forces and Kurdish forces set to clash in Manbij
****
In January 2014, ISIS captured the city of Manbij, with over 100,000
people, south of Jarablus, west of the Euphrates River.
Early in August, the Kurds had scored a major victory by defeating
ISIS in the city of Manbij. In capturing Manbij, The Kurds' objective
was to continue westward and to control a long strip of land in
northern Syria, and declare an independent state called Rojava,
something that's strongly opposed by Turkey.
Now Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that Turkey's
military operation will continue southward, first to expel ISIS from
the city of Al-Bab, and then to expel the Kurds from the city of
Manbij.
US officials have asked their allies, the YPG Kurds, to retreat from
Manbij and move back to the eastern side of the Euphrates River, but
Hadiya Yousef, a Syrian Kurd politician, says that the Kurds have no
intention of retreating:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have decided to convene a meeting of the founding
> assembly of the federal system at the start of October, and we
> will declare our system in northern Syrian.
>
> We will not retreat from this project. On the contrary, we will
> work to implement it. The Turkish intervention will not obstruct
> us."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Yousef is co-chair of a 151-member council including Kurds, Arabs,
Turkmen, Assyrians and other groups that will approve a new
constitution known as a "social contract" that plans to form Rojava,
which they describe as a new "federal system" in Syria.
According to Erdogan, both ISIS and the YPG Kurds are terrorists.
However, the Turks and the Kurds are both allies of the United States,
and it looks like they'll be fighting each other. Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Reuters (12-April)
Related Articles
****
**** US and Russia once again announced a peace deal in Syria
****
After what has been described as over ten hours of arguing, US
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov announced a new "cessation of hostilities," to begin on Monday,
September 12, and last seven days.
The "bedrock of the agreement," according to Kerry, will be to prevent
the air forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad from flying combat
missions that target the "moderate rebels," which would exclude the
al-Nusra Front and ISIS. In particular, the agreement would prevent
al-Assad's warplanes from dropping barrel bombs on civilian
neighborhoods, marketplaces, hospitals and schools.
After the cessation of hostilities has been in place for seven days,
then the peace agreement will be extended to include al-Nusra Front,
which in July announced that it had split with al-Qaeda, and renamed
itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
We've now had several years of peace agreements, peace envoys,
cessations of hostilities, but the core problem has always been the
psychopathic Bashar al-Assad, who considers all Sunnis to be like
cockroaches to be exterminated.
In this new peace deal, the Russians have committed to keeping
al-Assad from bombing civilians with barrel bombs. I don't expect
anything to be different this time, but we'll have to wait and see.
BBC
and CNN and Russia Today
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Operation Euphrates Shield,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish People’s Protection Units, YPG, Rojava,
Jarablus, Manbij, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Ben Rhodes, al-Bab, Hadiya Yousef, John Kerry, Russia, Sergei Lavrov,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey presses to establish a 'no-fly zone' in northern Syria
- Turkey's forces and Kurdish forces set to clash in Manbij
- US and Russia once again announced a peace deal in Syria
****
**** Turkey presses to establish a 'no-fly zone' in northern Syria
****
Hadiya Yousef, Kurdish official leading the effort to create Rojava, a new Kurdish 'federal system' in Syria. (Reuters)
Turkey is continuing with its invasion of Syria, known as Operation
Euphrates Shield, now in its third week. On Thursday, the 15th day of
the operation, Turkey announced that the operation had killed 110 of
the enemy, where the enemy included both fighters from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and also fighters from the
Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
The Turks did not announce how many of the 110 killed were from ISIS
and how many from the YPG, but Turkish officials have said that a
major objective of the invasion was to drive the Kurdish forces back
east, to the other side of the Euphrates River.
Turkey's tanks, planes and special forces crossed the border into
Syria on August 24, backed up by around 1,500 anti-Assad Syrian rebels
called the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Turkey's forces were rushed into
action to drive ISIS out of Syria's border city of Jarablus before the
Kurdish YPG beat them to it.
Now that Turkey's army and the FSA are in control of a large section
of northern Syria, Turkey wants them to stay there by forming a "safe
zone" for refugees. At last week's G20 summit meeting, Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan restated this objective, and also
criticized Syria's president Bashar al-Assad:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"At the leaders' summit in Antalya, we said that the
> Syrian crisis could be solved by creating a safe zone for the
> refugees, and we reiterated this. Not a single country took a
> solid step; the Syrian subject continues to be a bleeding
> wound. ...
>
> Right now, in Syria, 600,000 civilians lost their lives. To still
> say 'let Assad stay' seems to me like an embarrassment to
> humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Erdogan also wants the safe zone to be a "no-fly zone," enforced by
the US coalition of warplanes fighting ISIS. However, the Obama
administration opposes a no-fly zone, according to national security
advisor Ben Rhodes:
> [indent]<QUOTE>We do not think a no-fly zone would resolve the
> fundamental issues on the ground because there continues to be
> fighting on the ground.
>
> A no-fly zone would necessarily only be contained to one specific
> area, and we have problems and violence across the
> country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, Rhodes also congratulated Turkey on the operation in
Jarablus:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It has been a key priority for a long time.
>
> If we can seal that border using Turkish forces, opposition
> forces, with our logistical and air support, I think that would
> help us make a substantial gain against ISIS."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So if I understand Rhodes correctly, the intention is to for Turkish
and FSA forces to remain in place in northern Syria, protected by
coalition warplanes. What's the difference between that and a safe
zone / no-fly zone? I can't tell the difference.
If it isn't a safe zone, then ISIS and the Kurds will attack Jarablus
again. If it isn't protected by coalition air power, then it will be
attacked by Syrian regime warplanes. So we'll have to wait and see
what's going on. Reuters and Middle East Monitor and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy (22-Aug-2016)
****
**** Turkey's forces and Kurdish forces set to clash in Manbij
****
In January 2014, ISIS captured the city of Manbij, with over 100,000
people, south of Jarablus, west of the Euphrates River.
Early in August, the Kurds had scored a major victory by defeating
ISIS in the city of Manbij. In capturing Manbij, The Kurds' objective
was to continue westward and to control a long strip of land in
northern Syria, and declare an independent state called Rojava,
something that's strongly opposed by Turkey.
Now Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that Turkey's
military operation will continue southward, first to expel ISIS from
the city of Al-Bab, and then to expel the Kurds from the city of
Manbij.
US officials have asked their allies, the YPG Kurds, to retreat from
Manbij and move back to the eastern side of the Euphrates River, but
Hadiya Yousef, a Syrian Kurd politician, says that the Kurds have no
intention of retreating:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have decided to convene a meeting of the founding
> assembly of the federal system at the start of October, and we
> will declare our system in northern Syrian.
>
> We will not retreat from this project. On the contrary, we will
> work to implement it. The Turkish intervention will not obstruct
> us."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Yousef is co-chair of a 151-member council including Kurds, Arabs,
Turkmen, Assyrians and other groups that will approve a new
constitution known as a "social contract" that plans to form Rojava,
which they describe as a new "federal system" in Syria.
According to Erdogan, both ISIS and the YPG Kurds are terrorists.
However, the Turks and the Kurds are both allies of the United States,
and it looks like they'll be fighting each other. Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Reuters (12-April)
Related Articles
- Wild celebrations in Manbij Syria, after major defeat for ISIS (14-Aug-2016)
- Turkey doubles down on shelling Kurds in Syria (15-Feb-2016)
****
**** US and Russia once again announced a peace deal in Syria
****
After what has been described as over ten hours of arguing, US
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov announced a new "cessation of hostilities," to begin on Monday,
September 12, and last seven days.
The "bedrock of the agreement," according to Kerry, will be to prevent
the air forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad from flying combat
missions that target the "moderate rebels," which would exclude the
al-Nusra Front and ISIS. In particular, the agreement would prevent
al-Assad's warplanes from dropping barrel bombs on civilian
neighborhoods, marketplaces, hospitals and schools.
After the cessation of hostilities has been in place for seven days,
then the peace agreement will be extended to include al-Nusra Front,
which in July announced that it had split with al-Qaeda, and renamed
itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
We've now had several years of peace agreements, peace envoys,
cessations of hostilities, but the core problem has always been the
psychopathic Bashar al-Assad, who considers all Sunnis to be like
cockroaches to be exterminated.
In this new peace deal, the Russians have committed to keeping
al-Assad from bombing civilians with barrel bombs. I don't expect
anything to be different this time, but we'll have to wait and see.
BBC
and CNN and Russia Today
Related Articles
- 18-May-16 Syria peace talks in Vienna collapse in farce - again (18-May-2016)
- During 'peace process' Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone' (26-Jul-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Operation Euphrates Shield,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish People’s Protection Units, YPG, Rojava,
Jarablus, Manbij, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Ben Rhodes, al-Bab, Hadiya Yousef, John Kerry, Russia, Sergei Lavrov,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
